92% probability Intel's Q2 2026 revenue lands at or above $13.8bn — the low end of its own $13.8–14.8bn guidance, with CCG and DCAI both guided up sequentially. A guidance-floor call on the turnaround. Resolves 23 Jul 2026.
At its Q1 2026 results Intel guided Q2 2026 revenue to $13.8–14.8bn (midpoint ~$14.3bn), with both CCG and DCAI expected to grow sequentially (DCAI up double-digits) and foundry losses narrowing as 18A yields run ahead of plan. Our $13.8bn floor is the low end of that guide. Source: Intel Q2 2026 results release, 23 Jul 2026 (intc.com).
We lock a binary: Intel's Q2 2026 revenue lands at or above $13.8 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.
Intel guided Q2 2026 to $13.8–14.8bn with both client and data-center segments pointing up sequentially; our bar sits at the very bottom of that range. Confidence 92%, not higher, because a soft PC/server quarter or a guidance shortfall could nick the floor. Resolves against Intel's reported Q2 revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-96 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against Intel's reported Q2 2026 revenue versus a $13.8bn floor.
Floor = the low end of the company's own $13.8–14.8bn guide — a cushioned guidance-floor call, not a forecast of the exact number.