93% probability ASML's Q2 2026 total net sales land at or above €8.2bn — a cushioned floor below its own €8.4–9.0bn guidance. Q1 came in at €8.8bn and full-year guidance was raised to €36–40bn. Resolves ~16 Jul 2026 via ASML.
At its Q1 2026 results (15 Apr 2026) ASML reported €8.8bn net sales, guided Q2 to €8.4–9.0bn, and raised full-year 2026 guidance to €36–40bn on AI-driven EUV/High-NA demand. Our €8.2bn floor sits below the low end of the company's own Q2 guide. Source: ASML Q2 2026 results release (asml.com/en/investors); resolves ~16 Jul 2026.
We lock a binary: ASML's Q2 2026 total net sales land at or above €8.2 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.
ASML guided Q2 2026 to €8.4–9.0bn and beat Q1 at €8.8bn; our €8.2bn bar sits below the low end of that guide, so the call survives a modest revenue-recognition slip between quarters. Confidence 93%, not higher, because lithography revenue can shift quarter-to-quarter on shipment timing and acceptance. Resolves against ASML's reported Q2 net sales.
RAOSCAFF locks P-90 on 2026-06-24, before the Q2 release. Scored against ASML's reported Q2 2026 total net sales versus an €8.2bn floor.
Floor sits below the company's own €8.4–9.0bn guide — a cushioned guidance-floor call, not a forecast of the exact number.