95% probability Apple holds its fall keynote in the week of 7 Sep 2026, unveils the iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max, and ships the Pro models in September. A structural call on a decade-plus annual cadence. Resolves ~30 Sep 2026 via Apple Newsroom.
Reporting points to an Apple keynote in the week of 7 Sep 2026 (likely 8–9 Sep), with the iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max on sale ~18 Sep. The standard iPhone 18 / 18e slip to spring 2027; a foldable iPhone is expected alongside the Pro but is not part of the scored lock. Source: apple.com / Apple Newsroom; resolves ~30 Sep 2026.
We lock a binary: Apple holds a fall product event in the week of 7 Sep 2026 and the iPhone 18 Pro & iPhone 18 Pro Max go on sale before 30 Sep 2026, per Apple Newsroom. Confidence 95%.
Apple has launched flagship iPhones at a September event every year for over a decade; the Pro tier ships in September even in years when cheaper variants slip. We scope the lock to the Pro models going on sale in September — the structural certainty — and exclude spec rumours and the foldable, whose timing is softer. Confidence 95%, not higher, only for the residual of a supply-chain or force-majeure slip. Resolves against Apple's own announcement and sale date.
RAOSCAFF locks P-88 on 2026-06-24, before Apple's fall event. Scored on whether Apple holds a keynote in the week of 7 Sep 2026 and the iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max go on sale before 30 Sep 2026.
Scored on the Pro models only — the standard iPhone 18/18e (spring 2027) and the foldable are noted but not part of the lock.