93% probability Spotify's Q2 2026 MAUs land ≥770M and Premium subscribers ≥296M — cushioned floors below its own 778M / 299M guidance. Q1 hit 761M MAU / 293M subs, ahead of guidance. Resolves late July 2026 via the shareholder letter.
Spotify reported 761M MAU and 293M Premium subscribers in Q1 2026 (beating its 759M MAU guide) and guided Q2 to 778M MAU and 299M subscribers. Our floors (770M MAU, 296M subs) sit below the company's own Q2 guidance. Source: Spotify Q2 2026 shareholder letter (investors.spotify.com); resolves ~29 Jul 2026.
We lock a binary: Spotify reports Q2 2026 monthly active users at or above 770 million AND Premium subscribers at or above 296 million, per the company's shareholder letter. Confidence 93%.
Spotify's user base has grown every quarter and Q1 2026 beat its own MAU guidance (761M vs 759M guided); the company guided Q2 to 778M MAU and 299M subscribers. Our floors of 770M and 296M sit below those guides, so the call survives a modest shortfall. Confidence 93%, not higher, because MAU/subscriber adds can soften on seasonality or a price increase. Resolves against the reported Q2 figures.
RAOSCAFF locks P-95 on 2026-06-24, before the Q2 report. Scored on whether Q2 2026 MAU ≥770M and Premium subscribers ≥296M.
Two-part guidance-floor lock — both the MAU and subscriber floors must hold for a YES.