The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 1 of 345 ·Miss ×Next 90 days ×June 2026 ×Clear all
June 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-02 | US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.United States | 17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Miss |