85% probability the Bank of Japan keeps its policy rate at 1.0% at its July 2026 meeting — no back-to-back hike after the June increase to 1.0%, the highest since 1995. A calibrated central-bank call. Resolves end-July via the BoJ statement.
The BoJ lifted its short-term rate 25bp to 1.0% on 16 Jun 2026 (a 7–1 vote), the highest since 1995, and signalled further but data-dependent hikes. Back-to-back hikes are rare for the BoJ, making a July hold the base case. Source: Bank of Japan July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting statement (boj.or.jp); resolves ~31 Jul 2026.
We lock a binary: the Bank of Japan keeps its uncollateralized overnight call rate target at 1.0% at its July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, per the BoJ statement. Confidence 85%.
Having just hiked to 1.0% in June, the BoJ's modus operandi is to pause and assess rather than move at consecutive meetings; a July hold is the base case. We hold confidence at 85%, not higher, because policymakers explicitly flagged further hikes toward a ~2% neutral rate and a fresh yen or inflation shock could pull a move forward. Resolves against the July statement.
RAOSCAFF locks P-91 on 2026-06-24, after the June hike. Scored on whether the BoJ keeps its policy rate at 1.0% at the July 2026 meeting.
Scored on the July decision only — the BoJ's signalled later-2026 hikes are acknowledged but out of this window.