Prediction Series · Track Record
Every forecast, locked and scored.
The RAOSCAFF Prediction Series is a run of timestamped, falsifiable public forecasts. Each is locked in writing before the event — the commit timestamp is the cryptographic lock — and scored honestly against its literal criterion when it resolves.
345
Forecasts locked
265
Awaiting event
0
Scoring
80
Resolved + scored
Locked confident. Resolved honest.We score every forecast against the exact criterion we locked — not a directional vibe — and we publish the result even when we miss. P-02 is on this board as a recorded miss for exactly that reason: a forecast you can’t check isn’t intelligence.
- P-01US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).Locked 2026-05-26
Resolved Jun 10, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-02US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.Locked 2026-05-26
Resolved Jun 17, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-65Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom).Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Jun 24, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-09BYD Q2 NEV sales> 950k units (Apr+May already public = 704.6k)HIT - BYD Q2 NEV sales 1.108M units, >950k.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved ~Jul 1, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-05Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved ~Jul 2, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-66Australia Women — T20 WC finalAustralia Women reach the ICC Women's T20 WC 2026 final — ~0.72HIT - Australia Women reached (and won) the ICC Women's T20 WC final, beating England by 7 wickets.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jun 30 / Jul 2, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-13F1 — Antonelli's title leadStill standings leader after the British GPHIT - Antonelli remained championship leader after the British GP (Leclerc won; Antonelli P16/no points after a wheel-shield failure); lead trimmed to 25 pts over Russell. Criterion = still leader, TRUE.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-80OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82HIT - OPEC+ announced an August output increase of 188,000 bpd (>0).Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved ~Jul 6, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-112026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 8, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-43TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenueQ1 FY27 consolidated USD revenue in $7.55–7.85BHIT - TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenue ~$7.58bn, inside $7.55-7.85bn.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 2026Resolved · Hit - P-118PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 9, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-131Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 10, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-14Wimbledon men's singlesChampion is NOT Alcaraz (withdrew, not in draw)HIT - the champion was NOT Alcaraz: Jannik Sinner beat Alexander Zverev to retain the title.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 12, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-18Wimbledon 2026 men's (draw simulation)Sinner ~51% title (sim 41% / market 58%) — 50k-draw Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Sinner (locked ~51%) won the title, defending his crown.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Jul 12, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-03India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)MISS - locked 4.6% (above the ~4.5% consensus); India June CPI printed 4.38%, below both.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved ~Jul 13, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-97JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 14, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-107Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018).Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Jul 14, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-120Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 14, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-116J&J Q2 2026 adjusted EPSJohnson & Johnson Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.70 — ~0.90HIT - Johnson & Johnson Q2 adjusted EPS $2.90, >=$2.70.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 15, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-128Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenueMorgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $16.0bn (vs ~$19.1bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Morgan Stanley Q2 net revenue $21.3bn, >=$16.0bn.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 15, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-134BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Jul 15, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-08TSMC Q2 revenue≥ NT$1.23T (Apr+May already public = 827.7B)HIT - TSMC Q2 revenue NT$1,270.38bn (~NT$1.27T), >=NT$1.23T.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-12Netflix Q2 revenue$12.30–12.85B (±2.2% of its $12.57B guide)HIT - Netflix Q2 revenue $12.56bn, inside the $12.30-12.85bn band.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved ~Jul 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-90ASML Q2 2026 net salesASML Q2 2026 total net sales ≥€8.2bn — ~0.93HIT - ASML Q2 net sales EUR 9.3bn, >=EUR 8.2bn.Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved ~Jul 16, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-06FIFA World Cup 2026Calibrated ensemble + partitions (not a named champion)HIT (all partitions) - Spain won: not a first-time nation (the 63.3% side), UEFA winner (65.8%), not CONMEBOL, and both finalists (Spain + Argentina) were in the frozen Big-4 so >=1-Big-4-in-the-final (72.5%). Champion Spain was the ensemble's #2 name (14.2%).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 19, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-15The Odyssey (Nolan)Opens #1, ≥ $80M 3-day domesticHIT - The Odyssey opened #1 at $124.5M domestic, >=$80M (Nolan's best opening).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 19, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-19The Open 2026 (golf field simulation)Scheffler 15.8% win / 60% top-5 — 100k-tournament Monte-Carlo (field 43.3%)HIT (calibrated) - Scheffler finished T4, meeting the 60% top-5 and 86% top-10 calls; and the brief's explicit signal that the field (43.3%) was the likeliest winner held as longshot Ryan Fox won. The locked win prob was only 15.8%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Jul 19, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-35HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 PATQ1 FY27 standalone PAT > ₹18,155cr one-off-inflated base — ~0.60HIT - HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 standalone PAT ~INR 19,060cr, >INR 18,155cr.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-127Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPSLockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $6.00 (vs ~$7.20 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Lockheed Martin Q2 EPS $7.94, >=$6.00.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 21, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-133Verizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPSVerizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $1.15 (vs ~$1.27 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Verizon Q2 adjusted EPS $1.30, >=$1.15.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 21, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-33Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 UnpackedFold 8 / Fold 8 Wide announced at summer-2026 UnpackedHIT - Samsung announced the Galaxy Z Fold 8 (+ Fold 8 Ultra, Flip 8) at Unpacked on Jul 22.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 2026Resolved · Hit - P-45Alphabet Q2 Google CloudGoogle Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 50% YoYHIT - Google Cloud Q2 revenue grew 82% YoY, >=50%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-101Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic growthCoca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 3% — ~0.90HIT - Coca-Cola Q2 organic revenue growth +6%, >=3%.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Jul 22, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-93Infosys Q1 FY27Infosys keeps FY27 CC guidance floor ≥1.5% + Q1 rev ≥$4.9bn — ~0.85HIT - Infosys kept its FY27 CC growth floor at 1.5% (narrowed to 1.5-3.0%) and Q1 revenue was $5.08bn (>=$4.9bn).Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved Jul 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-96Intel Q2 2026 revenueIntel Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $13.8bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Intel Q2 revenue $16.1bn, >=$13.8bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 23, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-17Tour de France 2026 (GC simulation)Pogačar 56.9% win / 91.8% podium — 200k-race Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Pogacar (56.9% win) won the Tour, his 5th title, and podiumed.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Jul 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-98LVMH H1 2026 organic growthLVMH H1 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 0% — ~0.74HIT - LVMH H1 organic revenue growth +2%, >=0%.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-104Visa fiscal Q3 2026 net revenueVisa FQ3 2026 GAAP net revenue ≥ $11.2bn — ~0.90HIT - Visa fiscal-Q3 net revenue $11.6bn, >=$11.2bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved Jul 28, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-07Fed July FOMCNo cut (target held ≥ 3.50–3.75%)HIT - the Fed held the target range at 3.50-3.75% (9-3) on Jul 29; no cut.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-34Meta Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $58.0B (guide floor)HIT - Meta Q2 revenue $60.8bn, >=$58.0bn.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-95Spotify Q2 2026 usersSpotify Q2 2026 MAU ≥770M and Premium subs ≥296M — ~0.93HIT - Spotify Q2 MAU 777M (>=770M) and Premium subs 300M (>=296M).Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved ~Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-106SK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profitSK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profit ≥ ₩32tn — ~0.91HIT - SK Hynix Q2 operating profit ~KRW 60.5tn, >=KRW 32tn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-125Ford Q2 2026 adjusted EBITFord Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT positive (>$0) — ~0.85HIT - Ford Q2 adjusted EBIT +$2.5bn (positive).Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-135ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenueServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue ≥ $3.80bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - ServiceNow Q2 subscription revenue $3.877bn, >=$3.80bn.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Jul 29, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-41Azure Q4 FY26 cloud growthAzure FQ4-FY26 growth ≥ 39% cc (guide floor) — ~0.78HIT - Azure fiscal-Q4 grew 43% (43% cc), >=39%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 2026Resolved · Hit - P-42AWS Q2 2026 growthAWS Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 25% YoYHIT - AWS Q2 revenue grew ~37% YoY, >=25%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 2026Resolved · Hit - P-46Apple Q3 FY26 revenueApple June-quarter revenue grows ≥ 14% YoY (guide floor)HIT - Apple fiscal-Q3 (June quarter) revenue $109.4bn, +16% YoY, >=+14%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Jul 30, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-114Mastercard Q2 2026 net revenueMastercard Q2 2026 net revenue grows ≥8% YoY cc — ~0.88HIT - Mastercard Q2 net revenue +12% currency-neutral, >=8%.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Jul 30, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-124US Q2 2026 GDP advance estimateUS Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate ≥ 1.0% annualized (GDPNow ~3.0%) — ~0.88HIT - US Q2 GDP advance +1.5% annualized, >=1.0% (below the 2.1% forecast but above the locked floor).Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Jul 30, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-91Bank of Japan July 2026 decisionBoJ holds policy rate at 1.0% at July 2026 meeting — ~0.85HIT - the BoJ held the policy rate at 1.0% (8-1) at the July meeting.Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved ~Jul 31, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-121ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPSExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.50 (vs ~$3.50 consensus) — ~0.88HIT - ExxonMobil Q2 adjusted EPS $3.52, >=$2.50.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Jul 31, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-10Spider-Man: Brand New DayOpens #1, ≥ $140M 3-day domesticHIT - Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened #1 at $360M domestic, >=$140M (biggest opening ever).Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Aug 2, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-37EU AI Act Aug 2 appliesGPAI enforcement + Art 50(1) applicable on schedule (50(2) watermarking excluded)HIT - the EU AI Act's GPAI enforcement powers took effect on schedule on Aug 2, 2026 (Art 50(2) watermarking was excluded from the lock).Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Aug 2, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-47AMD Q2 2026 revenueAMD Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $10.9B (guide floor)HIT - AMD Q2 revenue $11.5bn, >=$10.9bn (record).Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 4, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-129Pfizer FY2026 guidance floorPfizer keeps FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $2.80 at Q2 — ~0.88HIT - Pfizer reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance $2.80-3.00 at Q2; floor >=$2.80 kept.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 4, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-132Caterpillar Q2 2026 revenueCaterpillar Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $17.0bn (vs ~$19bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Caterpillar Q2 revenue $20.5bn, >=$17.0bn (first >$20bn quarter).Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved Aug 4, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-04RBI August MPCHold 5.25% (0.91) · Neutral (0.95) · 6-0 (0.72)HIT (all three partitions) - RBI held repo 5.25%, retained the Neutral stance, unanimous 6-0.Locked 2026-06-20
Resolved Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-67Qualcomm FQ3 2026 revenueQualcomm FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $9.2B (guide floor)HIT - Qualcomm fiscal-Q3 revenue $9.95bn, >=$9.2bn.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-68Reliance Q1 FY27 revenueReliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grows ≥ 5% YoYHIT - Reliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue +24.5% YoY, >=5%.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 2026Resolved · Hit - P-92Novo Nordisk Wegovy Q2 2026Novo Wegovy franchise sales grow Q2 > Q1 2026 — ~0.80HIT - Wegovy franchise grew Q2>Q1: Wegovy pill DKK 2,256M -> 3,141M (+885M QoQ); Novo beat on Wegovy and raised FY guidance, obesity-care sales up. Pill-driven; the injectable faced YoY price pressure.Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-113Uber Q2 2026 gross bookingsUber Q2 2026 gross bookings ≥ $55bn — ~0.93HIT - Uber Q2 gross bookings $58.0bn, >=$55bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-117Airbnb Q2 2026 revenueAirbnb Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $3.45bn — ~0.91HIT - Airbnb Q2 revenue $3.6bn, >=$3.45bn.Locked 2026-06-25
Resolved ~Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-122Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 revenueArm FQ1 2027 revenue ≥ $1.21bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Arm fiscal-Q1 FY27 revenue $1.289bn, >=$1.21bn.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 5, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-38Nintendo Switch 2 unitsSwitch 2 cumulative units shipped ≥ 22.0M at Q1 FY27 — ~0.72HIT - Switch 2 lifetime units 23.68M at Q1 FY27 (Jun 30), >=22.0M.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Aug 6, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-55Mario Kart World unitsMK World lifetime units > 15M at Nintendo Q1 FY27HIT - Mario Kart World lifetime units 15.39M at Q1 FY27, >15M.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~early Aug 2026Resolved · Hit - P-123McDonald's Q2 2026 global compsMcDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales > 0% — ~0.82HIT - McDonald's Q2 global comparable sales +1.3% (>0%), positive across all segments.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 6, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-69Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M).Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~early Aug 2026Resolved · Miss - P-130US July 2026 unemployment rateUS July 2026 unemployment rate ≤ 5.0% — ~0.90HIT - US July unemployment 4.1% (<=5.0%), below the 4.3% estimate.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 7, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-36Palantir Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $1.797B (guide floor)HIT - Palantir Q2 revenue $1.94bn, >=$1.797bn.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 10, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-70Circle USDC circulationCircle USDC in circulation at Q2'26 quarter-end ≥ $70BHIT - Circle USDC in circulation $73.3B at Q2 quarter-end (Jun 30), >=$70B.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 11, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-94Disney streaming FQ3 2026Disney DTC/streaming operating income positive in fiscal Q3 2026 — ~0.88HIT - Disney fiscal-Q3 streaming operating income +$712M (positive, more than doubled YoY).Locked 2026-06-24
Resolved Aug 12, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-126Home Depot FQ2 2026 compsHome Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales ≥ 0% — ~0.82HIT — locked comparable sales ≥0%; FQ2 2026 comparable sales printed +1.7% (US comps +1.3%) on sales of $47.9bn, reported 18 Aug 2026, guidance reaffirmed. Scored on TOTAL comparable sales, the locked metric — not the US-only figure and not the +5.7% total sales growth.Locked 2026-06-26
Resolved ~Aug 18, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-76Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)HIT — locked total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY; Q2 FY2027 total revenue rose 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), net sales +5% cc, reported 20 Aug 2026, full-year guidance raised. Honest note: Walmart MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales in the same quarter — we scored our locked metric (total net sales), not the quarter's overall reception.Locked 2026-06-23
Resolved ~Aug 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-139Alibaba Cloud June quarterAlibaba Cloud Intelligence external revenue grows ≥ 30% YoY — ~0.85HIT — locked Cloud external revenue growth ≥30% YoY; external revenue growth accelerated to 45% in the June 2026 quarter (segment revenue RMB48,437m / US$7,139m), reported 20 Aug 2026. DISCLOSURE: Alibaba renamed the segment from Cloud Intelligence Group to AI Cloud and Compute Services and folded in the T-Head chip arm, so the 45% is the successor segment's external growth. The call clears the 30% floor either way — pre-rename external growth was already 40% in the March quarter.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Aug 20, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-21Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-56Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-71Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)HIT, but the tightest in the series — locked Q2 FY2027 revenue at or above the $11.27bn guidance floor; Salesforce reported $11.35bn, up 11%, clearing by $80m or ~0.7%. Consensus was $11.32bn, so the floor held with very little room. Full-year guidance was raised to $46.1–$46.4bn. Reported 26 Aug 2026.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved ~Aug 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-147CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 revenueCrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 total revenue ≥$1.40bn (below guide low end) — ~0.94HIT — locked FQ2 FY2027 TOTAL revenue at or above $1.40bn; CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.47bn, up 26%, with ARR up 25% to $5.84bn, reported 26 Aug 2026. NOTE the metric trap this brief anticipated: SUBSCRIPTION revenue came in at exactly $1.40bn. The criterion explicitly named total revenue and excluded subscription revenue, so the call clears at $1.47bn; scoring the sibling would have landed precisely on the threshold.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Aug 26, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-22India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandMISS — locked the 6.3–7.3% band; MoSPI printed 7.8% YoY for Q1 FY27 on 31 Aug 2026 (real GDP Rs 81.36 lakh crore vs Rs 75.46 lakh crore). Above the band, so a miss under our own band rule even though the direction was right — the same failure as P-05. The band was set around the RBI's own 7% projection and the economy beat it: manufacturing 9.2%, real GVA +8.2%. We were not bearish, we were insufficiently bullish, and a band miss is a miss. We published it.Locked 2026-06-21
Resolved Aug 31, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-167Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.Locked 2026-08-13
Resolved Sep 1, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-137Bank of Canada September 2026BoC holds the overnight rate at 2.25% (no change) — ~0.95Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Sep 2, 2026Locked - P-77Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYLocked 2026-06-23
Resolves ~Sep 3, 2026Locked - P-140Lululemon Q2 FY2026Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue ≥ $2.4bn (vs ~$2.55bn est) — ~0.85Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Sep 4, 2026Locked - P-48Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote shareLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Sep 6, 2026Locked - P-179Inditex H1 FY2026 net salesInditex H1 FY2026 net sales ≥€17.0bn (€8.7bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Sep 9, 2026Locked - P-112ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Sep 10, 2026Locked - P-72Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Sep 2026Locked - P-136US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.82Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Sep 11, 2026Locked - P-49Canelo vs MbilliCanelo beats Mbilli (US ET card date) — calibrated ~0.72Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Sep 12, 2026Locked - P-23US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.70Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Sep 13, 2026Locked - P-50Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Sep 2026Locked - P-57Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Sep 2026Locked - P-144US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Sep 16, 2026Locked - P-159Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Sep 16, 2026Locked - P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Sep 17, 2026Locked - P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Sep 17, 2026Locked - P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Sep 18, 2026Locked - P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Sep 23, 2026Locked - P-142Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Sep 25, 2026Locked - P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Sep 28, 2026Locked - P-138RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.95Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Sep 29, 2026Locked - P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeLocked 2026-06-20
Resolves Sep 30, 2026Locked - P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Sep 30, 2026Locked - P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Sep 30, 2026Locked - P-141Accenture FQ4 FY26 revenueAccenture FQ4 FY26 revenue ≥ $17.75bn (low end of guide) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 1, 2026Locked - P-145Euro area September 2026 inflationEuro-area Sept 2026 flash HICP ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 1, 2026Locked - P-220Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUMBajaj Finance Q2 FY27 consolidated AUM ≥₹5.6 lakh crore (vs ₹5,46,944cr at Q1) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Oct 3, 2026Locked - P-59Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.88Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Oct 4, 2026Locked - P-162Mexico September 2026 inflationMexico Sept 2026 headline inflation ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.12% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 8, 2026Locked - P-189Tesco H1 2026/27 group salesTesco H1 2026/27 group sales ≥£32.5bn (£16.83bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 8, 2026Locked - P-263Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross marginEricsson Q3 2026 NETWORKS segment ADJUSTED gross margin >= 47.0% (guidance 48-50%; NOT group gross margin, 2pts lower in Q2) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Oct 14, 2026Locked - P-154Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 15, 2026Locked - P-221ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPIICICI Lombard Q2 FY27 GDPI ≥₹7,500cr (premium not profit; GDPI not GPW) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Oct 15, 2026Locked - P-240TSMC Q3 2026 revenueTSMC Q3 2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 43.0bn (guidance USD 44.6-45.8bn; correlated pair with P-235, disclosed) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Oct 15, 2026Locked - P-200SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves ~Oct 16, 2026Locked - P-325Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenueWipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenue >= US$2.50bn (guidance US$2.574-2.627bn, a ONE-QUARTER-AHEAD absolute dollar range; contrast P-319 HCLTech's full-year % guide) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 16, 2026Locked - P-89China Q3 2026 GDPChina official Q3 2026 GDP ≥4.5% YoY — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Oct 18, 2026Locked - P-155Canada September 2026 CPICanada Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY (vs 2.8% June) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 20, 2026Locked - P-165Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 20, 2026Locked - P-184L'Oreal Q3 2026 LfL growthL'Oreal Q3 2026 like-for-like sales growth ≥+2.0% (vs +6.8% in H1) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 20, 2026Locked - P-207Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 20, 2026Locked - P-213ABB Q3 2026 revenueABB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$9.0bn (vs $9.5bn in Q2; orders +28%) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 20, 2026Locked - P-317Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOMEAxis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOME >= INR 13,800 crore (Q1 NII INR 14,646cr; profit +22.5% was driven by provisions FALLING 43.7% while GNPA rose 1.23%→1.28%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 20, 2026Locked - P-146UK September 2026 CPIUK Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 21, 2026Locked - P-152BHP Q1 FY2027 iron oreBHP Q1 FY27 WAIO iron ore ≥58Mt BHP-share (~8% below guided pace) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 21, 2026Locked - P-166CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 21, 2026Locked - P-212Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 21, 2026Locked - P-160Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 22, 2026Locked - P-161Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 22, 2026Locked - P-170GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 22, 2026Locked - P-214Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 22, 2026Locked - P-288Atlas Copco Q3 2026 revenuesAtlas Copco Q3 2026 REVENUES >= SEK 42.0bn (LEVEL-anchored off Q2 SEK 44,974m — the company publishes no numeric guidance) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Oct 22, 2026Locked - P-305UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volumesUltraTech Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED sales volumes >= 36.0 Mt (Q1 41.31 Mt; domestic 39.2 Mt is 2.1 Mt lower and EXCLUDED; Q2 is the monsoon quarter) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 22, 2026Locked - P-334Havells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUEHavells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS >= INR 5,600 crore (Q1 INR 6,518cr but Q1 is the SUMMER COOLING PEAK — 14% buffer; PAT fell 16.64% on doubled A&P spend) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 22, 2026Locked - P-215Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 23, 2026Locked - P-216IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenueIndiGo Q2 FY27 revenue from operations ≥₹19,000cr (seasonal trough; revenue not profit) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 23, 2026Locked - P-289ASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 operating marginASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 OPERATING MARGIN >= 16.0% (LEVEL-anchored off a record Q2 17.0%; margin locked because the sales line has four components) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Oct 23, 2026Locked - P-304Hindustan Unilever Q2 FY2027 EBITDA marginHUL Q2 FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 22.0% (guided 22.5-23.5%; revenue AND the DIRECTION of profit conflict across sources, margin does not) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 23, 2026Locked - P-329Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUENestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE >= INR 5,900 crore (Q1 INR 6,378.18cr; +25.16% was the fastest in FORTY quarters — so we lock the LEVEL, not the rate; profit reported as both INR 958.68cr and INR 975cr) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 23, 2026Locked - P-222SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APESBI Life Q2 FY27 APE ≥₹4,800cr (quarter alone; APE not GWP or VoNB) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Oct 24, 2026Locked - P-232Dr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 revenue from operationsDr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 7,400 crore (LEVEL locked — sources conflict on the YoY rate) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Oct 24, 2026Locked - P-150Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 27, 2026Locked - P-158Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 27, 2026Locked - P-171WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 27, 2026Locked - P-188First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 27, 2026Locked - P-209Reckitt FY2026 Core LFL floorReckitt keeps FY2026 Core LFL guidance floor ≥4% at Q3 (Core, not group LFL) — ~0.88Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 27, 2026Locked - P-219HSBC 9M 2026 revenueHSBC 9M 2026 constant-currency revenue ex-notables ≥$54bn ($38.2bn booked in H1) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Oct 27, 2026Locked - P-256POSCO Q3 2026 crude steel productionPOSCO Q3 2026 CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION >= 8.4 Mt (Q2 8,884kt at 89.5% util; NOT product sales volume, 527kt lower) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Oct 27, 2026Locked - P-148UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 28, 2026Locked - P-156Australia Sept-quarter 2026 CPIAustralia Sept-qtr 2026 headline CPI ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.8% June qtr) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 28, 2026Locked - P-191PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 28, 2026Locked - P-239Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Oct 28, 2026Locked - P-78Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-23
Resolves ~Oct 29, 2026Locked - P-173S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 29, 2026Locked - P-174Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 29, 2026Locked - P-190Universal Music Q3 2026 revenueUniversal Music Q3 2026 total revenue ≥€3.0bn (vs €3.294bn in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 29, 2026Locked - P-192Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Oct 29, 2026Locked - P-105Copper end-October 2026LME copper closes end-Oct 2026 ≥ $9,000/t — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-231Holcim nine-month 2026 net salesHolcim 9M 2026 group NET SALES ≥ CHF 11.5bn (H1 CHF 7.9bn; FY guidance upgraded) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-298Maruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 sales volumesMaruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 TOTAL SALES VOLUMES >= 620,000 units (Q1 682,724; rupee revenue AND profit both conflict across sources so VOLUMES are locked) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-314Samsung DS Division Q3 2026 operating profitSamsung DS Division Q3 2026 operating profit >= KRW 60tn (Q2 DS KRW 89.2tn of a GROUP KRW 89.5tn — the mobile unit LOST KRW 0.7tn; calibration correction to P-106) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-73BitMine ETH treasuryBitMine disclosed ETH holdings ≥ 6,000,000 by Oct 31 — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Oct 31, 2026Locked - P-210AIA Q3 2026 year-to-date VONBAIA year-to-date VONB ≥US$4.4bn at Q3 2026 (VONB, not annualised new premium) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Oct 31, 2026Locked - P-163South Korea October 2026 exportsSouth Korea Oct 2026 exports ≥US$70bn (level, not the base-effect growth rate) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 1, 2026Locked - P-172India October 2026 GSTIndia Oct 2026 gross GST ≥₹1.90 lakh crore (gross, not net of refunds) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 1, 2026Locked - P-223Muthoot Q2 FY2027 loan AUMMuthoot Q2 FY27 consolidated TOTAL loan AUM ≥₹1.95 lakh crore (not gold-only, not standalone) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 1, 2026Locked - P-60ARC Prize 2026 Grand Prize2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize unclaimed (ARC-AGI-2) — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Nov 2026Locked - P-194Indonesia October 2026 CPIIndonesia Oct 2026 headline annual CPI ≤4.0% (vs 2.88% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 2, 2026Locked - P-24US 2026 midterms — SenateRepublicans retain the Senate — calibrated ~0.54Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-44US House 2026 — DemocratsDemocrats win US House majority (≥218) — calibrated ~0.76Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Nov 2026Locked - P-169Marriott Q3 2026 RevPARMarriott Q3 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth ≥+1.0% (vs +3.4% in Q2) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-180Ryanair H1 FY2027 trafficRyanair H1 FY27 traffic ≥110M passengers (guided metric; profit guidance withdrawn) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-183Turkey October 2026 CPITürkiye Oct 2026 official annual CPI ≤40% (vs 31.75% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-196Switzerland October 2026 CPISwitzerland Oct 2026 headline annual CPI ≤1.5% (vs 0.4% July) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves ~Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-149Constellation FY2026 guidance floorConstellation keeps FY2026 adj operating EPS floor ≥$11.50 at Q3 — ~0.88Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 4, 2026Locked - P-330Saudi Aramco Q3 2026 BASE DIVIDENDSaudi Aramco Q3 2026 BASE DIVIDEND >= SAR 75bn (Q2 base dividend SAR 82.1bn; adj net income rose 33% on the Iran war — we do NOT lock earnings, that is an oil price bet) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 4, 2026Locked - P-164Maersk Q3 2026 underlying EBITDAMaersk Q3 2026 underlying EBITDA ≥US$2.2bn (~27% below Q2) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-175Trade Desk Q3 2026 revenueTrade Desk Q3 2026 revenue ≥$600M (below its own slashed ~$650M guide) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-177MercadoLibre Q3 2026 revenueMercadoLibre Q3 2026 net revenues ≥$9.5bn (vs $10.17bn in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-187Munich Re 9M 2026 net resultMunich Re 9M 2026 group net result ≥€4.8bn (€3.9bn already earned in H1) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-296Bharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 revenueBharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= Rs 55,000 crore (Q1 Rs 58,539cr; EBITDA vs EBITDAaL differ ~Rs 3,800cr so revenue is locked) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-310SBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profitSBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profit >= INR 19,000 crore (Q1 standalone INR 21,121cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 24,113cr — both reported as net profit) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 5, 2026Locked - P-178Rheinmetall 9M 2026 salesRheinmetall 9M 2026 consolidated sales ≥€8.0bn (€5.23bn already booked in H1) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 6, 2026Locked - P-233Max Healthcare Q2 FY2027 network gross revenueMax Healthcare Q2 FY2027 NETWORK GROSS REVENUE ≥ Rs 2,850 crore (network line, NOT the consolidated line ~Rs 600cr lower) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Nov 6, 2026Locked - P-302Titan Q2 FY2027 consolidated total incomeTitan Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED TOTAL INCOME >= Rs 18,000 crore (Q1 Rs 20,753cr on Akshaya Tritiya; jewellery segment Rs 18,253cr sits beside the threshold and is EXCLUDED) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 6, 2026Locked - P-327Hero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDAHero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDA >= INR 1,450 crore (Q1 EBITDA INR 1,727cr; profit reported BOTH down 17% and up 29%; the 14-16% margin band is MEDIUM-TERM, not FY27 guidance) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 6, 2026Locked - P-168China October 2026 exportsChina Oct 2026 exports ≥US$300bn (level in USD, not the growth rate) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 7, 2026Locked - P-224China October 2026 PPIChina Oct 2026 PPI remains below 0% YoY (deflation persists; anti-thesis half) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 9, 2026Locked - P-227China October 2026 CPIChina Oct 2026 headline CPI ≤2.0% YoY (vs 0.5% July) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 9, 2026Locked - P-335Power Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profitPower Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profit >= INR 3,200 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 3,598cr vs standalone INR 3,411cr; income ROSE while profit FELL 0.9%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 9, 2026Locked - P-176Brazil October 2026 IPCABrazil Oct 2026 12-month IPCA ≤5.5% (vs 4.44% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 10, 2026Locked - P-318NTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PATNTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PAT >= INR 4,800 crore (Q1 standalone INR 5,342cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 6,896cr; the 9,557 MW FY27 capacity target could not be pinned to a basis) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 10, 2026Locked - P-186Vestas FY2026 margin floorVestas keeps FY2026 EBIT margin floor ≥7% at Q3 (raised from 6-8%) — ~0.88Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 11, 2026Locked - P-292Mainfreight H1 FY2027 revenueMainfreight H1 FY2027 group REVENUE >= NZ$2.60bn as reported (LEVEL-anchored — no numeric guidance; FY26 was NZ$5.38bn) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 11, 2026Locked - P-326Tata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDATata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 6,000 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 9,370cr but India STANDALONE INR 9,409cr — standalone HIGHER; Netherlands EUR 4m on EUR 1.4bn; war cost INR 1,200cr) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 11, 2026Locked - P-185Deutsche Telekom Q3 2026 EBITDAaLDeutsche Telekom Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAaL ≥€11.2bn (vs €11.8bn in Q2) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-208Cisco Q1 FY2027 revenueCisco Q1 FY2027 total revenue ≥$17.5bn (guide $18.0-18.2bn) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-211Hon Hai Q3 2026 revenueHon Hai Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥NT$2.4tn (floor BELOW Q2, in a quarter guided to grow) — ~0.94Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-249Siemens FY2026 EPS pre-PPASiemens FY2026 basic EPS PRE-PPA >= EUR 10.70 (the floor held BEFORE the raise to EUR 11.20-11.50; FY ends 30 Sep 2026) — ~0.94Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-311Jaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenueJaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenue >= GBP 5.0bn (Q1 GBP 6.0bn, wholesales -10%, disclosed supply disruption; Tata Motors Q1 PAT reported as BOTH INR 775cr and INR 900cr) — ~0.89Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Nov 12, 2026Locked - P-234Samvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenueSamvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 33,000 crore (Q1 record Rs 35,243.8cr) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Nov 13, 2026Locked - P-341Apollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenueApollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue >= INR 6,500 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 7,043cr vs Healthcare Services INR 3,567cr; PAT growth reported as BOTH +34% and +38.4%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~Nov 13, 2026Locked - P-342Novelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDANovelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= US$400m (Q1 US$516m; parent Hindalco group EBITDA INR 14,989cr +73% on record aluminium margins was DECLINED as an LME bet; EBITDA growth reported as both +24% and +37%) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~Nov 13, 2026Locked - P-281Richemont H1 FY2027 salesRichemont H1 FY2027 group SALES >= EUR 11.5bn at actual rates (Q1 alone EUR 6.3bn; LEVEL-anchored — Richemont publishes no guidance) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Nov 14, 2026Locked - P-226China October 2026 M2 growthChina Oct 2026 M2 growth ≥7.0% YoY (rate not level - levels conflicted) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 15, 2026Locked - P-228China October 2026 total social financingChina Oct 2026 TSF STOCK growth ≥7.0% YoY (stock not flow) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 15, 2026Locked - P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Nov 16, 2026Locked - P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.87Locked 2026-08-27
Resolves ~Nov 17, 2026Locked - P-25GTA VI release dateGTA VI ships Nov 19 2026, no further delay — ~0.72Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Nov 19, 2026Locked - P-195Japan October 2026 core CPIJapan Oct 2026 core CPI ex-fresh-food ≤3.0% YoY (vs 1.8% July) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves ~Nov 20, 2026Locked - P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves ~Nov 25, 2026Locked - P-238Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE >= USD 4.5bn (the guidance floor held BEFORE August's raise to USD 4.75bn) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Nov 25, 2026Locked - P-241Fisher & Paykel Healthcare H1 FY2027 operating revenueF&P Healthcare H1 FY2027 OPERATING REVENUE >= NZ$1.18bn (guides ~NZ$1.24bn; reported NZD, no FX restatement) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Nov 25, 2026Locked - P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.72Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Nov 30, 2026Locked - P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Locked - P-157European TTF gas 1 Dec 2026TTF front-month gas settles ≤€100/MWh on 1 Dec 2026 — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Locked - P-182Uranium spot 1 Dec 2026Uranium spot ≤US$130/lb U3O8 on 1 Dec 2026 (spot, not long-term contract) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Locked - P-199Arabica coffee 1 Dec 2026ICE Arabica Coffee C settles ≤500c/lb on 1 Dec 2026 (~16% above the 52-week high) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Locked - P-20F1 2026 Drivers' title (rest-of-season simulation)Antonelli ~70% champion — 40k-run Monte-Carlo (model 81% / market 61%, disclosed)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Dec 2026Locked - P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260MLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Dec 21, 2026Locked - P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Dec 21, 2026Locked - P-203Nikkei 225 year-end 2026Nikkei 225 closes 2026 inside 50,000-82,000 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves ~Dec 30, 2026Locked - P-204DAX year-end 2026DAX closes 2026 inside 21,000-32,000 (band; correlated with P-198, disclosed) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves ~Dec 30, 2026Locked - P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-endLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-28Strategy (MSTR) 1M-BTC targetMSTR holds < 1,000,000 BTC at year-end — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-29Bitcoin year-end 2026BTC CME BRR settles < $90,000 on Dec 31 — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.84Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.97Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-53Metaplanet 100k-BTC targetMetaplanet holds < 100,000 BTC at year-end — calibrated ~0.88Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-61Stablecoin market capTotal stablecoin market cap > $340B at year-end — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-62USDT #1 stablecoinUSDT is the #1 stablecoin by market cap at year-end — ~0.98Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-63No private-fusion Q>1 in 2026No verified private-fusion scientific Q>1 in 2026 — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 2026Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.97Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-83Gold year-end 2026Gold closes 2026 ≥ $3,500/oz (structural floor) — ~0.95Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-102Nifty 50 year-end 2026India Nifty 50 closes 2026 ≥ 22,000 (vs ~24,022 spot) — ~0.80Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-111FIDE World Chess Championship 2026FIDE WCC 2026 match begins by Dec 31, 2026 — ~0.80Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-151USD/JPY year-end 2026USD/JPY closes 2026 inside 140–180 (band, direction not predicted) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-193Japan 10-year JGB year-end 2026Japan 10-year JGB yield closes 2026 ≤4.00% (vs 2.86% in mid-Aug; locked against the uptrend) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-13
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-197Silver year-end 2026Silver spot ≥US$38/oz at final 2026 close (floor sized to the 2011 -47% precedent) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-198German 10-year Bund year-end 2026German 10-year Bund yield closes 2026 ≤4.50% (vs 3.27%, a 15-year high; locked against trend) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.93Locked 2026-08-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-109LA Rams 2026 NFL playoffsLA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 4, 2027Locked - P-85Brent 2026 annual average2026 Brent calendar-year average ≥ $85/bbl (EIA) — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-86Henry Hub 2026 annual average2026 Henry Hub calendar-year average ≤ $4.25/MMBtu (EIA) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.94Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-259Canadian National FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS growthCN FY2026 ADJUSTED DILUTED EPS growth >= 3.0% (guidance raised to mid-to-high single digits; 3 EPS measures exist — adjusted diluted is the guided one) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 26, 2027Locked - P-235ASML FY2026 total net salesASML FY2026 TOTAL NET SALES >= EUR 40bn (the TOP of the OLD guidance range, not the floor of the raised EUR 43-45bn) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Jan 27, 2027Locked - P-253SAP FY2026 cloud revenueSAP FY2026 CLOUD REVENUE at CONSTANT CURRENCIES >= EUR 25.0bn (guidance EUR 25.8-26.2bn cc; backlog EUR 22.9bn) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 27, 2027Locked - P-236LVMH FY2026 revenueLVMH FY2026 reported group REVENUE >= EUR 76bn (seasonality-anchored; LVMH issues no revenue guidance) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Jan 28, 2027Locked - P-258Roche FY2026 sales growthRoche FY2026 GROUP sales growth >= 3% AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATES (H1 +6% CER vs -2% CHF — opposite signs; level conflict so the RATE is locked) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 28, 2027Locked - P-271KONE FY2026 adjusted EBIT marginKONE FY2026 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 11.8% (guidance 12.3-13% unchanged; threshold = the margin H1 already delivered) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 28, 2027Locked - P-265Teva FY2026 revenueTeva FY2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 16.0bn (guidance raised to USD 16.5-16.8bn; total revenue, NOT the separately-guided product lines) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Jan 29, 2027Locked - P-79UnitedHealth FY2026 adjusted EPSFY2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $18.25 (guide floor) — calibrated ~0.82Locked 2026-06-23
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-872026 top-3 warmest year2026 ranks top-3 warmest year on record (Copernicus C3S) — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-99Toyota best-selling automaker 2026Toyota = world's best-selling automaker for calendar 2026 — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-218Diageo H1 FY2027 organic net salesDiageo H1 FY27 organic net sales growth ≥−5% (decline-bounded floor; organic not reported) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-267Ferrari FY2026 adjusted EBITDAFerrari FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= EUR 2.90bn (guidance raised to >=EUR 2.97bn; 4 metrics guided, this names one) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 2, 2027Locked - P-230Glencore FY2026 own-sourced copper productionGlencore FY2026 own-sourced copper ≥ 790kt (guidance basis 840kt; tonnes locked, price NOT forecast) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Feb 3, 2027Locked - P-255Santander FY2026 total revenueSantander FY2026 TOTAL REVENUE >= EUR 60.0bn (H1 EUR 30.85bn; revenue locked NOT profit — H1 profit carries a one-off) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 3, 2027Locked - P-261Equinor FY2026 oil and gas production growthEquinor FY2026 OIL AND GAS production growth >= 1.5% (guidance 3%, H1 delivered 6%; NOT renewable power, +11% in Q2) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 4, 2027Locked - P-264Vinci FY2026 free cash flowVinci FY2026 FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 5.4bn (guidance ~EUR 6bn; 10% buffer widened for construction cash-timing swings) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 4, 2027Locked - P-276DSV FY2026 EBIT before special itemsDSV FY2026 EBIT BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= DKK 22.5bn (guidance narrowed UP to DKK 23.5-25.5bn; forwarder, opposite freight exposure to P-237 Maersk) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 4, 2027Locked - P-283Givaudan FY2026 like-for-like sales growthGivaudan FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.0% (H1 +3.6% LFL vs -1.7% reported CHF — opposite signs; the 4-6% target is a 2026-2030 AVERAGE, not FY26 guidance) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 4, 2027Locked - P-237Maersk FY2026 underlying EBITDAMaersk FY2026 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= USD 10.0bn (guidance raised to USD 10.5-12.5bn; underlying NOT reported EBITDA) — ~0.89Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Feb 5, 2027Locked - P-282UniCredit FY2026 net profitUniCredit FY2026 REPORTED net profit >= EUR 10.5bn incl. integration costs (guidance raised 3x to well above EUR 11bn) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 9, 2027Locked - P-254Heineken FY2026 organic operating profit growthHeineken FY2026 ORGANIC operating profit growth >= 1.5% (reiterated 2-6% guide; H1 was 6.7%, above its own top) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 10, 2027Locked - P-260DBS FY2026 total incomeDBS FY2026 GROUP TOTAL INCOME > FY2025 (relative comparison — the 2025 base could not be independently verified, so no threshold was invented) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 10, 2027Locked - P-251ArcelorMittal FY2026 iron ore shipmentsArcelorMittal FY2026 IRON ORE shipments >= 17.0 Mt (guidance maintained 18 Mt; mining leg, explicitly NOT a steel call) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 11, 2027Locked - P-252Unilever FY2026 underlying sales growthUnilever FY2026 UNDERLYING sales growth >= 3.5% (guided within 4-6%; H1 4.8% with 4.2pts volume) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 11, 2027Locked - P-266Adyen FY2026 net revenue growthAdyen FY2026 NET REVENUE growth >= 18% AT CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 21-23% cc; H1 +19% reported vs +21% cc) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 11, 2027Locked - P-278RELX FY2026 profit growth vs revenue growthRELX FY2026 UNDERLYING adjusted operating profit growth EXCEEDS underlying revenue growth (relative lock — RELX guided a relationship, not a number) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 11, 2027Locked - P-303Enbridge FY2026 adjusted EBITDAEnbridge FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= C$19.6bn (guidance C$20.2-20.8bn reaffirmed; C$41bn secured backlog; tolls on volume not the oil price) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Feb 12, 2027Locked - P-30Hyperscaler 2026 capexMSFT+GOOGL+AMZN+META CY2026 capex ≥ $600B — ~0.95Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-31OpenAI revenue run-rateAnnualized run-rate ≥ $30B at end-2026 — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-64DraftKings FY2026 revenueFY2026 revenue inside $6.5–6.9B guidance band — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-262América Móvil FY2026 capital expenditureAmérica Móvil FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 6.3bn (guidance ~USD 7bn; capex locked because Q2 EBITDA growth was published 3 ways) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 16, 2027Locked - P-268Carrefour FY2026 net free cash flowCarrefour FY2026 GROUP NET FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 1,450m (floor set BELOW the 2025 base of EUR 1,565m — H1 was NEGATIVE EUR 1.99bn) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 17, 2027Locked - P-269Woodside FY2026 productionWoodside FY2026 group PRODUCTION >= 170 MMboe (guidance 174-185 reaffirmed; H1 86.5; a source discrepancy is disclosed and non-decisive) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 17, 2027Locked - P-248Nestlé FY2026 organic sales growthNestlé FY2026 ORGANIC sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance 3-4%; organic = RIG + pricing, NOT reported sales) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 18, 2027Locked - P-277Schneider Electric FY2026 organic revenue growthSchneider Electric FY2026 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 8.5% (guidance raised to 10-13% from 7-10%; threshold sits between the two floors) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 18, 2027Locked - P-280Zurich Insurance FY2026 business operating profitZurich FY2026 GROUP business operating profit >= USD 9.0bn (record H1 USD 4.8bn; FY2025 USD 8.9bn; buffer sized for hurricane season) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 18, 2027Locked - P-322Vale 2026 iron ore PRODUCTIONVale calendar-2026 iron ore PRODUCTION >= 320 Mt (guidance 335-345 Mt maintained with 2 quarters banked; NOT sales, NOT pellets; cost guidance RAISED to US$58-62/t) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Feb 18, 2027Locked - P-274Safran FY2026 recurring operating incomeSafran FY2026 RECURRING OPERATING INCOME >= EUR 6.2bn (guidance raised to ~EUR 6.5bn; H1 EUR 3,237m +29%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 19, 2027Locked - P-279Iberdrola FY2026 adjusted net profit growthIberdrola FY2026 ADJUSTED net profit growth >= 5% (guidance comfortably above 8%; H1 reported +22% vs adjusted +8% — widest gap locked against) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 24, 2027Locked - P-285Danone FY2026 like-for-like sales growthDanone FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance +3-5% confirmed; H1 3.5%, Q2 4.2%; growth split 1.7% volume / 1.8% price) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 24, 2027Locked - P-345CP All 7-Eleven THAILAND store count at 31 Dec 2026CP All 7-ELEVEN THAILAND net store count at 31 Dec 2026 >= 16,500 (16,284 at 30 Jun 2026 from 15,945 at end-2025; ~700 openings targeted — locked at a 40% shortfall to plan) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~Feb 24, 2027Locked - P-217AXA FY2026 underlying EPS growthAXA FY2026 underlying EPS growth ≥6% (reported outcome, not guidance restatement) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-26
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-250Petrobras FY2026 oil productionPetrobras FY2026 average OIL production >= 2.45 million bpd (NOT oil-and-gas on a boe basis; Q2 record 2.7 mmbpd) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-272Bank Central Asia FY2026 net profitBCA FY2026 CONSOLIDATED NET PROFIT >= IDR 56tn (H1 IDR 29.5tn; loan-book sources conflict IDR 1,036 vs 1,082tn so profit is locked) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-273LSEG FY2026 organic revenue growthLSEG FY2026 TOTAL ORGANIC revenue growth >= 6.0% at CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 7.0-7.5%; NOT subscription growth, guided ~6.5%, which straddles this floor) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-293Summerset FY2026 group home deliveriesSummerset FY2026 GROUP home deliveries >= 650 incl. Australia (guidance 700-800; NZ-only guidance CUT by 50 to 600-650 — the criterion names GROUP) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Feb 25, 2027Locked - P-270BASF FY2026 EBITDA before special itemsBASF FY2026 EBITDA BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= EUR 6.6bn (guidance raised to EUR 6.9-7.7bn; prior-guidance anchor consciously OVERRIDDEN, see brief) — ~0.94Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 26, 2027Locked - P-284Amadeus FY2026 revenueAmadeus FY2026 group REVENUE >= EUR 6.4bn (LEVEL-anchored off banked H1 EUR 3,334.9m; the trimmed outlook range could not be verified and is NOT the anchor) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 26, 2027Locked - P-286Veolia FY2026 organic EBITDA growthVeolia FY2026 ORGANIC EBITDA growth >= 4.0% (guidance MAINTAINED 5-6% while net income guidance was RAISED to >=8% — we anchored on the one that held) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Feb 26, 2027Locked - P-32TKO Group FY2026 revenueFY2026 total revenue ≥ $5.60B (floor) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-257Saudi Aramco FY2026 capital expenditureSaudi Aramco FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 48bn (guidance unchanged USD 50-55bn; H1 USD 25.1bn) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Mar 9, 2027Locked - P-275adidas FY2026 operating profitadidas FY2026 OPERATING PROFIT >= EUR 2.10bn (guidance ~EUR 2.3bn; ~9% buffer for EUR 212m committed World Cup marketing) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Mar 10, 2027Locked - P-291Bayer FY2026 salesBayer FY2026 SALES >= EUR 43.0bn CURRENCY-ADJUSTED (guidance EUR 44.7-47bn affirmed; H1 loads the year on planting seasons) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~Mar 10, 2027Locked - P-338Standard Bank Group 2026 HEADLINE EARNINGSStandard Bank Group calendar-2026 HEADLINE EARNINGS >= R48bn (H1 record R26.1bn, ROE 19.8%; headline earnings is a JSE-DEFINED measure, NOT IFRS profit; 2028 targets excluded) — ~0.93Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Mar 11, 2027Locked - P-229Enel FY2026 ordinary EBITDAEnel FY2026 ORDINARY EBITDA ≥ EUR 22.5bn (guidance EUR 23.1-23.6bn; H1 EUR 11.8bn) — ~0.92Locked 2026-08-29
Resolves ~Mar 18, 2027Locked - P-337JSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel productionJSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel production >= 25.0 Mt (guidance ~28-29 Mt but Q1 annualises to 26.4 Mt — locked BELOW the run rate; correlated with P-326, disclosed) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Apr 8, 2027Locked - P-319HCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growthHCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growth >= 0.5% (guidance 1-4% RETAINED; Q1 was +2.6% YoY and −0.5% QoQ in cc, +3.0% and −0.9% in USD) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Apr 22, 2027Locked - P-344Ambuja Cements capacity at end-FY2027Ambuja Cements CEMENT CAPACITY at end-FY2027 >= 115 MTPA (109 MTPA today, 119 MTPA targeted, trial production commenced; Q1 volume FELL 14% so the 8% volume guidance was declined per the P-328 reasoning) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~May 3, 2027Locked - P-336Marico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUEMarico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= INR 14,000 crore (stated goal to cross INR 15,000cr; Q1 INR 3,957cr; domestic volume +11% was a 20-quarter high so we lock the LEVEL) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 4, 2027Locked - P-312Adani Ports FY2027 EBITDAAdani Ports FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 23,000 crore (guidance INR 25,000-26,000cr maintained with H1 reassessment flagged; Q1 +19% but domestic volume +2%) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 5, 2027Locked - P-333Trent total store count at 31 Mar 2027Trent NET total store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 1,350 (1,312 at 30 Jun 2026; +20 net in Q1 while DMart added 3; profit growth reported as 22%, 23.5% AND 26%) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 6, 2027Locked - P-320Avenue Supermarts store count at 31 Mar 2027Avenue Supermarts NET DMart store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 515 (503 at 30 Jun 2026; only 3 added in Q1, fewest in 12 quarters; closures count against it) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 8, 2027Locked - P-309Asian Paints FY2027 decorative volume growthAsian Paints FY2027 DECORATIVE VOLUME growth >= 5.0% (guidance 8-10% maintained; Q1 volume 9.0% vs VALUE 16.6% — NOT value, NOT revenue) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 10, 2027Locked - P-297Larsen & Toubro FY2027 revenue growthL&T FY2027 GROUP revenue growth >= 7% (guidance 10-12% MAINTAINED but Q1 delivered 7% — threshold set at the delivered rate, not the guided one) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 11, 2027Locked - P-340Indian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growthIndian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 7.0% (double-digit guidance reaffirmed; Q1 +15%, a 17th straight record; SEASONALITY INVERTED — Apr-Jun is the WEAKEST quarter) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~May 11, 2027Locked - P-287Alstom FY2026/27 adjusted EBIT marginAlstom FY2026/27 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 6.0% (guidance ~6.5% confirmed; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027; EUR 102.8bn backlog) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~May 12, 2027Locked - P-299Toyota FY2027 operating incomeToyota FY2027 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 3.1tn (forecast RAISED JPY 400bn to 3.4tn on FX while Q1 operating income FELL — threshold between old and new) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 12, 2027Locked - P-321Britannia FY2027 EBITDA marginBritannia FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 15.0% (Q1 16.81% vs 16.38%; Q1 revenue reported as BOTH INR 5,000cr/+8.17% and INR 4,964cr/+9.5%, irreconcilable) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 12, 2027Locked - P-247Sony FY2026 operating incomeSony FY2026 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 1,600bn (guidance raised to JPY 1,720bn; Q1 carried ~JPY 80bn one-off tariff refunds) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~May 14, 2027Locked - P-328Cipla FY2027 EBITDA marginCipla FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 16.0% (guidance 18.5-20% MAINTAINED while Q1 printed 16.7%, down 881bp YoY from 25.56%; locked BELOW guidance deliberately) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 14, 2027Locked - P-290Experian FY2027 organic revenue growthExperian FY2027 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 5.0% (guidance 6-8% maintained; Q1 was +10% actual / +8% cc / +7% organic; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-02
Resolves ~May 19, 2027Locked - P-242Infratil FY2027 proportionate operational EBITDAFInfratil FY2027 PROPORTIONATE OPERATIONAL EBITDAF excl. corporate costs >= NZ$1,250m (guidance NZ$1,300-1,400m) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~May 20, 2027Locked - P-313Sun Pharma FY2027 consolidated revenue growthSun Pharma FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 5.0% YoY in INR (guidance is the PHRASE 'high single digits', not a number; Q1 +10.46%) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 20, 2027Locked - P-301Ryman Healthcare FY2027 build deliveryRyman FY2027 BUILD DELIVERY >= 150 units and beds (guidance 157-168; locked on countable output because FY26 was a NZ$171.3m loss driven by revaluations) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 21, 2027Locked - P-331Turners Automotive FY2027 NORMALISED NPBTTurners Automotive FY2027 NORMALISED NPBT >= NZ$58m (NZ$65m target pulled forward from FY2028 into FY2027 and HELD; FY26 record NZ$63.2m) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~May 24, 2027Locked - P-343ONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil productionONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil production >= 17.0 MMT (Q1 4.452 MMT; profit +112% to INR 17,034cr purely on realisation US$66.13→US$99.45/bbl with volumes FLAT — earnings declined as a price call) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~May 27, 2027Locked - P-244Contact Energy FY2027 EBITDAFContact Energy FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (FY26 EBITDAF NZ$1,011m; floor set robust to the EBITDAF vs 'normalised EBITDA' label mismatch) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Aug 16, 2027Locked - P-339Heartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPATHeartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPAT >= NZ$92m (guidance is a FLOOR — 'at least NZ$102m' — EXCLUDING TSB transaction costs; FY26 underlying NZ$90.4m vs REPORTED NZ$93.2m) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-04
Resolves ~Aug 17, 2027Locked - P-246Spark New Zealand FY2027 adjusted EBITDAISpark NZ FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAI >= NZ$980m (guidance NZ$1,010-1,080m; guidance credibility explicitly discounted) — ~0.89Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Aug 18, 2027Locked - P-306Fletcher Building FY2027 EBIT ex-propertyFletcher FY2027 EBIT before significant items EXCLUDING property sales >= NZ$300m (FY26 NZ$362m ex-property vs NZ$414m incl; management WARNED on 1H FY27) — ~0.88Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 18, 2027Locked - P-243Auckland Airport FY2027 underlying profit after taxAuckland Airport FY2027 UNDERLYING PROFIT AFTER TAX >= NZ$280m (guidance NZ$290-330m; underlying not statutory) — ~0.90Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Aug 19, 2027Locked - P-294EBOS Group FY2027 underlying EBITDAEBOS FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= A$610m in AUSTRALIAN dollars (guidance A$635-655m; NZ-domiciled but guides in AUD) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 19, 2027Locked - P-332Vulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAVulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$120m (FY26 NZ$130m; FY27 gets TWELVE months of Roofing Industries vs nine; NZ$130m EBITDA became NZ$18m NPAT) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 19, 2027Locked - P-316Vector FY2027 adjusted EBITDAVector FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$500m (guidance NZ$540-560m; FY26 NZ$482m on the ComCom price reset; chosen as the UNCORRELATED counterweight to P-244/P-300/P-308) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 20, 2027Locked - P-323SkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDASkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= NZ$150m (FY26 underlying NZ$181.6m vs REPORTED NZ$120.5m, NZ$61m apart; NO FY27 guidance; NZ$30m cost-out targeted) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 20, 2027Locked - P-245a2 Milk FY2027 revenuea2 Milk FY2027 total REVENUE >= NZ$2,000m (DERIVED: mid-single-digit guided growth applied to the FY2026 base of NZ$1,974.9m; a rate was guided, not a level) — ~0.91Locked 2026-08-30
Resolves ~Aug 23, 2027Locked - P-295Chorus FY2027 EBITDAChorus FY2027 EBITDA >= NZ$715m (guidance NZ$730-760m; the regulated fibre network under Spark at P-246) — ~0.92Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 23, 2027Locked - P-315Freightways FY2027 EBITAFreightways FY2027 EBITA >= NZ$160m (NO numeric FY27 guidance; management said 'softer for longer'; FY26 EBITA NZ$181.6m) — ~0.90Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 23, 2027Locked - P-324Skellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPATSkellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPAT >= NZ$58m (FY26 NZ$64.2m, a TENTH straight record; net debt <NZ$2m; management sees 'no early signs of slowdown') — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 24, 2027Locked - P-300Meridian Energy FY2027 EBITDAFMeridian FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$950m (guidance NZ$1,040-1,120m assuming NORMAL hydrology; FY26 NZ$1,051m vs FY25 NZ$611m drought — buffer 8.7% for rainfall) — ~0.89Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 25, 2027Locked - P-307Port of Tauranga FY2027 underlying earningsPort of Tauranga FY2027 UNDERLYING earnings >= NZ$145m (guidance NZ$160-175m; FY26 record NZ$155.3m; Air NZ scouted and DROPPED for withdrawing FY27 guidance) — ~0.91Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 25, 2027Locked - P-308Mercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAFMercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (guidance is a POINT of NZ$1,075m conditioned on 4.1TWh hydro; FY26 NZ$1,068m; correlated with P-244 and P-300) — ~0.89Locked 2026-09-03
Resolves ~Aug 25, 2027Locked