Prediction Series · Track Record
Every forecast, locked and scored.
The RAOSCAFF Prediction Series is a run of timestamped, falsifiable public forecasts. Each is locked in writing before the event — the commit timestamp is the cryptographic lock — and scored honestly against its literal criterion when it resolves.
360
Forecasts locked
204
Awaiting event
0
Scoring
156
Resolved + scored
Locked confident. Resolved honest.We score every forecast against the exact criterion we locked — not a directional vibe — and we publish the result even when we miss. P-02 is on this board as a recorded miss for exactly that reason: a forecast you can’t check isn’t intelligence.
- P-01US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).Locked 2026-05-26
Resolved Jun 10, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-02US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.Locked 2026-05-26
Resolved Jun 17, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-65Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom).Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Jun 24, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-09BYD Q2 NEV sales> 950k units (Apr+May already public = 704.6k)HIT - BYD Q2 NEV sales 1.108M units, >950k.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved ~Jul 1, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-05Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved ~Jul 2, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-66Australia Women — T20 WC finalAustralia Women reach the ICC Women's T20 WC 2026 final — ~0.72HIT - Australia Women reached (and won) the ICC Women's T20 WC final, beating England by 7 wickets.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jun 30 / Jul 2, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-13F1 — Antonelli's title leadStill standings leader after the British GPHIT - Antonelli remained championship leader after the British GP (Leclerc won; Antonelli P16/no points after a wheel-shield failure); lead trimmed to 25 pts over Russell. Criterion = still leader, TRUE.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-80OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82HIT - OPEC+ announced an August output increase of 188,000 bpd (>0).Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved ~Jul 6, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-112026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 8, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-43TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenueQ1 FY27 consolidated USD revenue in $7.55–7.85BHIT - TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenue ~$7.58bn, inside $7.55-7.85bn.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 2026Resolved · Hit - P-118PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 9, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-131Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 10, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-14Wimbledon men's singlesChampion is NOT Alcaraz (withdrew, not in draw)HIT - the champion was NOT Alcaraz: Jannik Sinner beat Alexander Zverev to retain the title.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 12, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-18Wimbledon 2026 men's (draw simulation)Sinner ~51% title (sim 41% / market 58%) — 50k-draw Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Sinner (locked ~51%) won the title, defending his crown.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Jul 12, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-03India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)MISS - locked 4.6% (above the ~4.5% consensus); India June CPI printed 4.38%, below both.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved ~Jul 13, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-97JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 14, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-107Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018).Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Jul 14, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-120Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 14, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-116J&J Q2 2026 adjusted EPSJohnson & Johnson Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.70 — ~0.90HIT - Johnson & Johnson Q2 adjusted EPS $2.90, >=$2.70.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 15, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-128Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenueMorgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $16.0bn (vs ~$19.1bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Morgan Stanley Q2 net revenue $21.3bn, >=$16.0bn.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 15, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-134BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Jul 15, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-08TSMC Q2 revenue≥ NT$1.23T (Apr+May already public = 827.7B)HIT - TSMC Q2 revenue NT$1,270.38bn (~NT$1.27T), >=NT$1.23T.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-12Netflix Q2 revenue$12.30–12.85B (±2.2% of its $12.57B guide)HIT - Netflix Q2 revenue $12.56bn, inside the $12.30-12.85bn band.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved ~Jul 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-90ASML Q2 2026 net salesASML Q2 2026 total net sales ≥€8.2bn — ~0.93HIT - ASML Q2 net sales EUR 9.3bn, >=EUR 8.2bn.Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved ~Jul 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-06FIFA World Cup 2026Calibrated ensemble + partitions (not a named champion)HIT (all partitions) - Spain won: not a first-time nation (the 63.3% side), UEFA winner (65.8%), not CONMEBOL, and both finalists (Spain + Argentina) were in the frozen Big-4 so >=1-Big-4-in-the-final (72.5%). Champion Spain was the ensemble's #2 name (14.2%).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 19, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-15The Odyssey (Nolan)Opens #1, ≥ $80M 3-day domesticHIT - The Odyssey opened #1 at $124.5M domestic, >=$80M (Nolan's best opening).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 19, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-19The Open 2026 (golf field simulation)Scheffler 15.8% win / 60% top-5 — 100k-tournament Monte-Carlo (field 43.3%)HIT (calibrated) - Scheffler finished T4, meeting the 60% top-5 and 86% top-10 calls; and the brief's explicit signal that the field (43.3%) was the likeliest winner held as longshot Ryan Fox won. The locked win prob was only 15.8%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Jul 19, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-35HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 PATQ1 FY27 standalone PAT > ₹18,155cr one-off-inflated base — ~0.60HIT - HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 standalone PAT ~INR 19,060cr, >INR 18,155cr.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-127Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPSLockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $6.00 (vs ~$7.20 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Lockheed Martin Q2 EPS $7.94, >=$6.00.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 21, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-133Verizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPSVerizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $1.15 (vs ~$1.27 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Verizon Q2 adjusted EPS $1.30, >=$1.15.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 21, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-33Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 UnpackedFold 8 / Fold 8 Wide announced at summer-2026 UnpackedHIT - Samsung announced the Galaxy Z Fold 8 (+ Fold 8 Ultra, Flip 8) at Unpacked on Jul 22.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 2026Resolved · Hit - P-45Alphabet Q2 Google CloudGoogle Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 50% YoYHIT - Google Cloud Q2 revenue grew 82% YoY, >=50%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-101Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic growthCoca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 3% — ~0.90HIT - Coca-Cola Q2 organic revenue growth +6%, >=3%.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Jul 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-93Infosys Q1 FY27Infosys keeps FY27 CC guidance floor ≥1.5% + Q1 rev ≥$4.9bn — ~0.85HIT - Infosys kept its FY27 CC growth floor at 1.5% (narrowed to 1.5-3.0%) and Q1 revenue was $5.08bn (>=$4.9bn).Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved Jul 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-96Intel Q2 2026 revenueIntel Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $13.8bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Intel Q2 revenue $16.1bn, >=$13.8bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-17Tour de France 2026 (GC simulation)Pogačar 56.9% win / 91.8% podium — 200k-race Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Pogacar (56.9% win) won the Tour, his 5th title, and podiumed.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Jul 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-98LVMH H1 2026 organic growthLVMH H1 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 0% — ~0.74HIT - LVMH H1 organic revenue growth +2%, >=0%.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-104Visa fiscal Q3 2026 net revenueVisa FQ3 2026 GAAP net revenue ≥ $11.2bn — ~0.90HIT - Visa fiscal-Q3 net revenue $11.6bn, >=$11.2bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-07Fed July FOMCNo cut (target held ≥ 3.50–3.75%)HIT - the Fed held the target range at 3.50-3.75% (9-3) on Jul 29; no cut.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-34Meta Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $58.0B (guide floor)HIT - Meta Q2 revenue $60.8bn, >=$58.0bn.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-95Spotify Q2 2026 usersSpotify Q2 2026 MAU ≥770M and Premium subs ≥296M — ~0.93HIT - Spotify Q2 MAU 777M (>=770M) and Premium subs 300M (>=296M).Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved ~Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-106SK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profitSK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profit ≥ ₩32tn — ~0.91HIT - SK Hynix Q2 operating profit ~KRW 60.5tn, >=KRW 32tn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-125Ford Q2 2026 adjusted EBITFord Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT positive (>$0) — ~0.85HIT - Ford Q2 adjusted EBIT +$2.5bn (positive).Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-135ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenueServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue ≥ $3.80bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - ServiceNow Q2 subscription revenue $3.877bn, >=$3.80bn.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-41Azure Q4 FY26 cloud growthAzure FQ4-FY26 growth ≥ 39% cc (guide floor) — ~0.78HIT - Azure fiscal-Q4 grew 43% (43% cc), >=39%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 2026Resolved · Hit - P-42AWS Q2 2026 growthAWS Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 25% YoYHIT - AWS Q2 revenue grew ~37% YoY, >=25%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 2026Resolved · Hit - P-46Apple Q3 FY26 revenueApple June-quarter revenue grows ≥ 14% YoY (guide floor)HIT - Apple fiscal-Q3 (June quarter) revenue $109.4bn, +16% YoY, >=+14%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 30, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-114Mastercard Q2 2026 net revenueMastercard Q2 2026 net revenue grows ≥8% YoY cc — ~0.88HIT - Mastercard Q2 net revenue +12% currency-neutral, >=8%.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Jul 30, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-124US Q2 2026 GDP advance estimateUS Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate ≥ 1.0% annualized (GDPNow ~3.0%) — ~0.88HIT - US Q2 GDP advance +1.5% annualized, >=1.0% (below the 2.1% forecast but above the locked floor).Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Jul 30, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-91Bank of Japan July 2026 decisionBoJ holds policy rate at 1.0% at July 2026 meeting — ~0.85HIT - the BoJ held the policy rate at 1.0% (8-1) at the July meeting.Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved ~Jul 31, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-121ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPSExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.50 (vs ~$3.50 consensus) — ~0.88HIT - ExxonMobil Q2 adjusted EPS $3.52, >=$2.50.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Jul 31, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-10Spider-Man: Brand New DayOpens #1, ≥ $140M 3-day domesticHIT - Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened #1 at $360M domestic, >=$140M (biggest opening ever).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Aug 2, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-37EU AI Act Aug 2 appliesGPAI enforcement + Art 50(1) applicable on schedule (50(2) watermarking excluded)HIT - the EU AI Act's GPAI enforcement powers took effect on schedule on Aug 2, 2026 (Art 50(2) watermarking was excluded from the lock).Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Aug 2, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-47AMD Q2 2026 revenueAMD Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $10.9B (guide floor)HIT - AMD Q2 revenue $11.5bn, >=$10.9bn (record).Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 4, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-129Pfizer FY2026 guidance floorPfizer keeps FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $2.80 at Q2 — ~0.88HIT - Pfizer reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance $2.80-3.00 at Q2; floor >=$2.80 kept.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 4, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-132Caterpillar Q2 2026 revenueCaterpillar Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $17.0bn (vs ~$19bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Caterpillar Q2 revenue $20.5bn, >=$17.0bn (first >$20bn quarter).Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Aug 4, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-04RBI August MPCHold 5.25% (0.91) · Neutral (0.95) · 6-0 (0.72)HIT (all three partitions) - RBI held repo 5.25%, retained the Neutral stance, unanimous 6-0.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-67Qualcomm FQ3 2026 revenueQualcomm FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $9.2B (guide floor)HIT - Qualcomm fiscal-Q3 revenue $9.95bn, >=$9.2bn.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-68Reliance Q1 FY27 revenueReliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grows ≥ 5% YoYHIT - Reliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue +24.5% YoY, >=5%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 2026Resolved · Hit - P-92Novo Nordisk Wegovy Q2 2026Novo Wegovy franchise sales grow Q2 > Q1 2026 — ~0.80HIT - Wegovy franchise grew Q2>Q1: Wegovy pill DKK 2,256M -> 3,141M (+885M QoQ); Novo beat on Wegovy and raised FY guidance, obesity-care sales up. Pill-driven; the injectable faced YoY price pressure.Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-113Uber Q2 2026 gross bookingsUber Q2 2026 gross bookings ≥ $55bn — ~0.93HIT - Uber Q2 gross bookings $58.0bn, >=$55bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-117Airbnb Q2 2026 revenueAirbnb Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $3.45bn — ~0.91HIT - Airbnb Q2 revenue $3.6bn, >=$3.45bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-122Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 revenueArm FQ1 2027 revenue ≥ $1.21bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Arm fiscal-Q1 FY27 revenue $1.289bn, >=$1.21bn.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-38Nintendo Switch 2 unitsSwitch 2 cumulative units shipped ≥ 22.0M at Q1 FY27 — ~0.72HIT - Switch 2 lifetime units 23.68M at Q1 FY27 (Jun 30), >=22.0M.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Aug 6, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-55Mario Kart World unitsMK World lifetime units > 15M at Nintendo Q1 FY27HIT - Mario Kart World lifetime units 15.39M at Q1 FY27, >15M.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~early Aug 2026Resolved · Hit - P-123McDonald's Q2 2026 global compsMcDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales > 0% — ~0.82HIT - McDonald's Q2 global comparable sales +1.3% (>0%), positive across all segments.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 6, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-69Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M).Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~early Aug 2026Resolved · Miss - P-130US July 2026 unemployment rateUS July 2026 unemployment rate ≤ 5.0% — ~0.90HIT - US July unemployment 4.1% (<=5.0%), below the 4.3% estimate.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 7, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-36Palantir Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $1.797B (guide floor)HIT - Palantir Q2 revenue $1.94bn, >=$1.797bn.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 10, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-70Circle USDC circulationCircle USDC in circulation at Q2'26 quarter-end ≥ $70BHIT - Circle USDC in circulation $73.3B at Q2 quarter-end (Jun 30), >=$70B.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 11, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-94Disney streaming FQ3 2026Disney DTC/streaming operating income positive in fiscal Q3 2026 — ~0.88HIT - Disney fiscal-Q3 streaming operating income +$712M (positive, more than doubled YoY).Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved Aug 12, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-126Home Depot FQ2 2026 compsHome Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales ≥ 0% — ~0.82HIT — locked comparable sales ≥0%; FQ2 2026 comparable sales printed +1.7% (US comps +1.3%) on sales of $47.9bn, reported 18 Aug 2026, guidance reaffirmed. Scored on TOTAL comparable sales, the locked metric — not the US-only figure and not the +5.7% total sales growth.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 18, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-76Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)HIT — locked total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY; Q2 FY2027 total revenue rose 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), net sales +5% cc, reported 20 Aug 2026, full-year guidance raised. Honest note: Walmart MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales in the same quarter — we scored our locked metric (total net sales), not the quarter's overall reception.Locked 2026-06-23
Resolved ~Aug 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-139Alibaba Cloud June quarterAlibaba Cloud Intelligence external revenue grows ≥ 30% YoY — ~0.85HIT — locked Cloud external revenue growth ≥30% YoY; external revenue growth accelerated to 45% in the June 2026 quarter (segment revenue RMB48,437m / US$7,139m), reported 20 Aug 2026. DISCLOSURE: Alibaba renamed the segment from Cloud Intelligence Group to AI Cloud and Compute Services and folded in the T-Head chip arm, so the 45% is the successor segment's external growth. The call clears the 30% floor either way — pre-rename external growth was already 40% in the March quarter.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Aug 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-21Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-56Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-71Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)HIT, but the tightest in the series — locked Q2 FY2027 revenue at or above the $11.27bn guidance floor; Salesforce reported $11.35bn, up 11%, clearing by $80m or ~0.7%. Consensus was $11.32bn, so the floor held with very little room. Full-year guidance was raised to $46.1–$46.4bn. Reported 26 Aug 2026.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-147CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 revenueCrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 total revenue ≥$1.40bn (below guide low end) — ~0.94HIT — locked FQ2 FY2027 TOTAL revenue at or above $1.40bn; CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.47bn, up 26%, with ARR up 25% to $5.84bn, reported 26 Aug 2026. NOTE the metric trap this brief anticipated: SUBSCRIPTION revenue came in at exactly $1.40bn. The criterion explicitly named total revenue and excluded subscription revenue, so the call clears at $1.47bn; scoring the sibling would have landed precisely on the threshold.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Aug 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-22India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandMISS — locked the 6.3–7.3% band; MoSPI printed 7.8% YoY for Q1 FY27 on 31 Aug 2026 (real GDP Rs 81.36 lakh crore vs Rs 75.46 lakh crore). Above the band, so a miss under our own band rule even though the direction was right — the same failure as P-05. The band was set around the RBI's own 7% projection and the economy beat it: manufacturing 9.2%, real GVA +8.2%. We were not bearish, we were insufficiently bullish, and a band miss is a miss. We published it.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Aug 31, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-167Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 1, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-137Bank of Canada September 2026BoC holds the overnight rate at 2.25% (no change) — ~0.95HIT — locked a hold at 2.25%. On 2 Sep 2026 the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20%).Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 2, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-77Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYHIT — locked August 2026 net sales growth of at least +5% YoY. Costco reported $23.70bn for the four weeks to 30 Aug 2026, +9.9% from $21.56bn (released 2 Sep, after the close).Locked 2026-06-23
Resolved Sep 3, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-140Lululemon Q2 FY2026Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue ≥ $2.4bn (vs ~$2.55bn est) — ~0.85HIT — locked Q2 FY2026 net revenue of at least $2.4bn. Lululemon reported $2,415.6m on 3 Sep 2026, down 4% YoY: a margin of $15.6m, or 0.65%. Scored on the unrounded statement figure, because the headline '$2.4 billion' is rounded.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 4, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-48Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote shareHIT — locked AfD as the largest party by certified second-vote share. The Landeswahlleiter's final result gives AfD 43.8% of valid Zweitstimmen (575,971 of 1,315,282) against the CDU's 17.2%, a lead of 26.6 points.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Sep 6, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-179Inditex H1 FY2026 net salesInditex H1 FY2026 net sales ≥€17.0bn (€8.7bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93HIT — locked Inditex H1 FY2026 net sales of at least €17.0bn. Inditex reported €19,755m in reported euros, 16.2% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 9, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-112ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94HIT — locked that the ECB would not cut (deposit rate at or above 2.25%). On 10 Sep 2026 it RAISED its three key rates by 25bp, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% from 16 Sep. The lock said no cut, not a hold; a hike satisfies it, and we do not claim we foresaw the hike.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Sep 10, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-72Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue at or above the $6.67bn guidance floor. Adobe reported a record $6,760m on 10 Sep 2026, +13% YoY and 1.35% above the floor.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Sep 2026Resolved · Hit - P-136US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.82HIT — locked US August 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.7% YoY. The BLS printed CPI-U all items +3.4% (not seasonally adjusted) on 11 Sep 2026, 0.3 points inside the ceiling.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 11, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-23US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.70MISS — locked the 2026 US Open men's champion as Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz (~0.70). Alexander Zverev won, beating Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(2) 5-7 6-2 in the 13 Sep 2026 final; neither named player reached the final. Published as a miss.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Sep 13, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-50Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)HIT — locked Q1 FY2027 cloud revenue growth of at least 58% in US dollars, the guidance floor. Oracle reported total cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) of $11,607m on 10 Sep 2026, +62% in USD and +61% in constant currency.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Sep 2026Resolved · Hit - P-57Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue of at least $29.4bn, the guidance midpoint. Broadcom reported $29,591m on 2 Sep 2026, +86% YoY: a margin of $191m, or 0.65%. A midpoint threshold that was genuinely in contention.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Sep 2026Resolved · Hit - P-144US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.92HIT — locked a year-on-year rise in US August 2026 retail sales. The Census Bureau's advance estimate on 16 Sep 2026 put retail and food services sales at $773.9bn seasonally adjusted, up 6.0% from August 2025. Scored on the first-published advance figure, not the later revision.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-159Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked FQ3 2026 deliveries of at least 19,000 homes. Lennar delivered 20,840 (down 3% YoY), reported 16 Sep 2026, 9.7% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82MISS — locked a Fed hold at 3.50-3.75% (~0.82). On 16 Sep 2026 the FOMC voted 12-0 to RAISE the target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Published as a miss.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Sep 17, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82HIT — locked that General Mills would hold its FY2027 adjusted-EPS guidance floor of $3.00 at Q1. On 23 Sep 2026 it reaffirmed adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00-$3.20. The floor held exactly; the criterion is inclusive.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 17, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.93HIT — locked that the Bank of England would not cut (Bank Rate at or above 3.75%). On 17 Sep 2026 the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6-3, with all three dissenters voting to RAISE to 4%. Exactly at the floor, which is inclusive.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Sep 18, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteHIT — locked a new smart-glasses model or hardware capability from the Connect 2026 keynote. On 23 Sep 2026, the Connect keynote day, Meta announced Ray-Ban Meta Audio, Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 3) and new Meta Capri and Meta Nova styles (Meta Newsroom: "Today at Connect, we announced"). Placement on the keynote stage rests on live coverage of the keynote.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Sep 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-142Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.93HIT — locked an SNB hold at 0.00%. On 24 Sep 2026 the Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 25, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93HIT — locked a Dodgers 2026 postseason berth. They clinched on 14 Sep 2026 with a 4-1 win at Cincinnati.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Sep 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-138RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.95HIT — locked that the RBA would not cut (cash rate at or above 4.35%; hold-vs-hike not predicted). On 29 Sep 2026 the RBA RAISED the cash rate target by 25bp to 4.60%. A hike satisfies a no-cut lock; we did not call the direction.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeHIT — locked cumulative US spot-bitcoin-ETF net inflows of at least $45bn at the Q3 close. Summing Farside Investors' daily totals from 11 Jan 2024 to 30 Sep 2026 gives $57.56bn, which reconciles to Farside's printed all-time total once October flows are added. A flows lock, not a bitcoin-price call.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Sep 30, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95HIT — locked an Apple event in the week of 7 Sep with iPhone 18 Pro on sale before 30 Sep. Apple held its event on 9 Sep 2026 and iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale on 18 Sep.Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved Sep 30, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90MISS — locked the US 10-year Treasury yield closing September 2026 inside 3.75-5.25% (~0.90). FRED DGS10 printed 5.29% for 30 Sep 2026, four basis points above the top of the band; it had been 5.24% two sessions earlier. A band miss is a miss. Published as a miss.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Sep 30, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-141Accenture FQ4 FY26 revenueAccenture FQ4 FY26 revenue ≥ $17.75bn (low end of guide) — ~0.90HIT — locked FQ4 FY2026 revenue of at least $17.75bn, the low end of guidance. Accenture reported $18.68bn, +6% in US dollars and 5.2% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 1, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-145Euro area September 2026 inflationEuro-area Sept 2026 flash HICP ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.93MISS — locked euro-area September 2026 flash HICP at or below 3.5% (~0.93). Eurostat's flash on 2 Oct 2026 printed 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August and above the ~3.6% consensus, with energy the main driver; the 16 Oct final confirmed 3.8%. Published as a miss.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 1, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-220Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUMBajaj Finance Q2 FY27 consolidated AUM ≥₹5.6 lakh crore (vs ₹5,46,944cr at Q1) — ~0.94HIT — locked Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 consolidated AUM of at least ₹5,60,000 crore. The 3 Oct 2026 business update reported about ₹5,84,750 crore (the later results deck: ₹5,84,624 crore), above the floor on either figure.Locked 2026-08-27
Resolved Oct 3, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-59Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.88HIT — locked that the 4 Oct 2026 Brazilian presidential first round would go to a runoff (no candidate above 50%). The TSE count gives Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% and Lula 45.16% of valid votes.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Oct 4, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-162Mexico September 2026 inflationMexico Sept 2026 headline inflation ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.12% July) — ~0.93HIT — locked Mexico's September 2026 headline INPC inflation at or below 4.5%. INEGI printed 3.45% on 8 Oct 2026.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 8, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-189Tesco H1 2026/27 group salesTesco H1 2026/27 group sales ≥£32.5bn (£16.83bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93HIT — locked Tesco H1 2026/27 Group sales of at least £32.5bn. Tesco's LSE release reported Group sales of £33,776m (excluding VAT and fuel); revenue including fuel was £37,353m. Both clear the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 8, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-263Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross marginEricsson Q3 2026 NETWORKS segment ADJUSTED gross margin >= 47.0% (guidance 48-50%; NOT group gross margin, 2pts lower in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross margin of at least 47.0%. Ericsson reported 50.3% on 15 Oct 2026.Locked 2026-09-02
Resolved Oct 14, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-154Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 core FFO of at least $1.45 per diluted share. Prologis reported $1.60 on 15 Oct 2026 (Q3 2025: $1.49), 10.3% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 15, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-221ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPIICICI Lombard Q2 FY27 GDPI ≥₹7,500cr (premium not profit; GDPI not GPW) — ~0.93MISS — locked ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPI of at least ₹7,500 crore (~0.93). The company reported GDPI of ₹67.92bn (₹6,792 crore) on 14 Oct 2026, up only 3.0% against 7.0% for the industry as crop and mass health contracted. It also misses on the n basis (₹72.84bn). Published as a miss.Locked 2026-08-27
Resolved Oct 15, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-240TSMC Q3 2026 revenueTSMC Q3 2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 43.0bn (guidance USD 44.6-45.8bn; correlated pair with P-235, disclosed) — ~0.93HIT — locked TSMC Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of at least US$43.0bn, below its US$44.6-45.8bn guidance. TSMC reported NT$1,494.24bn, or US$46.72bn, on 15 Oct 2026, about 2% above the top of its own guidance. Correlated with P-235 (ASML), as disclosed at lock.Locked 2026-08-29
Resolved Oct 15, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-200SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 revenue of at least $8.5bn. SLB reported $9,449m on 23 Oct 2026, +5% sequentially and 11.2% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-21
Resolved Oct 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-325Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenueWipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenue >= US$2.50bn (guidance US$2.574-2.627bn, a ONE-QUARTER-AHEAD absolute dollar range; contrast P-319 HCLTech's full-year % guide) — ~0.93HIT — locked Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT services segment revenue of at least US$2.50bn. Wipro reported US$2,611.5m, inside its own US$2.574-2.627bn one-quarter-ahead guidance.Locked 2026-09-03
Resolved Oct 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-89China Q3 2026 GDPChina official Q3 2026 GDP ≥4.5% YoY — ~0.92HIT — locked China's official Q3 2026 GDP growth at or above 4.5% YoY. The NBS reported 4.5% on 19 Oct 2026 (Q2: 4.3%), exactly at the floor, which is inclusive. A threshold that was genuinely in contention.Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved Oct 18, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-155Canada September 2026 CPICanada Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY (vs 2.8% June) — ~0.92HIT — locked Canada's September 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.5% YoY. Statistics Canada printed 3.1% on 19 Oct 2026, driven by gasoline (+27.8%); excluding gasoline it was 2.2%.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-165Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of at least $2.00. Philip Morris reported $2.36 on 21 Oct 2026, +5.4% YoY.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-184L'Oreal Q3 2026 LfL growthL'Oreal Q3 2026 like-for-like sales growth ≥+2.0% (vs +6.8% in H1) — ~0.92HIT — locked L'Oréal Q3 2026 like-for-like sales growth of at least +2.0%. L'Oréal reported group like-for-like growth of +7.2% on 22 Oct 2026 (an adjusted +7.7% not used): a floor set far below what was delivered.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-207Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 headline core revenue growth of at least 1.0%, not the ex-respiratory measure. Danaher reported core sales growth of 3.0% on 21 Oct 2026. Danaher now excludes tariff refunds to customers from core growth; counting them gives 2.0%, which also clears the floor.Locked 2026-08-26
Resolved Oct 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-213ABB Q3 2026 revenueABB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$9.0bn (vs $9.5bn in Q2; orders +28%) — ~0.93HIT — locked ABB Q3 2026 revenue of at least $9.0bn. ABB's regulatory release reported $9,701m, 7.8% above the floor (read from the release's newswire copies; ABB's own site did not load).Locked 2026-08-26
Resolved Oct 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-317Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOMEAxis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOME >= INR 13,800 crore (Q1 NII INR 14,646cr; profit +22.5% was driven by provisions FALLING 43.7% while GNPA rose 1.23%→1.28%) — ~0.92HIT — locked Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 net interest income of at least ₹13,800 crore. Axis reported standalone NII of ₹15,371 crore, 11.4% above the floor. Locked on NII rather than profit because provisions, not the bank, were driving profit.Locked 2026-09-03
Resolved Oct 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-146UK September 2026 CPIUK Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.92HIT — locked UK September 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.5% YoY. The ONS printed 3.5% on 21 Oct 2026, up from 3.1%, exactly at the ceiling, which is inclusive. CPIH printed 3.6%: scoring that sibling measure would have produced a miss, and the criterion named CPI.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 21, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-152BHP Q1 FY2027 iron oreBHP Q1 FY27 WAIO iron ore ≥58Mt BHP-share (~8% below guided pace) — ~0.91HIT — locked BHP Q1 FY2027 Western Australia Iron Ore production of at least 58 Mt, BHP share. BHP reported 64.3 Mt on its share (71.9 Mt on a 100% basis) on 20 Oct 2026. A volume lock, not an iron-ore price call.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 21, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-166CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 average daily volume of at least 24m contracts. CME Group reported a third-quarter record of 29.4m (29,445k) on 21 Oct 2026, 22.7% above the floor: a wide floor that was not in contention.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 21, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-212Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total net revenues of at least $6.6bn. Charles Schwab reported a record $7,171m on 15 Oct 2026, +17% YoY.Locked 2026-08-26
Resolved Oct 21, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-160Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 steel mill shipments of at least 6.5m tons. Nucor's Steel Mills segment shipped 7,231k tons (Q2: 7,100k) per its 26 Oct 2026 release. Scored on the steel mills segment total the criterion names, not the 5,662k tons shipped to outside customers.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-161Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked a Q3 2026 reported operating ratio at or below 65%. Union Pacific reported 59.1% on 22 Oct 2026, 5.9 points inside the ceiling. Scored on the reported ratio, not the adjusted 58.8%.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-170GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $1.75. GE Aerospace reported $2.25 on 20 Oct 2026 (GAAP $2.32 not used), 28.6% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-214Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.94HIT — locked Q3 2026 TOTAL assets under management of at least $1.25tn. Blackstone reported $1,368.3bn at 30 Sep 2026, 9.5% above the floor. On fee-earning AUM ($989.7bn) this would have missed, which is why the criterion named total AUM.Locked 2026-08-26
Resolved Oct 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-288Atlas Copco Q3 2026 revenuesAtlas Copco Q3 2026 REVENUES >= SEK 42.0bn (LEVEL-anchored off Q2 SEK 44,974m — the company publishes no numeric guidance) — ~0.91HIT — locked Atlas Copco Q3 2026 revenues of at least SEK 42.0bn, level-anchored because the company publishes no numeric guidance. Atlas Copco reported SEK 47,920m.Locked 2026-09-02
Resolved Oct 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-305UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volumesUltraTech Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED sales volumes >= 36.0 Mt (Q1 41.31 Mt; domestic 39.2 Mt is 2.1 Mt lower and EXCLUDED; Q2 is the monsoon quarter) — ~0.90HIT — locked UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volume of at least 36.0 Mt in the monsoon quarter. UltraTech reported 38.22 Mt, measured on the same basis as Q1's 41.31 Mt. Domestic grey cement alone was 35.94 Mt, just under the floor; the criterion named consolidated volume and excluded the domestic line.Locked 2026-09-03
Resolved Oct 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-334Havells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUEHavells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS >= INR 5,600 crore (Q1 INR 6,518cr but Q1 is the SUMMER COOLING PEAK — 14% buffer; PAT fell 16.64% on doubled A&P spend) — ~0.91HIT — locked Havells India Q2 FY2027 revenue from operations of at least ₹5,600 crore, buffered 14% below a summer-peak Q1. Havells reported consolidated revenue from operations of ₹6,431.99 crore (standalone ₹6,416.62 crore).Locked 2026-09-03
Resolved Oct 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-215Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of at least $8.3bn. Comcast reported $9,106m on 22 Oct 2026, 9.7% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-26
Resolved Oct 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-216IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenueIndiGo Q2 FY27 revenue from operations ≥₹19,000cr (seasonal trough; revenue not profit) — ~0.92HIT — locked IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenue from operations of at least ₹19,000 crore in the seasonal trough. InterGlobe Aviation reported ₹23,363.8 crore on 29 Oct 2026. A revenue lock, not a profit lock.Locked 2026-08-26
Resolved Oct 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-289ASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 operating marginASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 OPERATING MARGIN >= 16.0% (LEVEL-anchored off a record Q2 17.0%; margin locked because the sales line has four components) — ~0.91HIT — locked ASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 operating margin of at least 16.0%. ASSA ABLOY reported an operating (EBIT) margin of 17.4% on 27 Oct 2026, the basis of the Q2 anchor; the EBITA margin of 18.7% also clears.Locked 2026-09-02
Resolved Oct 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-304Hindustan Unilever Q2 FY2027 EBITDA marginHUL Q2 FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 22.0% (guided 22.5-23.5%; revenue AND the DIRECTION of profit conflict across sources, margin does not) — ~0.92HIT — locked Hindustan Unilever's Q2 FY2027 EBITDA margin at or above 22.0%. HUL reported a consolidated EBITDA margin of 22.6% on 28 Oct 2026 (22.43% on the same basis as the Q1 22.76% the lock cited): the narrowest margin in this batch, 0.4-0.6 points clear.Locked 2026-09-03
Resolved Oct 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-329Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUENestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE >= INR 5,900 crore (Q1 INR 6,378.18cr; +25.16% was the fastest in FORTY quarters — so we lock the LEVEL, not the rate; profit reported as both INR 958.68cr and INR 975cr) — ~0.92HIT — locked Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 revenue of at least ₹5,900 crore, a level lock chosen because Q1's +25% was a forty-quarter record. Nestlé India reported revenue from operations of ₹6,788.34 crore.Locked 2026-09-03
Resolved Oct 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-222SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APESBI Life Q2 FY27 APE ≥₹4,800cr (quarter alone; APE not GWP or VoNB) — ~0.93HIT, with a basis note — locked SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APE of at least ₹4,800 crore for the quarter alone. SBI Life publishes APE year to date only: H1 ₹11,750 crore less Q1 ₹5,380 crore gives about ₹6,370 crore for Q2, 33% above the floor. No reading of the published figures produces a miss.Locked 2026-08-27
Resolved Oct 24, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-232Dr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 revenue from operationsDr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 7,400 crore (LEVEL locked — sources conflict on the YoY rate) — ~0.93HIT — locked Dr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenue from operations of at least ₹7,400 crore (a level lock, because sources conflicted on the YoY rate). Dr Reddy's reported ₹8,697.8 crore (IFRS headline ₹8,670.8 crore), above the floor on either basis.Locked 2026-08-29
Resolved Oct 24, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-150Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.90HIT — locked a Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio at or below 95%. Chubb reported 84.1% on 20 Oct 2026 (82.6% excluding catastrophe losses, not used), 10.9 points inside the ceiling.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 27, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-158Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 for the peak cruise quarter. Royal Caribbean reported $6.57 on 27 Oct 2026, 31.4% above the floor: a threshold set too low to be in contention.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 27, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-171WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA of at least $1.95bn. WM reported $2,121m on 27 Oct 2026, 8.8% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 27, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-188First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 module sales of at least 3.5GW. First Solar's Q3 2026 key quarterly data, published with its 29 Oct 2026 results, shows 4,128MW sold (production of 4,280MW not used), 17.9% above the floor. The results press release itself does not state the volume; the figure is from the company's own results-day schedule, corroborated by its earnings slides.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 27, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-209Reckitt FY2026 Core LFL floorReckitt keeps FY2026 Core LFL guidance floor ≥4% at Q3 (Core, not group LFL) — ~0.88MISS — locked that Reckitt would keep its FY2026 Core like-for-like guidance floor at 4% or above at Q3 (~0.88). On 27 Oct 2026 Reckitt CUT Core Reckitt guidance to +3.5% to +4.5% from +4.0% to +5.0%, after Q3 Core LFL growth of 3.3% on North American manufacturing constraints. Published as a miss.Locked 2026-08-26
Resolved Oct 27, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-219HSBC 9M 2026 revenueHSBC 9M 2026 constant-currency revenue ex-notables ≥$54bn ($38.2bn booked in H1) — ~0.93HIT — locked HSBC 9M 2026 constant-currency revenue excluding notable items of at least $54bn. HSBC reported $56,848m on that basis.Locked 2026-08-27
Resolved Oct 27, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-256POSCO Q3 2026 crude steel productionPOSCO Q3 2026 CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION >= 8.4 Mt (Q2 8,884kt at 89.5% util; NOT product sales volume, 527kt lower) — ~0.91HIT — locked POSCO Q3 2026 crude steel production of at least 8.4 Mt. POSCO's results deck (2 Nov 2026) reports 9,117kt for the steel company, the same series as the 8,884kt Q2 anchor. Scored on crude steel production, not product sales volume.Locked 2026-09-02
Resolved Oct 27, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-148UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of at least $21.0bn. UPS reported $22.9bn on 27 Oct 2026 (segment sum $22,853m), 9.0% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-156Australia Sept-quarter 2026 CPIAustralia Sept-qtr 2026 headline CPI ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.8% June qtr) — ~0.91HIT, with a basis note — locked Australia's September-quarter 2026 headline CPI annual movement at or below 4.5%. Since late 2025 the ABS has led with the monthly CPI and no longer states a quarterly headline annual rate. Every available reading clears the ceiling: the official quarterly index (103.64 vs 99.73 a year earlier) gives 3.9%, and the September monthly headline was 4.3%. The lock's 3.8% June-quarter baseline predates the ABS re-basing.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-191PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total payment volume of at least $460bn. PayPal reported $487.1bn on 27 Oct 2026, 5.9% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-239Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.94HIT — locked fiscal Q4 2026 net revenue (after client incentives) of at least $11.0bn. Visa reported $12,139m for the quarter to 30 Sep 2026, +13% YoY, released 27 Oct 2026, 10.4% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-29
Resolved Oct 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-78Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88HIT — locked Mounjaro plus Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue above $14.0bn. Eli Lilly reported Mounjaro $10,723m and Zepbound $5,352m on 29 Oct 2026, a combined $16,075m, 14.8% above the threshold.Locked 2026-06-23
Resolved Oct 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-173S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $3.80. S&P Global reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.58 on 27 Oct 2026 (GAAP $4.45 not used), 20.5% above the floor.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-174Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $4.20. Linde reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.59 on 29 Oct 2026, 9.3% above the floor. GAAP EPS of $3.66 would have missed; the criterion named adjusted EPS.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-190Universal Music Q3 2026 revenueUniversal Music Q3 2026 total revenue ≥€3.0bn (vs €3.294bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Universal Music Q3 2026 revenue of at least €3.0bn. UMG reported €3,394m (from the company's own PR Newswire release).Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-192Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 attributable gold production of at least 1.20m oz. Newmont reported 1,302k oz on 22 Oct 2026 (gold sales of 1,211k oz not used), 8.5% above the floor. A production lock, not a gold-price call.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Oct 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-49Canelo vs MbilliCanelo beats Mbilli (US ET card date) — calibrated ~0.72Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Sep 12, 2026Locked - P-105Copper end-October 2026LME copper closes end-Oct 2026 ≥ $9,000/t — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-231Holcim nine-month 2026 net salesHolcim 9M 2026 group NET SALES ≥ CHF 11.5bn (H1 CHF 7.9bn; FY guidance upgraded) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-298Maruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 sales volumesMaruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 TOTAL SALES VOLUMES >= 620,000 units (Q1 682,724; rupee revenue AND profit both conflict across sources so VOLUMES are locked) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-314Samsung DS Division Q3 2026 operating profitSamsung DS Division Q3 2026 operating profit >= KRW 60tn (Q2 DS KRW 89.2tn of a GROUP KRW 89.5tn — the mobile unit LOST KRW 0.7tn; calibration correction to P-106) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-73BitMine ETH treasuryBitMine disclosed ETH holdings ≥ 6,000,000 by Oct 31 — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Oct 31, 2026Locked - P-210AIA Q3 2026 year-to-date VONBAIA year-to-date VONB ≥US$4.4bn at Q3 2026 (VONB, not annualised new premium) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 31, 2026Locked - P-163South Korea October 2026 exportsSouth Korea Oct 2026 exports ≥US$70bn (level, not the base-effect growth rate) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 1, 2026Locked - P-172India October 2026 GSTIndia Oct 2026 gross GST ≥₹1.90 lakh crore (gross, not net of refunds) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 1, 2026Locked - P-223Muthoot Q2 FY2027 loan AUMMuthoot Q2 FY27 consolidated TOTAL loan AUM ≥₹1.95 lakh crore (not gold-only, not standalone) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 1, 2026Locked - P-60ARC Prize 2026 Grand Prize2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize unclaimed (ARC-AGI-2) — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Nov 2026Locked - P-194Indonesia October 2026 CPIIndonesia Oct 2026 headline annual CPI ≤4.0% (vs 2.88% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 2, 2026Locked - P-24US 2026 midterms — SenateRepublicans retain the Senate — calibrated ~0.54Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-44US House 2026 — DemocratsDemocrats win US House majority (≥218) — calibrated ~0.76Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Nov 2026Locked - P-169Marriott Q3 2026 RevPARMarriott Q3 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth ≥+1.0% (vs +3.4% in Q2) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-180Ryanair H1 FY2027 trafficRyanair H1 FY27 traffic ≥110M passengers (guided metric; profit guidance withdrawn) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-183Turkey October 2026 CPITürkiye Oct 2026 official annual CPI ≤40% (vs 31.75% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-196Switzerland October 2026 CPISwitzerland Oct 2026 headline annual CPI ≤1.5% (vs 0.4% July) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves ~Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-149Constellation FY2026 guidance floorConstellation keeps FY2026 adj operating EPS floor ≥$11.50 at Q3 — ~0.88Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 4, 2026Locked - P-330Saudi Aramco Q3 2026 BASE DIVIDENDSaudi Aramco Q3 2026 BASE DIVIDEND >= SAR 75bn (Q2 base dividend SAR 82.1bn; adj net income rose 33% on the Iran war — we do NOT lock earnings, that is an oil price bet) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 4, 2026Locked - P-164Maersk Q3 2026 underlying EBITDAMaersk Q3 2026 underlying EBITDA ≥US$2.2bn (~27% below Q2) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-175Trade Desk Q3 2026 revenueTrade Desk Q3 2026 revenue ≥$600M (below its own slashed ~$650M guide) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-177MercadoLibre Q3 2026 revenueMercadoLibre Q3 2026 net revenues ≥$9.5bn (vs $10.17bn in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-187Munich Re 9M 2026 net resultMunich Re 9M 2026 group net result ≥€4.8bn (€3.9bn already earned in H1) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-296Bharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 revenueBharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= Rs 55,000 crore (Q1 Rs 58,539cr; EBITDA vs EBITDAaL differ ~Rs 3,800cr so revenue is locked) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-310SBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profitSBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profit >= INR 19,000 crore (Q1 standalone INR 21,121cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 24,113cr — both reported as net profit) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-178Rheinmetall 9M 2026 salesRheinmetall 9M 2026 consolidated sales ≥€8.0bn (€5.23bn already booked in H1) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 6, 2026Locked - P-233Max Healthcare Q2 FY2027 network gross revenueMax Healthcare Q2 FY2027 NETWORK GROSS REVENUE ≥ Rs 2,850 crore (network line, NOT the consolidated line ~Rs 600cr lower) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Nov 6, 2026Locked - P-302Titan Q2 FY2027 consolidated total incomeTitan Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED TOTAL INCOME >= Rs 18,000 crore (Q1 Rs 20,753cr on Akshaya Tritiya; jewellery segment Rs 18,253cr sits beside the threshold and is EXCLUDED) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 6, 2026Locked - P-327Hero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDAHero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDA >= INR 1,450 crore (Q1 EBITDA INR 1,727cr; profit reported BOTH down 17% and up 29%; the 14-16% margin band is MEDIUM-TERM, not FY27 guidance) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 6, 2026Locked - P-168China October 2026 exportsChina Oct 2026 exports ≥US$300bn (level in USD, not the growth rate) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 7, 2026Locked - P-224China October 2026 PPIChina Oct 2026 PPI remains below 0% YoY (deflation persists; anti-thesis half) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 9, 2026Locked - P-227China October 2026 CPIChina Oct 2026 headline CPI ≤2.0% YoY (vs 0.5% July) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 9, 2026Locked - P-335Power Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profitPower Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profit >= INR 3,200 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 3,598cr vs standalone INR 3,411cr; income ROSE while profit FELL 0.9%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 9, 2026Locked - P-176Brazil October 2026 IPCABrazil Oct 2026 12-month IPCA ≤5.5% (vs 4.44% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 10, 2026Locked - P-318NTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PATNTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PAT >= INR 4,800 crore (Q1 standalone INR 5,342cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 6,896cr; the 9,557 MW FY27 capacity target could not be pinned to a basis) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 10, 2026Locked - P-186Vestas FY2026 margin floorVestas keeps FY2026 EBIT margin floor ≥7% at Q3 (raised from 6-8%) — ~0.88Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 11, 2026Locked - P-292Mainfreight H1 FY2027 revenueMainfreight H1 FY2027 group REVENUE >= NZ$2.60bn as reported (LEVEL-anchored — no numeric guidance; FY26 was NZ$5.38bn) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 11, 2026Locked - P-326Tata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDATata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 6,000 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 9,370cr but India STANDALONE INR 9,409cr — standalone HIGHER; Netherlands EUR 4m on EUR 1.4bn; war cost INR 1,200cr) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 11, 2026Locked - P-185Deutsche Telekom Q3 2026 EBITDAaLDeutsche Telekom Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAaL ≥€11.2bn (vs €11.8bn in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-208Cisco Q1 FY2027 revenueCisco Q1 FY2027 total revenue ≥$17.5bn (guide $18.0-18.2bn) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-211Hon Hai Q3 2026 revenueHon Hai Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥NT$2.4tn (floor BELOW Q2, in a quarter guided to grow) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-249Siemens FY2026 EPS pre-PPASiemens FY2026 basic EPS PRE-PPA >= EUR 10.70 (the floor held BEFORE the raise to EUR 11.20-11.50; FY ends 30 Sep 2026) — ~0.94Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-311Jaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenueJaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenue >= GBP 5.0bn (Q1 GBP 6.0bn, wholesales -10%, disclosed supply disruption; Tata Motors Q1 PAT reported as BOTH INR 775cr and INR 900cr) — ~0.89Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-234Samvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenueSamvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 33,000 crore (Q1 record Rs 35,243.8cr) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Nov 13, 2026Locked - P-341Apollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenueApollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue >= INR 6,500 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 7,043cr vs Healthcare Services INR 3,567cr; PAT growth reported as BOTH +34% and +38.4%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~Nov 13, 2026Locked - P-342Novelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDANovelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= US$400m (Q1 US$516m; parent Hindalco group EBITDA INR 14,989cr +73% on record aluminium margins was DECLINED as an LME bet; EBITDA growth reported as both +24% and +37%) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~Nov 13, 2026Locked - P-281Richemont H1 FY2027 salesRichemont H1 FY2027 group SALES >= EUR 11.5bn at actual rates (Q1 alone EUR 6.3bn; LEVEL-anchored — Richemont publishes no guidance) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Nov 14, 2026Locked - P-226China October 2026 M2 growthChina Oct 2026 M2 growth ≥7.0% YoY (rate not level - levels conflicted) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 15, 2026Locked - P-228China October 2026 total social financingChina Oct 2026 TSF STOCK growth ≥7.0% YoY (stock not flow) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 15, 2026Locked - P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Nov 16, 2026Locked - P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.87Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 17, 2026Locked - P-25GTA VI release dateGTA VI ships Nov 19 2026, no further delay — ~0.72Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Nov 19, 2026Locked - P-195Japan October 2026 core CPIJapan Oct 2026 core CPI ex-fresh-food ≤3.0% YoY (vs 1.8% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves ~Nov 20, 2026Locked - P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 25, 2026Locked - P-238Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE >= USD 4.5bn (the guidance floor held BEFORE August's raise to USD 4.75bn) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Nov 25, 2026Locked - P-241Fisher & Paykel Healthcare H1 FY2027 operating revenueF&P Healthcare H1 FY2027 OPERATING REVENUE >= NZ$1.18bn (guides ~NZ$1.24bn; reported NZD, no FX restatement) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Nov 25, 2026Locked - P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.72Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Nov 30, 2026Locked - P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Locked - P-157European TTF gas 1 Dec 2026TTF front-month gas settles ≤€100/MWh on 1 Dec 2026 — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Locked - P-182Uranium spot 1 Dec 2026Uranium spot ≤US$130/lb U3O8 on 1 Dec 2026 (spot, not long-term contract) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Locked - P-199Arabica coffee 1 Dec 2026ICE Arabica Coffee C settles ≤500c/lb on 1 Dec 2026 (~16% above the 52-week high) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Locked - P-20F1 2026 Drivers' title (rest-of-season simulation)Antonelli ~70% champion — 40k-run Monte-Carlo (model 81% / market 61%, disclosed)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Dec 2026Locked - P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260MLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Dec 21, 2026Locked - P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Dec 21, 2026Locked - P-203Nikkei 225 year-end 2026Nikkei 225 closes 2026 inside 50,000-82,000 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves ~Dec 30, 2026Locked - P-204DAX year-end 2026DAX closes 2026 inside 21,000-32,000 (band; correlated with P-198, disclosed) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves ~Dec 30, 2026Locked - P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-endLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-28Strategy (MSTR) 1M-BTC targetMSTR holds < 1,000,000 BTC at year-end — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-29Bitcoin year-end 2026BTC CME BRR settles < $90,000 on Dec 31 — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.84Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.97Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-53Metaplanet 100k-BTC targetMetaplanet holds < 100,000 BTC at year-end — calibrated ~0.88Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-61Stablecoin market capTotal stablecoin market cap > $340B at year-end — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-62USDT #1 stablecoinUSDT is the #1 stablecoin by market cap at year-end — ~0.98Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-63No private-fusion Q>1 in 2026No verified private-fusion scientific Q>1 in 2026 — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 2026Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.97Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-83Gold year-end 2026Gold closes 2026 ≥ $3,500/oz (structural floor) — ~0.95Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-102Nifty 50 year-end 2026India Nifty 50 closes 2026 ≥ 22,000 (vs ~24,022 spot) — ~0.80Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-111FIDE World Chess Championship 2026FIDE WCC 2026 match begins by Dec 31, 2026 — ~0.80Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-151USD/JPY year-end 2026USD/JPY closes 2026 inside 140–180 (band, direction not predicted) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-193Japan 10-year JGB year-end 2026Japan 10-year JGB yield closes 2026 ≤4.00% (vs 2.86% in mid-Aug; locked against the uptrend) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-197Silver year-end 2026Silver spot ≥US$38/oz at final 2026 close (floor sized to the 2011 -47% precedent) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-198German 10-year Bund year-end 2026German 10-year Bund yield closes 2026 ≤4.50% (vs 3.27%, a 15-year high; locked against trend) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-109LA Rams 2026 NFL playoffsLA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 4, 2027Locked - P-355Athens International Airport 2026 PASSENGERSAthens International Airport 2026 total PASSENGERS >= 34.9 million (27,310,164 in 9M, +4.3%; Q4 can fall 2.7% YoY and pass; NOT AIA Group P-210) — ~0.92Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Jan 8, 2027Locked - P-85Brent 2026 annual average2026 Brent calendar-year average ≥ $85/bbl (EIA) — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-86Henry Hub 2026 annual average2026 Henry Hub calendar-year average ≤ $4.25/MMBtu (EIA) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.94Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-354KGHM Polska Miedź FY2026 ELECTROLYTIC COPPERKGHM Polska Miedź S.A. 2026 ELECTROLYTIC COPPER >= 575 kt (budget 589 kt; 440.9 kt in 9M; Q4 needs 44.7 kt/month vs 48.7 in Sep; NOT Group payable copper) — ~0.91Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Jan 22, 2027Locked - P-259Canadian National FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS growthCN FY2026 ADJUSTED DILUTED EPS growth >= 3.0% (guidance raised to mid-to-high single digits; 3 EPS measures exist — adjusted diluted is the guided one) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 26, 2027Locked - P-235ASML FY2026 total net salesASML FY2026 TOTAL NET SALES >= EUR 40bn (the TOP of the OLD guidance range, not the floor of the raised EUR 43-45bn) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Jan 27, 2027Locked - P-253SAP FY2026 cloud revenueSAP FY2026 CLOUD REVENUE at CONSTANT CURRENCIES >= EUR 25.0bn (guidance EUR 25.8-26.2bn cc; backlog EUR 22.9bn) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 27, 2027Locked - P-236LVMH FY2026 revenueLVMH FY2026 reported group REVENUE >= EUR 76bn (seasonality-anchored; LVMH issues no revenue guidance) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Jan 28, 2027Locked - P-258Roche FY2026 sales growthRoche FY2026 GROUP sales growth >= 3% AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATES (H1 +6% CER vs -2% CHF — opposite signs; level conflict so the RATE is locked) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 28, 2027Locked - P-271KONE FY2026 adjusted EBIT marginKONE FY2026 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 11.8% (guidance 12.3-13% unchanged; threshold = the margin H1 already delivered) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 28, 2027Locked - P-265Teva FY2026 revenueTeva FY2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 16.0bn (guidance raised to USD 16.5-16.8bn; total revenue, NOT the separately-guided product lines) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 29, 2027Locked - P-79UnitedHealth FY2026 adjusted EPSFY2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $18.25 (guide floor) — calibrated ~0.82Locked 2026-06-23
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-872026 top-3 warmest year2026 ranks top-3 warmest year on record (Copernicus C3S) — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-99Toyota best-selling automaker 2026Toyota = world's best-selling automaker for calendar 2026 — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-218Diageo H1 FY2027 organic net salesDiageo H1 FY27 organic net sales growth ≥−5% (decline-bounded floor; organic not reported) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-267Ferrari FY2026 adjusted EBITDAFerrari FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= EUR 2.90bn (guidance raised to >=EUR 2.97bn; 4 metrics guided, this names one) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 2, 2027Locked - P-230Glencore FY2026 own-sourced copper productionGlencore FY2026 own-sourced copper ≥ 790kt (guidance basis 840kt; tonnes locked, price NOT forecast) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Feb 3, 2027Locked - P-255Santander FY2026 total revenueSantander FY2026 TOTAL REVENUE >= EUR 60.0bn (H1 EUR 30.85bn; revenue locked NOT profit — H1 profit carries a one-off) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 3, 2027Locked - P-261Equinor FY2026 oil and gas production growthEquinor FY2026 OIL AND GAS production growth >= 1.5% (guidance 3%, H1 delivered 6%; NOT renewable power, +11% in Q2) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 4, 2027Locked - P-264Vinci FY2026 free cash flowVinci FY2026 FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 5.4bn (guidance ~EUR 6bn; 10% buffer widened for construction cash-timing swings) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 4, 2027Locked - P-276DSV FY2026 EBIT before special itemsDSV FY2026 EBIT BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= DKK 22.5bn (guidance narrowed UP to DKK 23.5-25.5bn; forwarder, opposite freight exposure to P-237 Maersk) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 4, 2027Locked - P-283Givaudan FY2026 like-for-like sales growthGivaudan FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.0% (H1 +3.6% LFL vs -1.7% reported CHF — opposite signs; the 4-6% target is a 2026-2030 AVERAGE, not FY26 guidance) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 4, 2027Locked - P-237Maersk FY2026 underlying EBITDAMaersk FY2026 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= USD 10.0bn (guidance raised to USD 10.5-12.5bn; underlying NOT reported EBITDA) — ~0.89Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Feb 5, 2027Locked - P-282UniCredit FY2026 net profitUniCredit FY2026 REPORTED net profit >= EUR 10.5bn incl. integration costs (guidance raised 3x to well above EUR 11bn) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 9, 2027Locked - P-254Heineken FY2026 organic operating profit growthHeineken FY2026 ORGANIC operating profit growth >= 1.5% (reiterated 2-6% guide; H1 was 6.7%, above its own top) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 10, 2027Locked - P-260DBS FY2026 total incomeDBS FY2026 GROUP TOTAL INCOME > FY2025 (relative comparison — the 2025 base could not be independently verified, so no threshold was invented) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 10, 2027Locked - P-251ArcelorMittal FY2026 iron ore shipmentsArcelorMittal FY2026 IRON ORE shipments >= 17.0 Mt (guidance maintained 18 Mt; mining leg, explicitly NOT a steel call) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 11, 2027Locked - P-252Unilever FY2026 underlying sales growthUnilever FY2026 UNDERLYING sales growth >= 3.5% (guided within 4-6%; H1 4.8% with 4.2pts volume) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 11, 2027Locked - P-266Adyen FY2026 net revenue growthAdyen FY2026 NET REVENUE growth >= 18% AT CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 21-23% cc; H1 +19% reported vs +21% cc) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 11, 2027Locked - P-278RELX FY2026 profit growth vs revenue growthRELX FY2026 UNDERLYING adjusted operating profit growth EXCEEDS underlying revenue growth (relative lock — RELX guided a relationship, not a number) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 11, 2027Locked - P-303Enbridge FY2026 adjusted EBITDAEnbridge FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= C$19.6bn (guidance C$20.2-20.8bn reaffirmed; C$41bn secured backlog; tolls on volume not the oil price) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Feb 12, 2027Locked - P-30Hyperscaler 2026 capexMSFT+GOOGL+AMZN+META CY2026 capex ≥ $600B — ~0.95Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-31OpenAI revenue run-rateAnnualized run-rate ≥ $30B at end-2026 — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-64DraftKings FY2026 revenueFY2026 revenue inside $6.5–6.9B guidance band — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-262América Móvil FY2026 capital expenditureAmérica Móvil FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 6.3bn (guidance ~USD 7bn; capex locked because Q2 EBITDA growth was published 3 ways) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 16, 2027Locked - P-268Carrefour FY2026 net free cash flowCarrefour FY2026 GROUP NET FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 1,450m (floor set BELOW the 2025 base of EUR 1,565m — H1 was NEGATIVE EUR 1.99bn) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 17, 2027Locked - P-269Woodside FY2026 productionWoodside FY2026 group PRODUCTION >= 170 MMboe (guidance 174-185 reaffirmed; H1 86.5; a source discrepancy is disclosed and non-decisive) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 17, 2027Locked - P-248Nestlé FY2026 organic sales growthNestlé FY2026 ORGANIC sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance 3-4%; organic = RIG + pricing, NOT reported sales) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 18, 2027Locked - P-277Schneider Electric FY2026 organic revenue growthSchneider Electric FY2026 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 8.5% (guidance raised to 10-13% from 7-10%; threshold sits between the two floors) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 18, 2027Locked - P-280Zurich Insurance FY2026 business operating profitZurich FY2026 GROUP business operating profit >= USD 9.0bn (record H1 USD 4.8bn; FY2025 USD 8.9bn; buffer sized for hurricane season) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 18, 2027Locked - P-322Vale 2026 iron ore PRODUCTIONVale calendar-2026 iron ore PRODUCTION >= 320 Mt (guidance 335-345 Mt maintained with 2 quarters banked; NOT sales, NOT pellets; cost guidance RAISED to US$58-62/t) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Feb 18, 2027Locked - P-274Safran FY2026 recurring operating incomeSafran FY2026 RECURRING OPERATING INCOME >= EUR 6.2bn (guidance raised to ~EUR 6.5bn; H1 EUR 3,237m +29%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 19, 2027Locked - P-279Iberdrola FY2026 adjusted net profit growthIberdrola FY2026 ADJUSTED net profit growth >= 5% (guidance comfortably above 8%; H1 reported +22% vs adjusted +8% — widest gap locked against) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 24, 2027Locked - P-285Danone FY2026 like-for-like sales growthDanone FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance +3-5% confirmed; H1 3.5%, Q2 4.2%; growth split 1.7% volume / 1.8% price) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 24, 2027Locked - P-345CP All 7-Eleven THAILAND store count at 31 Dec 2026CP All 7-ELEVEN THAILAND net store count at 31 Dec 2026 >= 16,500 (16,284 at 30 Jun 2026 from 15,945 at end-2025; ~700 openings targeted — locked at a 40% shortfall to plan) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~Feb 24, 2027Locked - P-217AXA FY2026 underlying EPS growthAXA FY2026 underlying EPS growth ≥6% (reported outcome, not guidance restatement) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-250Petrobras FY2026 oil productionPetrobras FY2026 average OIL production >= 2.45 million bpd (NOT oil-and-gas on a boe basis; Q2 record 2.7 mmbpd) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-272Bank Central Asia FY2026 net profitBCA FY2026 CONSOLIDATED NET PROFIT >= IDR 56tn (H1 IDR 29.5tn; loan-book sources conflict IDR 1,036 vs 1,082tn so profit is locked) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-273LSEG FY2026 organic revenue growthLSEG FY2026 TOTAL ORGANIC revenue growth >= 6.0% at CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 7.0-7.5%; NOT subscription growth, guided ~6.5%, which straddles this floor) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-293Summerset FY2026 group home deliveriesSummerset FY2026 GROUP home deliveries >= 650 incl. Australia (guidance 700-800; NZ-only guidance CUT by 50 to 600-650 — the criterion names GROUP) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-347Scales Corporation FY2026 UNDERLYING NPATASScales Corporation FY2026 UNDERLYING NPATAS >= NZ$54m (guidance raised to NZ$55-60m; NZ$52.0m banked in 1H26, so H2 needs only NZ$2.0m) — ~0.91Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-356LATAM Airlines 2026 TOTAL ASK growthLATAM Airlines 2026 TOTAL ASK GROWTH >= 7.5% (guidance CUT 3 Nov to 8.5-9.5%; 9M +8.9%, 3Q +7.7%; capacity, not fuel-driven EBITDA) — ~0.91Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-270BASF FY2026 EBITDA before special itemsBASF FY2026 EBITDA BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= EUR 6.6bn (guidance raised to EUR 6.9-7.7bn; prior-guidance anchor consciously OVERRIDDEN, see brief) — ~0.94Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 26, 2027Locked - P-284Amadeus FY2026 revenueAmadeus FY2026 group REVENUE >= EUR 6.4bn (LEVEL-anchored off banked H1 EUR 3,334.9m; the trimmed outlook range could not be verified and is NOT the anchor) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 26, 2027Locked - P-286Veolia FY2026 organic EBITDA growthVeolia FY2026 ORGANIC EBITDA growth >= 4.0% (guidance MAINTAINED 5-6% while net income guidance was RAISED to >=8% — we anchored on the one that held) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 26, 2027Locked - P-346Channel Infrastructure FY2026 EBITDAChannel Infrastructure FY2026 EBITDA >= NZ$100m (guidance NZ$103-108m, raised twice in 2026; H1 banked NZ$48.8m so H2 needs NZ$51.2m; US$5.95m asset sale is the basis trap) — ~0.91Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Feb 26, 2027Locked - P-357UCB 2026 REVENUE GROWTH at CERUCB 2026 REVENUE GROWTH at CER >= 9.0% (raised guide: low-to-mid teens at CER; H1 +27% CER; reported ran 5pts below CER) — ~0.90Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Feb 26, 2027Locked - P-32TKO Group FY2026 revenueFY2026 total revenue ≥ $5.60B (floor) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-257Saudi Aramco FY2026 capital expenditureSaudi Aramco FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 48bn (guidance unchanged USD 50-55bn; H1 USD 25.1bn) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Mar 9, 2027Locked - P-275adidas FY2026 operating profitadidas FY2026 OPERATING PROFIT >= EUR 2.10bn (guidance ~EUR 2.3bn; ~9% buffer for EUR 212m committed World Cup marketing) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Mar 10, 2027Locked - P-291Bayer FY2026 salesBayer FY2026 SALES >= EUR 43.0bn CURRENCY-ADJUSTED (guidance EUR 44.7-47bn affirmed; H1 loads the year on planting seasons) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Mar 10, 2027Locked - P-338Standard Bank Group 2026 HEADLINE EARNINGSStandard Bank Group calendar-2026 HEADLINE EARNINGS >= R48bn (H1 record R26.1bn, ROE 19.8%; headline earnings is a JSE-DEFINED measure, NOT IFRS profit; 2028 targets excluded) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Mar 11, 2027Locked - P-229Enel FY2026 ordinary EBITDAEnel FY2026 ORDINARY EBITDA ≥ EUR 22.5bn (guidance EUR 23.1-23.6bn; H1 EUR 11.8bn) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Mar 18, 2027Locked - P-351Hindustan Zinc FY2027 MINED METAL productionHindustan Zinc FY2027 MINED METAL >= 1,100 kt (guidance 1,150 kt ±10; H1 a record 539 kt; MINED not refined; tonnes, not the zinc price) — ~0.91Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Apr 5, 2027Locked - P-352Jubilant FoodWorks DOMINO'S INDIA store count at 31 Mar 2027Jubilant FoodWorks DOMINO'S INDIA net stores at 31 Mar 2027 >= 2,670 (2,455 at FY26 end, 2,601 at 30 Sep; needs 69 net in H2; group total excluded) — ~0.91Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Apr 7, 2027Locked - P-337JSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel productionJSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel production >= 25.0 Mt (guidance ~28-29 Mt but Q1 annualises to 26.4 Mt — locked BELOW the run rate; correlated with P-326, disclosed) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Apr 8, 2027Locked - P-359Adani Green Energy OPERATIONAL CAPACITY at 31 Mar 2027Adani Green Energy OPERATIONAL CAPACITY at 31 Mar 2027 >= 22,000 MW (SUB-GUIDANCE FLOOR: 4.5-5 GW target conditional on a delayed transmission corridor; 20,763 MW at 30 Sep) — ~0.88Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Apr 10, 2027Locked - P-319HCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growthHCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growth >= 0.5% (guidance 1-4% RETAINED; Q1 was +2.6% YoY and −0.5% QoQ in cc, +3.0% and −0.9% in USD) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Apr 22, 2027Locked - P-344Ambuja Cements capacity at end-FY2027Ambuja Cements CEMENT CAPACITY at end-FY2027 >= 115 MTPA (109 MTPA today, 119 MTPA targeted, trial production commenced; Q1 volume FELL 14% so the 8% volume guidance was declined per the P-328 reasoning) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~May 3, 2027Locked - P-336Marico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUEMarico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= INR 14,000 crore (stated goal to cross INR 15,000cr; Q1 INR 3,957cr; domestic volume +11% was a 20-quarter high so we lock the LEVEL) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 4, 2027Locked - P-312Adani Ports FY2027 EBITDAAdani Ports FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 23,000 crore (guidance INR 25,000-26,000cr maintained with H1 reassessment flagged; Q1 +19% but domestic volume +2%) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 5, 2027Locked - P-353CreditAccess Grameen AUM at 31 Mar 2027CreditAccess Grameen AUM at 31 Mar 2027 >= INR 33,500 crore (SUB-GUIDANCE FLOOR: 20-25% guide implies INR 35,508cr but H1 grew only 4.6%) — ~0.89Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~May 5, 2027Locked - P-333Trent total store count at 31 Mar 2027Trent NET total store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 1,350 (1,312 at 30 Jun 2026; +20 net in Q1 while DMart added 3; profit growth reported as 22%, 23.5% AND 26%) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 6, 2027Locked - P-320Avenue Supermarts store count at 31 Mar 2027Avenue Supermarts NET DMart store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 515 (503 at 30 Jun 2026; only 3 added in Q1, fewest in 12 quarters; closures count against it) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 8, 2027Locked - P-309Asian Paints FY2027 decorative volume growthAsian Paints FY2027 DECORATIVE VOLUME growth >= 5.0% (guidance 8-10% maintained; Q1 volume 9.0% vs VALUE 16.6% — NOT value, NOT revenue) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 10, 2027Locked - P-350Godrej Properties FY2027 BOOKING VALUEGodrej Properties FY2027 BOOKING VALUE >= INR 35,500 crore (guidance INR 39,000cr; H1 banked INR 16,659cr; H2 needs INR 18,841cr vs INR 18,584cr a year earlier; bookings not revenue) — ~0.90Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~May 10, 2027Locked - P-297Larsen & Toubro FY2027 revenue growthL&T FY2027 GROUP revenue growth >= 7% (guidance 10-12% MAINTAINED but Q1 delivered 7% — threshold set at the delivered rate, not the guided one) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 11, 2027Locked - P-340Indian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growthIndian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 7.0% (double-digit guidance reaffirmed; Q1 +15%, a 17th straight record; SEASONALITY INVERTED — Apr-Jun is the WEAKEST quarter) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~May 11, 2027Locked - P-287Alstom FY2026/27 adjusted EBIT marginAlstom FY2026/27 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 6.0% (guidance ~6.5% confirmed; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027; EUR 102.8bn backlog) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~May 12, 2027Locked - P-299Toyota FY2027 operating incomeToyota FY2027 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 3.1tn (forecast RAISED JPY 400bn to 3.4tn on FX while Q1 operating income FELL — threshold between old and new) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 12, 2027Locked - P-321Britannia FY2027 EBITDA marginBritannia FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 15.0% (Q1 16.81% vs 16.38%; Q1 revenue reported as BOTH INR 5,000cr/+8.17% and INR 4,964cr/+9.5%, irreconcilable) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 12, 2027Locked - P-247Sony FY2026 operating incomeSony FY2026 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 1,600bn (guidance raised to JPY 1,720bn; Q1 carried ~JPY 80bn one-off tariff refunds) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~May 14, 2027Locked - P-328Cipla FY2027 EBITDA marginCipla FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 16.0% (guidance 18.5-20% MAINTAINED while Q1 printed 16.7%, down 881bp YoY from 25.56%; locked BELOW guidance deliberately) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 14, 2027Locked - P-290Experian FY2027 organic revenue growthExperian FY2027 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 5.0% (guidance 6-8% maintained; Q1 was +10% actual / +8% cc / +7% organic; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~May 19, 2027Locked - P-242Infratil FY2027 proportionate operational EBITDAFInfratil FY2027 PROPORTIONATE OPERATIONAL EBITDAF excl. corporate costs >= NZ$1,250m (guidance NZ$1,300-1,400m) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~May 20, 2027Locked - P-313Sun Pharma FY2027 consolidated revenue growthSun Pharma FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 5.0% YoY in INR (guidance is the PHRASE 'high single digits', not a number; Q1 +10.46%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 20, 2027Locked - P-358Bharat Electronics FY2027 STANDALONE REVENUEBharat Electronics FY2027 STANDALONE REVENUE from operations >= INR 30,500 crore (~15% growth target on INR 27,479.63cr; H1 +26%; H2 needs only +2.2%) — ~0.90Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~May 20, 2027Locked - P-301Ryman Healthcare FY2027 build deliveryRyman FY2027 BUILD DELIVERY >= 150 units and beds (guidance 157-168; locked on countable output because FY26 was a NZ$171.3m loss driven by revaluations) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 21, 2027Locked - P-331Turners Automotive FY2027 NORMALISED NPBTTurners Automotive FY2027 NORMALISED NPBT >= NZ$58m (NZ$65m target pulled forward from FY2028 into FY2027 and HELD; FY26 record NZ$63.2m) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 24, 2027Locked - P-343ONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil productionONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil production >= 17.0 MMT (Q1 4.452 MMT; profit +112% to INR 17,034cr purely on realisation US$66.13→US$99.45/bbl with volumes FLAT — earnings declined as a price call) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~May 27, 2027Locked - P-360India central government CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FY2026-27India central CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FY2026-27 >= INR 11,30,000 crore on CGA provisional actuals (BE INR 12,21,821cr; FY26 RE came in 2.3% below BE; NOT effective capex) — ~0.89Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~May 31, 2027Locked - P-244Contact Energy FY2027 EBITDAFContact Energy FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (FY26 EBITDAF NZ$1,011m; floor set robust to the EBITDAF vs 'normalised EBITDA' label mismatch) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Aug 16, 2027Locked - P-339Heartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPATHeartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPAT >= NZ$92m (guidance is a FLOOR — 'at least NZ$102m' — EXCLUDING TSB transaction costs; FY26 underlying NZ$90.4m vs REPORTED NZ$93.2m) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~Aug 17, 2027Locked - P-246Spark New Zealand FY2027 adjusted EBITDAISpark NZ FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAI >= NZ$980m (guidance NZ$1,010-1,080m; guidance credibility explicitly discounted) — ~0.89Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Aug 18, 2027Locked - P-306Fletcher Building FY2027 EBIT ex-propertyFletcher FY2027 EBIT before significant items EXCLUDING property sales >= NZ$300m (FY26 NZ$362m ex-property vs NZ$414m incl; management WARNED on 1H FY27) — ~0.88Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 18, 2027Locked - P-243Auckland Airport FY2027 underlying profit after taxAuckland Airport FY2027 UNDERLYING PROFIT AFTER TAX >= NZ$280m (guidance NZ$290-330m; underlying not statutory) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Aug 19, 2027Locked - P-294EBOS Group FY2027 underlying EBITDAEBOS FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= A$610m in AUSTRALIAN dollars (guidance A$635-655m; NZ-domiciled but guides in AUD) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 19, 2027Locked - P-332Vulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAVulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$120m (FY26 NZ$130m; FY27 gets TWELVE months of Roofing Industries vs nine; NZ$130m EBITDA became NZ$18m NPAT) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 19, 2027Locked - P-316Vector FY2027 adjusted EBITDAVector FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$500m (guidance NZ$540-560m; FY26 NZ$482m on the ComCom price reset; chosen as the UNCORRELATED counterweight to P-244/P-300/P-308) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 20, 2027Locked - P-323SkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDASkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= NZ$150m (FY26 underlying NZ$181.6m vs REPORTED NZ$120.5m, NZ$61m apart; NO FY27 guidance; NZ$30m cost-out targeted) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 20, 2027Locked - P-245a2 Milk FY2027 revenuea2 Milk FY2027 total REVENUE >= NZ$2,000m (DERIVED: mid-single-digit guided growth applied to the FY2026 base of NZ$1,974.9m; a rate was guided, not a level) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Aug 23, 2027Locked - P-295Chorus FY2027 EBITDAChorus FY2027 EBITDA >= NZ$715m (guidance NZ$730-760m; the regulated fibre network under Spark at P-246) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 23, 2027Locked - P-315Freightways FY2027 EBITAFreightways FY2027 EBITA >= NZ$160m (NO numeric FY27 guidance; management said 'softer for longer'; FY26 EBITA NZ$181.6m) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 23, 2027Locked - P-324Skellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPATSkellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPAT >= NZ$58m (FY26 NZ$64.2m, a TENTH straight record; net debt <NZ$2m; management sees 'no early signs of slowdown') — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 24, 2027Locked - P-300Meridian Energy FY2027 EBITDAFMeridian FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$950m (guidance NZ$1,040-1,120m assuming NORMAL hydrology; FY26 NZ$1,051m vs FY25 NZ$611m drought — buffer 8.7% for rainfall) — ~0.89Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 25, 2027Locked - P-307Port of Tauranga FY2027 underlying earningsPort of Tauranga FY2027 UNDERLYING earnings >= NZ$145m (guidance NZ$160-175m; FY26 record NZ$155.3m; Air NZ scouted and DROPPED for withdrawing FY27 guidance) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 25, 2027Locked - P-308Mercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAFMercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (guidance is a POINT of NZ$1,075m conditioned on 4.1TWh hydro; FY26 NZ$1,068m; correlated with P-244 and P-300) — ~0.89Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 25, 2027Locked - P-348Sky Network Television FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDASky Network Television FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= NZ$145m (guidance NZ$155-165m excluding one-offs; FY26 reported NZ$170.2m ran ABOVE underlying NZ$157.0m) — ~0.90Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Aug 27, 2027Locked - P-349Delegat Group FY2027 GLOBAL CASE SALESDelegat Group FY2027 GLOBAL CASE SALES >= 3.25m (plan 3.4m; FY26 3.32m; the NZ$62-66m profit forecast is FX-driven, so we lock volume) — ~0.90Locked 2026-11-05
Resolves ~Aug 27, 2027Locked