92% probability China's official Q3 2026 real GDP growth prints at or above 4.5% YoY — the floor of the 4.5%–5% national target. A structural call on the reliability of the reported number, not on the underlying economy. Resolves ~mid-Oct 2026 via the NBS.
Beijing set a 2026 growth target of 4.5%–5% at the March Two Sessions; reported quarterly prints have landed in or just under the target band, with the first half of 2026 tracking near 5%. The 4.5% bar is the bottom of the official target. Source: National Bureau of Statistics official Q3 2026 GDP release (stats.gov.cn); resolves ~18 Oct 2026.
We lock a binary: China's official National Bureau of Statistics Q3 2026 real GDP growth prints at or above 4.5% year-on-year, per the NBS release. Confidence 92%.
Beijing's 4.5%–5% full-year target functions as a policy floor, and the reported quarterly number reliably lands in or near that band; H1 2026 tracked close to 5%. We lock the floor (4.5%), not the central estimate, so the call survives a soft quarter. Confidence 92%, not higher, because tariff pressure and weak domestic demand could push a single quarter to print at or just below the floor. Resolves against the official NBS figure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-89 on 2026-06-24, before the Q3 release. Scored against China's official Q3 2026 real GDP YoY growth versus a 4.5% floor.
Scored against the official reported figure (the published number), not an independent estimate — to keep resolution unambiguous.