Library & Vote

Each headline measures a different thing. We show you what.

RAOSCAFF is research-grade decision intelligence across markets, sectors, jurisdictions, and policy regimes. We read published industry data against what each publisher actually measured, and trace every figure to its source. Predict-not-recommend voice. Defamation-disciplined. The library is bounded by the world’s disclosures — never by ours.

RAOSCAFF sets the editorial agenda; the vote is a reader signal we weigh, not a poll that decides — and the count stays quiet by design.

231 artefacts · 1 Flagship · 161 Mirror · 35 Weekly · 15 Australia · 10 Student Abroad · 2 Canada Agri-Food · Quiet count

Prediction Series · Track Record →

Capital & Households

Sectors & Build

Policy & Global

— Pinned

Featured

#P02Resolution
P-02 Resolution — We Graded Our Own US-Iran Forecast, In Public
On 2026-05-26, before the agreed text was public, RAOSCAFF locked prediction P-02 on the US-Iran 14-point Memorandum of Understanding. It was signed on 2026-06-17 — a ~88% clause-for-clause match to the document. The primary, locked probability bet (100% on signed-as-drafted, by June 16) missed — signed June 17 as a modified text, a zero-probability bin (Branch 2); the document match is ~88% (9 full + 3 partial of 12 rows, partials at half = 10.5/12); the HEU-removal clause, ranked #1-most-likely-to-slip (reworded or deferred), was validated (signed as down-blended on-site under IAEA, disposition deferred). We report the primary miss and the secondary match, because a forecast you can't check isn't intelligence.
~88%document/clause match · P-02 May-26 read vs the signed MoU · NOT the locked outcome-class probability (reported as a miss)
2026-06-19·9 min

— Flagship Reports

01 published

#KCurveAtlas
The Two Indias — A K-Curve Atlas (India 2026)
Macro convergence and branded-market bifurcation are simultaneously true. Cross-sector synthesis of FMCG, autos, capital markets, residential, telecom, gold + insurance, wealth concentration, and household pension.
5hero panels · 15 substrate briefs
2026-05-20·22 min

— Mirror Briefs

161 published

— The Student-Abroad Series

10 published

— The Canada Agri-Food Decode Series

02 published

— Weekly Intelligence

35 published

— The Australian Property Decode

15 published

— The Global Decode

06 published

— Vote

Closes 22 May 2026

What should RAOSCAFF research next?

Five fresh investigation topics — none overlapping the artefacts already published in the Intelligence Library. RAOSCAFF sets the editorial agenda; your vote is a signal we read, not a poll that decides. Briefs publish when the investigation is ready. Quiet count — no live numbers by design.

Each headline measures a different thing. We show you what.

P-02 Resolution — We Graded Our Own US-Iran Forecast, In Public

The Two Indias — A K-Curve Atlas (India 2026)

P-135 — ServiceNow Q2 2026 Subscription Revenue ≥$3.80bn: Locked at 92%

P-134 — BlackRock Q2 2026 AUM ≥$13.0 Trillion: Locked at 92%

P-133 — Verizon Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS ≥$1.15: Locked at 90%

P-132 — Caterpillar Q2 2026 Revenue ≥$17.0bn: Locked at 90%

P-131 — Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPS ≥$0.75: Locked at 85%

P-130 — US July 2026 Unemployment Rate ≤5.0%: Locked at 90%

P-129 — Pfizer Holds Its FY2026 Adjusted-EPS Guidance Floor at Q2: Locked at 88%

P-128 — Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 Net Revenue ≥$16.0bn: Locked at 90%

P-127 — Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥$6.00: Locked at 90%

P-126 — Home Depot Q2 FY2026 Comparable Sales ≥0%: Locked at 82%

P-125 — Ford Posts Positive Adjusted EBIT in Q2 2026: Locked at 85%

P-124 — US Q2 2026 GDP Advance Estimate ≥1.0%: Locked at 88%

P-123 — McDonald's Q2 2026 Global Comparable Sales Positive: Locked at 82%

P-122 — Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 Revenue ≥$1.21bn: Locked at 92%

P-121 — ExxonMobil Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS ≥$2.50: Locked at 88%

P-120 — Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 Net Revenue ≥$14.0bn: Locked at 92%

P-119 — The Bank of England Does Not Cut at Its September 2026 Meeting: Locked at 93%

P-118 — PepsiCo Q2 2026 Organic Revenue Growth ≥1%: Locked at 87%

P-117 — Airbnb Q2 2026 Revenue ≥$3.45bn: Locked at 91%

P-116 — J&J Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS ≥$2.70: Locked at 90%

P-115 — Airbus Out-Delivers Boeing in 2026: Locked at 94%

P-114 — Mastercard Q2 2026 Net Revenue Grows ≥8% YoY: Locked at 88%

P-113 — Uber Q2 2026 Gross Bookings ≥$55bn: Locked at 93%

P-112 — The ECB Does Not Cut at Its September 2026 Meeting: Locked at 94%

P-111 — The FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Match Begins by Dec 31: Locked at 80%

P-110 — Dune: Part Three Opens At or Above $60M Domestic: Locked at 78%

P-109 — The LA Rams Make the 2026 NFL Playoffs: Locked at 82%

P-108 — US 10-Year Yield Closes Sept 2026 Within 3.75%–5.25%: Locked at 90%

P-107 — Boeing H1 2026 Commercial Deliveries ≥285: Locked at 91%

P-106 — SK Hynix Q2 2026 Operating Profit ≥₩32tn: Locked at 91%

P-105 — LME Copper Closes End-October 2026 At or Above $9,000/t: Locked at 92%

P-104 — Visa Fiscal Q3 2026 Net Revenue ≥$11.2bn: Locked at 90%

P-103 — The Fed Holds Rates at Its September 2026 Meeting: Locked at 82%

P-102 — India's Nifty 50 Closes 2026 At or Above 22,000: Locked at 80%

P-101 — Coca-Cola Q2 2026 Organic Revenue Growth ≥3%: Locked at 90%

P-100 — The LA Dodgers Make the 2026 MLB Playoffs: Locked at 93%

P-99 — Toyota Is the World's Best-Selling Automaker for 2026: Locked at 93%

P-98 — LVMH H1 2026 Organic Growth ≥0%: Locked at 74%

P-97 — JPMorgan Q2 2026 Net Income ≥$12bn: Locked at 88%

P-96 — Intel Q2 2026 Revenue ≥$13.8bn: Locked at 92%

P-95 — Spotify Q2 2026 MAUs ≥770M and Premium Subs ≥296M: Locked at 93%

P-94 — Disney's Streaming Stays Operating-Profitable in Fiscal Q3 2026: Locked at 88%

P-93 — Infosys Holds Its FY27 Guidance Floor at Q1: Locked at 85%

P-92 — Novo Nordisk's Wegovy Sales Grow Sequentially in Q2 2026: Locked at 80%

P-91 — The Bank of Japan Holds at 1.0% in July 2026: Locked at 85%

P-90 — ASML Q2 2026 Net Sales ≥€8.2bn: Locked at 93%

P-89 — China's Official Q3 2026 GDP Prints ≥4.5% YoY: Locked at 92%

P-88 — Apple Holds Its September 2026 Event and Ships the iPhone 18 Pro: Locked at 95%

P-87 — 2026 Ranks Among the Three Warmest Years on Record: Locked at 93%

P-86 — 2026 Henry Hub Annual Average ≤$4.25/MMBtu: Locked at 90%

P-85 — 2026 Brent Annual Average ≥$85/bbl: Locked at 78%

P-84 — NASA Europa Clipper Completes Its December 2026 Earth Flyby: Locked at 96%

P-83 — Gold Closes 2026 At or Above $3,500/oz: Locked at 95%

P-82 — Taylor Swift 'The Fate of Ophelia' Lands a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year Nomination: Locked at 92%

P-81 — 2026 Atlantic Season Ends With ≤14 Named Storms: Locked at 72%

P-80 — OPEC+ Announces an August 2026 Output Increase: Locked at 82%

P-79 — UnitedHealth Group FY2026 Adjusted EPS ≥$18.25: Locked at 82%

P-78 — Eli Lilly Mounjaro + Zepbound Worldwide Revenue Exceeds $14.0B in Q3 2026: Locked at 88%

P-77 — Costco August 2026 Net Sales Grow ≥5% YoY: Locked at 93%

P-76 — Walmart Q2 FY2027 Net Sales Grow ≥3.5% YoY: Locked at 92%

P-75 — SpaceX Conducts ≥1 Integrated Starship Test Flight in H2 2026: Locked at 97%

P-74 — SpaceX Falcon-Family Orbital Launches in 2026 Reach ≥120: Locked at 95%

P-73 — BitMine Immersion's Disclosed ETH Holdings Reach ≥6,000,000 ETH by Oct 31 2026: Locked at 90%

P-72 — Adobe FQ3 2026 Revenue ≥$6.67B Guidance Floor: Locked at 93%

P-71 — Salesforce Q2 FY2027 Revenue ≥$11.27B Guidance Floor: Locked at 93%

P-70 — Circle USDC Circulation at Q2 2026 Quarter-End ≥$70B: Locked at 93%

P-69 — Coinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services Revenue ≥$565M: Locked at 82%

P-68 — Reliance Q1 FY27 Consolidated Revenue Grows ≥5% YoY: Locked at 88%

P-67 — Qualcomm FQ3 2026 Revenue ≥$9.2B Guidance Floor: Locked at 88%

P-66 — Australia Women Reach ICC Women's T20 World Cup 2026 Final: Locked at 72%

P-65 — Micron FQ3 2026 Revenue ≥$32.75B Guidance Floor: Locked at 94%

P-64 — DraftKings FY2026 Revenue Inside $6.5B–$6.9B Guidance Band: Locked at 85%

P-63 — No Private Fusion Device Achieves Independently-Verified Scientific Q>1 in 2026: Locked at 96%

P-62 — USDT Remains #1 Stablecoin by Market Cap on DefiLlama at Dec 31 2026: Locked at 98%

P-61 — Total Stablecoin Market Cap Exceeds $340B at Dec 31 2026: Locked at 82%

P-60 — 2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize Goes Unclaimed on ARC-AGI-2: Locked at 82%

P-59 — Brazil 2026 Presidential First Round Triggers Oct 25 Runoff: Locked at 88%