93% probability Toyota is the world's best-selling automaker by global vehicle sales for calendar 2026 — a streak running since 2020, with ~10.8m units vs Volkswagen's ~9m. A structural near-certainty. Resolves ~Jan 2027 via the global sales tallies.
Toyota has been the world's best-selling automaker every year since 2020, selling on the order of 10.8m vehicles globally versus Volkswagen Group's ~9m; its FY2026 (to Mar 2026) consolidated sales estimate alone was 9.75m and group/retail volumes run higher. Source: Toyota + Volkswagen global full-year 2026 sales tallies (global.toyota / OICA), ~Jan 2027.
We lock a binary: the Toyota Group is the world's best-selling automaker (by global vehicle sales) for calendar year 2026, per the published full-year sales tallies. Confidence 93%.
Toyota has topped global vehicle sales every year since 2020, typically by well over a million units against Volkswagen; the gap dwarfs realistic year-to-year swings. Confidence 93%, shy of certainty, only for the tail of a severe supply shock or a methodology dispute over how group sales are tallied. Resolves against the published 2026 full-year sales figures.
RAOSCAFF locks P-99 on 2026-06-25. Scored on whether Toyota Group leads global vehicle sales for calendar 2026.
Scored on global vehicle sales (group basis, the standard 'best-selling automaker' metric) for the calendar year.