The Prediction Series
Every lock, and every score.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known, and scored against that exact criterion afterwards — never against a directional impression. Misses are published in full.
345 locks · 80 resolved · 93.75% hit rate · the running scoreboard →
— All
1–60 of 345
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-167 | Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45. | 1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-22 | India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandMISS — locked the 6.3–7.3% band; MoSPI printed 7.8% YoY for Q1 FY27 on 31 Aug 2026 (real GDP Rs 81.36 lakh crore vs Rs 75.46 lakh crore). Above the band, so a miss under our own band rule even though the direction was right — the same failure as P-05. The band was set around the RBI's own 7% projection and the economy beat it: manufacturing 9.2%, real GVA +8.2%. We were not bearish, we were insufficiently bullish, and a band miss is a miss. We published it. | 31 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-21 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total. | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-56 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one. | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-71 | Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)HIT, but the tightest in the series — locked Q2 FY2027 revenue at or above the $11.27bn guidance floor; Salesforce reported $11.35bn, up 11%, clearing by $80m or ~0.7%. Consensus was $11.32bn, so the floor held with very little room. Full-year guidance was raised to $46.1–$46.4bn. Reported 26 Aug 2026. | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-147 | CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 revenueCrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 total revenue ≥$1.40bn (below guide low end) — ~0.94HIT — locked FQ2 FY2027 TOTAL revenue at or above $1.40bn; CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.47bn, up 26%, with ARR up 25% to $5.84bn, reported 26 Aug 2026. NOTE the metric trap this brief anticipated: SUBSCRIPTION revenue came in at exactly $1.40bn. The criterion explicitly named total revenue and excluded subscription revenue, so the call clears at $1.47bn; scoring the sibling would have landed precisely on the threshold. | 26 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-76 | Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)HIT — locked total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY; Q2 FY2027 total revenue rose 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), net sales +5% cc, reported 20 Aug 2026, full-year guidance raised. Honest note: Walmart MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales in the same quarter — we scored our locked metric (total net sales), not the quarter's overall reception. | 20 Aug 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-139 | Alibaba Cloud June quarterAlibaba Cloud Intelligence external revenue grows ≥ 30% YoY — ~0.85HIT — locked Cloud external revenue growth ≥30% YoY; external revenue growth accelerated to 45% in the June 2026 quarter (segment revenue RMB48,437m / US$7,139m), reported 20 Aug 2026. DISCLOSURE: Alibaba renamed the segment from Cloud Intelligence Group to AI Cloud and Compute Services and folded in the T-Head chip arm, so the 45% is the successor segment's external growth. The call clears the 30% floor either way — pre-rename external growth was already 40% in the March quarter. | 20 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-126 | Home Depot FQ2 2026 compsHome Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales ≥ 0% — ~0.82HIT — locked comparable sales ≥0%; FQ2 2026 comparable sales printed +1.7% (US comps +1.3%) on sales of $47.9bn, reported 18 Aug 2026, guidance reaffirmed. Scored on TOTAL comparable sales, the locked metric — not the US-only figure and not the +5.7% total sales growth. | 18 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-94 | Disney streaming FQ3 2026Disney DTC/streaming operating income positive in fiscal Q3 2026 — ~0.88HIT - Disney fiscal-Q3 streaming operating income +$712M (positive, more than doubled YoY). | 12 Aug 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-70 | Circle USDC circulationCircle USDC in circulation at Q2'26 quarter-end ≥ $70BHIT - Circle USDC in circulation $73.3B at Q2 quarter-end (Jun 30), >=$70B. | 11 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-36 | Palantir Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $1.797B (guide floor)HIT - Palantir Q2 revenue $1.94bn, >=$1.797bn. | 10 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-69 | Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M). | 7 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-130 | US July 2026 unemployment rateUS July 2026 unemployment rate ≤ 5.0% — ~0.90HIT - US July unemployment 4.1% (<=5.0%), below the 4.3% estimate. | 7 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-38 | Nintendo Switch 2 unitsSwitch 2 cumulative units shipped ≥ 22.0M at Q1 FY27 — ~0.72HIT - Switch 2 lifetime units 23.68M at Q1 FY27 (Jun 30), >=22.0M. | 6 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-55 | Mario Kart World unitsMK World lifetime units > 15M at Nintendo Q1 FY27HIT - Mario Kart World lifetime units 15.39M at Q1 FY27, >15M. | 6 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-123 | McDonald's Q2 2026 global compsMcDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales > 0% — ~0.82HIT - McDonald's Q2 global comparable sales +1.3% (>0%), positive across all segments. | 6 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-04 | RBI August MPCHold 5.25% (0.91) · Neutral (0.95) · 6-0 (0.72)HIT (all three partitions) - RBI held repo 5.25%, retained the Neutral stance, unanimous 6-0. | 5 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-67 | Qualcomm FQ3 2026 revenueQualcomm FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $9.2B (guide floor)HIT - Qualcomm fiscal-Q3 revenue $9.95bn, >=$9.2bn. | 5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-68 | Reliance Q1 FY27 revenueReliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grows ≥ 5% YoYHIT - Reliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue +24.5% YoY, >=5%. | 5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-92 | Novo Nordisk Wegovy Q2 2026Novo Wegovy franchise sales grow Q2 > Q1 2026 — ~0.80HIT - Wegovy franchise grew Q2>Q1: Wegovy pill DKK 2,256M -> 3,141M (+885M QoQ); Novo beat on Wegovy and raised FY guidance, obesity-care sales up. Pill-driven; the injectable faced YoY price pressure. | 5 Aug 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-113 | Uber Q2 2026 gross bookingsUber Q2 2026 gross bookings ≥ $55bn — ~0.93HIT - Uber Q2 gross bookings $58.0bn, >=$55bn. | 5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-117 | Airbnb Q2 2026 revenueAirbnb Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $3.45bn — ~0.91HIT - Airbnb Q2 revenue $3.6bn, >=$3.45bn. | 5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-122 | Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 revenueArm FQ1 2027 revenue ≥ $1.21bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Arm fiscal-Q1 FY27 revenue $1.289bn, >=$1.21bn. | 5 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-47 | AMD Q2 2026 revenueAMD Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $10.9B (guide floor)HIT - AMD Q2 revenue $11.5bn, >=$10.9bn (record). | 4 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-129 | Pfizer FY2026 guidance floorPfizer keeps FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $2.80 at Q2 — ~0.88HIT - Pfizer reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance $2.80-3.00 at Q2; floor >=$2.80 kept. | 4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-132 | Caterpillar Q2 2026 revenueCaterpillar Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $17.0bn (vs ~$19bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Caterpillar Q2 revenue $20.5bn, >=$17.0bn (first >$20bn quarter). | 4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-10 | Spider-Man: Brand New DayOpens #1, ≥ $140M 3-day domesticHIT - Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened #1 at $360M domestic, >=$140M (biggest opening ever). | 2 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-37 | EU AI Act Aug 2 appliesGPAI enforcement + Art 50(1) applicable on schedule (50(2) watermarking excluded)HIT - the EU AI Act's GPAI enforcement powers took effect on schedule on Aug 2, 2026 (Art 50(2) watermarking was excluded from the lock). | 2 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-91 | Bank of Japan July 2026 decisionBoJ holds policy rate at 1.0% at July 2026 meeting — ~0.85HIT - the BoJ held the policy rate at 1.0% (8-1) at the July meeting. | 31 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-121 | ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPSExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.50 (vs ~$3.50 consensus) — ~0.88HIT - ExxonMobil Q2 adjusted EPS $3.52, >=$2.50. | 31 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-41 | Azure Q4 FY26 cloud growthAzure FQ4-FY26 growth ≥ 39% cc (guide floor) — ~0.78HIT - Azure fiscal-Q4 grew 43% (43% cc), >=39%. | 30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-42 | AWS Q2 2026 growthAWS Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 25% YoYHIT - AWS Q2 revenue grew ~37% YoY, >=25%. | 30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-46 | Apple Q3 FY26 revenueApple June-quarter revenue grows ≥ 14% YoY (guide floor)HIT - Apple fiscal-Q3 (June quarter) revenue $109.4bn, +16% YoY, >=+14%. | 30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-114 | Mastercard Q2 2026 net revenueMastercard Q2 2026 net revenue grows ≥8% YoY cc — ~0.88HIT - Mastercard Q2 net revenue +12% currency-neutral, >=8%. | 30 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-124 | US Q2 2026 GDP advance estimateUS Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate ≥ 1.0% annualized (GDPNow ~3.0%) — ~0.88HIT - US Q2 GDP advance +1.5% annualized, >=1.0% (below the 2.1% forecast but above the locked floor). | 30 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-07 | Fed July FOMCNo cut (target held ≥ 3.50–3.75%)HIT - the Fed held the target range at 3.50-3.75% (9-3) on Jul 29; no cut. | 29 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-34 | Meta Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $58.0B (guide floor)HIT - Meta Q2 revenue $60.8bn, >=$58.0bn. | 29 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-95 | Spotify Q2 2026 usersSpotify Q2 2026 MAU ≥770M and Premium subs ≥296M — ~0.93HIT - Spotify Q2 MAU 777M (>=770M) and Premium subs 300M (>=296M). | 29 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-106 | SK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profitSK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profit ≥ ₩32tn — ~0.91HIT - SK Hynix Q2 operating profit ~KRW 60.5tn, >=KRW 32tn. | 29 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-125 | Ford Q2 2026 adjusted EBITFord Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT positive (>$0) — ~0.85HIT - Ford Q2 adjusted EBIT +$2.5bn (positive). | 29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-135 | ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenueServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue ≥ $3.80bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - ServiceNow Q2 subscription revenue $3.877bn, >=$3.80bn. | 29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-98 | LVMH H1 2026 organic growthLVMH H1 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 0% — ~0.74HIT - LVMH H1 organic revenue growth +2%, >=0%. | 28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-104 | Visa fiscal Q3 2026 net revenueVisa FQ3 2026 GAAP net revenue ≥ $11.2bn — ~0.90HIT - Visa fiscal-Q3 net revenue $11.6bn, >=$11.2bn. | 28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-17 | Tour de France 2026 (GC simulation)Pogačar 56.9% win / 91.8% podium — 200k-race Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Pogacar (56.9% win) won the Tour, his 5th title, and podiumed. | 26 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-93 | Infosys Q1 FY27Infosys keeps FY27 CC guidance floor ≥1.5% + Q1 rev ≥$4.9bn — ~0.85HIT - Infosys kept its FY27 CC growth floor at 1.5% (narrowed to 1.5-3.0%) and Q1 revenue was $5.08bn (>=$4.9bn). | 23 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-96 | Intel Q2 2026 revenueIntel Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $13.8bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Intel Q2 revenue $16.1bn, >=$13.8bn. | 23 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-33 | Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 UnpackedFold 8 / Fold 8 Wide announced at summer-2026 UnpackedHIT - Samsung announced the Galaxy Z Fold 8 (+ Fold 8 Ultra, Flip 8) at Unpacked on Jul 22. | 22 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-45 | Alphabet Q2 Google CloudGoogle Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 50% YoYHIT - Google Cloud Q2 revenue grew 82% YoY, >=50%. | 22 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-101 | Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic growthCoca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 3% — ~0.90HIT - Coca-Cola Q2 organic revenue growth +6%, >=3%. | 22 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-127 | Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPSLockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $6.00 (vs ~$7.20 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Lockheed Martin Q2 EPS $7.94, >=$6.00. | 21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-133 | Verizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPSVerizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $1.15 (vs ~$1.27 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Verizon Q2 adjusted EPS $1.30, >=$1.15. | 21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-35 | HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 PATQ1 FY27 standalone PAT > ₹18,155cr one-off-inflated base — ~0.60HIT - HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 standalone PAT ~INR 19,060cr, >INR 18,155cr. | 20 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-06 | FIFA World Cup 2026Calibrated ensemble + partitions (not a named champion)HIT (all partitions) - Spain won: not a first-time nation (the 63.3% side), UEFA winner (65.8%), not CONMEBOL, and both finalists (Spain + Argentina) were in the frozen Big-4 so >=1-Big-4-in-the-final (72.5%). Champion Spain was the ensemble's #2 name (14.2%). | 19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-15 | The Odyssey (Nolan)Opens #1, ≥ $80M 3-day domesticHIT - The Odyssey opened #1 at $124.5M domestic, >=$80M (Nolan's best opening). | 19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-19 | The Open 2026 (golf field simulation)Scheffler 15.8% win / 60% top-5 — 100k-tournament Monte-Carlo (field 43.3%)HIT (calibrated) - Scheffler finished T4, meeting the 60% top-5 and 86% top-10 calls; and the brief's explicit signal that the field (43.3%) was the likeliest winner held as longshot Ryan Fox won. The locked win prob was only 15.8%. | 19 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-08 | TSMC Q2 revenue≥ NT$1.23T (Apr+May already public = 827.7B)HIT - TSMC Q2 revenue NT$1,270.38bn (~NT$1.27T), >=NT$1.23T. | 16 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-12 | Netflix Q2 revenue$12.30–12.85B (±2.2% of its $12.57B guide)HIT - Netflix Q2 revenue $12.56bn, inside the $12.30-12.85bn band. | 16 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-90 | ASML Q2 2026 net salesASML Q2 2026 total net sales ≥€8.2bn — ~0.93HIT - ASML Q2 net sales EUR 9.3bn, >=EUR 8.2bn. | 16 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-116 | J&J Q2 2026 adjusted EPSJohnson & Johnson Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.70 — ~0.90HIT - Johnson & Johnson Q2 adjusted EPS $2.90, >=$2.70. | 15 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |