88% probability JPMorgan's Q2 2026 net income lands at or above $12bn — below its recent $13–15bn quarterly run-rate — with FY2026 NII guidance held near $103bn. A structural-floor call on the biggest US bank. Resolves 14 Jul 2026.
JPMorgan has earned roughly $13–15bn in net income per quarter through 2025–26 and guides full-year 2026 net interest income to ~$103bn (trimmed from ~$104.5bn). Our $12bn floor sits below that earnings run-rate. Source: JPMorgan Chase Q2 2026 results, 14 Jul 2026 (jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations).
We lock a binary: JPMorgan Chase reports Q2 2026 net income at or above $12 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 88%.
JPMorgan's diversified franchise has printed ~$13–15bn of net income per quarter; our $12bn floor sits below that run-rate. Confidence 88%, not higher, because a large credit-reserve build (a recession-risk provision) or a one-off legal/markets charge can compress a single quarter's net income. Resolves against JPMorgan's reported Q2 net income.
RAOSCAFF locks P-97 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against JPMorgan Chase's reported Q2 2026 net income versus a $12bn floor.
Structural earnings floor below the ~$13–15bn run-rate — a reserve build is the main miss path.