80% probability Novo Nordisk's Wegovy franchise sales grow sequentially (Q2 above Q1) at the 5 Aug 2026 report, on an oral-pill launch that passed 3M US scripts by June. We lock Novo's own sequential growth — Lilly's Zepbound leads the overall market. Resolves 5 Aug 2026.
Oral Wegovy launched in the US in January 2026 and passed 3 million prescriptions by the June ADA meeting (Q1 oral sales ~DKK 2.26bn / ~$355M), capturing roughly a third of new-to-brand obesity scripts on top of the injectable base. Eli Lilly's Zepbound leads the overall US obesity market. Source: Novo Nordisk Q2 2026 results, 5 Aug 2026 (novonordisk.com/investors).
We lock a binary: Novo Nordisk's total Wegovy franchise sales in Q2 2026 are higher than in Q1 2026, per the company's 5 Aug 2026 report. Confidence 80%.
Oral Wegovy passed 3 million US prescriptions within five months of its January launch and is pulling in patients new to GLP-1 therapy, so the franchise's sequential trajectory points up. We hold 80%, not higher, because the injectable base faces Eli Lilly's Zepbound — which leads the overall obesity market — and pricing/rebate dynamics could offset volume. Note: this locks Novo's own quarter-on-quarter Wegovy growth, not market-share leadership. Resolves against Novo's reported Wegovy revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-92 on 2026-06-24, before the 5 Aug report. Scored on whether total Wegovy franchise sales in Q2 2026 exceed Q1 2026.
Locks Novo's own sequential Wegovy growth — explicitly NOT category share, where Eli Lilly's Zepbound leads.