Prediction Series · Track Record
Every forecast, locked and scored.
The RAOSCAFF Prediction Series is a run of timestamped, falsifiable public forecasts. Each is locked in writing before the event — the commit timestamp is the cryptographic lock — and scored honestly against its literal criterion when it resolves.
135
Forecasts locked
133
Awaiting event
0
Scoring
2
Resolved + scored
Locked confident. Resolved honest.We score every forecast against the exact criterion we locked — not a directional vibe — and we publish the result even when we miss. P-02 is on this board as a recorded miss for exactly that reason: a forecast you can’t check isn’t intelligence.
- P-01US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).Locked 2026-05-26
Resolved Jun 10, 2026Resolved · Hit - P-02US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.Locked 2026-05-26
Resolved Jun 17, 2026Resolved · Miss - P-65Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Jun 24, 2026Locked - P-09BYD Q2 NEV sales> 950k units (Apr+May already public = 704.6k)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves ~Jul 1, 2026Locked - P-05Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves ~Jul 2, 2026Locked - P-66Australia Women — T20 WC finalAustralia Women reach the ICC Women's T20 WC 2026 final — ~0.72Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jun 30 / Jul 2, 2026Locked - P-13F1 — Antonelli's title leadStill standings leader after the British GPLocked 2026-06-20
Resolves Jul 5, 2026Locked - P-80OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jul 6, 2026Locked - P-112026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationLocked 2026-06-20
Resolves Jul 8, 2026Locked - P-43TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenueQ1 FY27 consolidated USD revenue in $7.55–7.85BLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jul 2026Locked - P-118PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Jul 9, 2026Locked - P-131Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves Jul 10, 2026Locked - P-14Wimbledon men's singlesChampion is NOT Alcaraz (withdrew, not in draw)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves Jul 12, 2026Locked - P-18Wimbledon 2026 men's (draw simulation)Sinner ~51% title (sim 41% / market 58%) — 50k-draw Monte-CarloLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Jul 12, 2026Locked - P-03India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves ~Jul 13, 2026Locked - P-97JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Jul 14, 2026Locked - P-107Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jul 14, 2026Locked - P-120Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves Jul 14, 2026Locked - P-116J&J Q2 2026 adjusted EPSJohnson & Johnson Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.70 — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Jul 15, 2026Locked - P-128Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenueMorgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $16.0bn (vs ~$19.1bn consensus) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves Jul 15, 2026Locked - P-134BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Jul 15, 2026Locked - P-08TSMC Q2 revenue≥ NT$1.23T (Apr+May already public = 827.7B)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves Jul 16, 2026Locked - P-12Netflix Q2 revenue$12.30–12.85B (±2.2% of its $12.57B guide)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves ~Jul 16, 2026Locked - P-90ASML Q2 2026 net salesASML Q2 2026 total net sales ≥€8.2bn — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jul 16, 2026Locked - P-06FIFA World Cup 2026Calibrated ensemble + partitions (not a named champion)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves Jul 19, 2026Locked - P-15The Odyssey (Nolan)Opens #1, ≥ $80M 3-day domesticLocked 2026-06-20
Resolves Jul 19, 2026Locked - P-19The Open 2026 (golf field simulation)Scheffler 15.8% win / 60% top-5 — 100k-tournament Monte-Carlo (field 43.3%)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Jul 19, 2026Locked - P-35HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 PATQ1 FY27 standalone PAT > ₹18,155cr one-off-inflated base — ~0.60Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jul 20, 2026Locked - P-127Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPSLockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $6.00 (vs ~$7.20 consensus) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves Jul 21, 2026Locked - P-133Verizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPSVerizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $1.15 (vs ~$1.27 consensus) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves Jul 21, 2026Locked - P-33Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 UnpackedFold 8 / Fold 8 Wide announced at summer-2026 UnpackedLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jul 2026Locked - P-45Alphabet Q2 Google CloudGoogle Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 50% YoYLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jul 22, 2026Locked - P-101Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic growthCoca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 3% — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jul 22, 2026Locked - P-93Infosys Q1 FY27Infosys keeps FY27 CC guidance floor ≥1.5% + Q1 rev ≥$4.9bn — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Jul 23, 2026Locked - P-96Intel Q2 2026 revenueIntel Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $13.8bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Jul 23, 2026Locked - P-17Tour de France 2026 (GC simulation)Pogačar 56.9% win / 91.8% podium — 200k-race Monte-CarloLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Jul 26, 2026Locked - P-98LVMH H1 2026 organic growthLVMH H1 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 0% — ~0.74Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Jul 28, 2026Locked - P-104Visa fiscal Q3 2026 net revenueVisa FQ3 2026 GAAP net revenue ≥ $11.2bn — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Jul 28, 2026Locked - P-07Fed July FOMCNo cut (target held ≥ 3.50–3.75%)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves Jul 29, 2026Locked - P-34Meta Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $58.0B (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jul 29, 2026Locked - P-95Spotify Q2 2026 usersSpotify Q2 2026 MAU ≥770M and Premium subs ≥296M — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jul 29, 2026Locked - P-106SK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profitSK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profit ≥ ₩32tn — ~0.91Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jul 29, 2026Locked - P-125Ford Q2 2026 adjusted EBITFord Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT positive (>$0) — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Jul 29, 2026Locked - P-135ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenueServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue ≥ $3.80bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves Jul 29, 2026Locked - P-41Azure Q4 FY26 cloud growthAzure FQ4-FY26 growth ≥ 39% cc (guide floor) — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jul 2026Locked - P-42AWS Q2 2026 growthAWS Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 25% YoYLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jul 2026Locked - P-46Apple Q3 FY26 revenueApple June-quarter revenue grows ≥ 14% YoY (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Jul 30, 2026Locked - P-114Mastercard Q2 2026 net revenueMastercard Q2 2026 net revenue grows ≥8% YoY cc — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jul 30, 2026Locked - P-124US Q2 2026 GDP advance estimateUS Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate ≥ 1.0% annualized (GDPNow ~3.0%) — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Jul 30, 2026Locked - P-91Bank of Japan July 2026 decisionBoJ holds policy rate at 1.0% at July 2026 meeting — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jul 31, 2026Locked - P-121ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPSExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.50 (vs ~$3.50 consensus) — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Jul 31, 2026Locked - P-10Spider-Man: Brand New DayOpens #1, ≥ $140M 3-day domesticLocked 2026-06-20
Resolves Aug 2, 2026Locked - P-37EU AI Act Aug 2 appliesGPAI enforcement + Art 50(1) applicable on schedule (50(2) watermarking excluded)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Aug 2, 2026Locked - P-47AMD Q2 2026 revenueAMD Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $10.9B (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 4, 2026Locked - P-129Pfizer FY2026 guidance floorPfizer keeps FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $2.80 at Q2 — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Aug 4, 2026Locked - P-132Caterpillar Q2 2026 revenueCaterpillar Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $17.0bn (vs ~$19bn consensus) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves Aug 4, 2026Locked - P-04RBI August MPCHold 5.25% (0.91) · Neutral (0.95) · 6-0 (0.72)Locked 2026-06-20
Resolves Aug 5, 2026Locked - P-67Qualcomm FQ3 2026 revenueQualcomm FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $9.2B (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 5, 2026Locked - P-68Reliance Q1 FY27 revenueReliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grows ≥ 5% YoYLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 2026Locked - P-92Novo Nordisk Wegovy Q2 2026Novo Wegovy franchise sales grow Q2 > Q1 2026 — ~0.80Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Aug 5, 2026Locked - P-113Uber Q2 2026 gross bookingsUber Q2 2026 gross bookings ≥ $55bn — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Aug 5, 2026Locked - P-117Airbnb Q2 2026 revenueAirbnb Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $3.45bn — ~0.91Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Aug 5, 2026Locked - P-122Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 revenueArm FQ1 2027 revenue ≥ $1.21bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Aug 5, 2026Locked - P-38Nintendo Switch 2 unitsSwitch 2 cumulative units shipped ≥ 22.0M at Q1 FY27 — ~0.72Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Aug 6, 2026Locked - P-55Mario Kart World unitsMK World lifetime units > 15M at Nintendo Q1 FY27Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~early Aug 2026Locked - P-123McDonald's Q2 2026 global compsMcDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales > 0% — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Aug 6, 2026Locked - P-69Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~early Aug 2026Locked - P-130US July 2026 unemployment rateUS July 2026 unemployment rate ≤ 5.0% — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Aug 7, 2026Locked - P-36Palantir Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $1.797B (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 10, 2026Locked - P-70Circle USDC circulationCircle USDC in circulation at Q2'26 quarter-end ≥ $70BLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 11, 2026Locked - P-94Disney streaming FQ3 2026Disney DTC/streaming operating income positive in fiscal Q3 2026 — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Aug 12, 2026Locked - P-126Home Depot FQ2 2026 compsHome Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales ≥ 0% — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-26
Resolves ~Aug 18, 2026Locked - P-76Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-23
Resolves ~Aug 20, 2026Locked - P-21Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 26, 2026Locked - P-56Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 26, 2026Locked - P-71Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 26, 2026Locked - P-22India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Aug 31, 2026Locked - P-77Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYLocked 2026-06-23
Resolves ~Sep 3, 2026Locked - P-48Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote shareLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Sep 6, 2026Locked - P-112ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Sep 10, 2026Locked - P-72Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Sep 2026Locked - P-49Canelo vs MbilliCanelo beats Mbilli (US ET card date) — calibrated ~0.72Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Sep 12, 2026Locked - P-23US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.70Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Sep 13, 2026Locked - P-50Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Sep 2026Locked - P-57Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Sep 2026Locked - P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Sep 17, 2026Locked - P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Sep 18, 2026Locked - P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Sep 23, 2026Locked - P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Sep 28, 2026Locked - P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeLocked 2026-06-20
Resolves Sep 30, 2026Locked - P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Sep 30, 2026Locked - P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Sep 30, 2026Locked - P-59Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.88Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Oct 4, 2026Locked - P-89China Q3 2026 GDPChina official Q3 2026 GDP ≥4.5% YoY — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Oct 18, 2026Locked - P-78Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-23
Resolves ~Oct 29, 2026Locked - P-105Copper end-October 2026LME copper closes end-Oct 2026 ≥ $9,000/t — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Oct 30, 2026Locked - P-73BitMine ETH treasuryBitMine disclosed ETH holdings ≥ 6,000,000 by Oct 31 — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Oct 31, 2026Locked - P-60ARC Prize 2026 Grand Prize2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize unclaimed (ARC-AGI-2) — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Nov 2026Locked - P-24US 2026 midterms — SenateRepublicans retain the Senate — calibrated ~0.54Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Nov 3, 2026Locked - P-44US House 2026 — DemocratsDemocrats win US House majority (≥218) — calibrated ~0.76Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Nov 2026Locked - P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.92Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Nov 16, 2026Locked - P-25GTA VI release dateGTA VI ships Nov 19 2026, no further delay — ~0.72Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Nov 19, 2026Locked - P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.72Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Nov 30, 2026Locked - P-20F1 2026 Drivers' title (rest-of-season simulation)Antonelli ~70% champion — 40k-run Monte-Carlo (model 81% / market 61%, disclosed)Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Dec 2026Locked - P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260MLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Dec 21, 2026Locked - P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Dec 21, 2026Locked - P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-endLocked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-28Strategy (MSTR) 1M-BTC targetMSTR holds < 1,000,000 BTC at year-end — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-29Bitcoin year-end 2026BTC CME BRR settles < $90,000 on Dec 31 — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.84Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.97Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-53Metaplanet 100k-BTC targetMetaplanet holds < 100,000 BTC at year-end — calibrated ~0.88Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-61Stablecoin market capTotal stablecoin market cap > $340B at year-end — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-62USDT #1 stablecoinUSDT is the #1 stablecoin by market cap at year-end — ~0.98Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-63No private-fusion Q>1 in 2026No verified private-fusion scientific Q>1 in 2026 — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 2026Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.97Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-83Gold year-end 2026Gold closes 2026 ≥ $3,500/oz (structural floor) — ~0.95Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.96Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-102Nifty 50 year-end 2026India Nifty 50 closes 2026 ≥ 22,000 (vs ~24,022 spot) — ~0.80Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-111FIDE World Chess Championship 2026FIDE WCC 2026 match begins by Dec 31, 2026 — ~0.80Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Locked - P-109LA Rams 2026 NFL playoffsLA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — ~0.82Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 4, 2027Locked - P-85Brent 2026 annual average2026 Brent calendar-year average ≥ $85/bbl (EIA) — ~0.78Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-86Henry Hub 2026 annual average2026 Henry Hub calendar-year average ≤ $4.25/MMBtu (EIA) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.94Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-79UnitedHealth FY2026 adjusted EPSFY2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $18.25 (guide floor) — calibrated ~0.82Locked 2026-06-23
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-872026 top-3 warmest year2026 ranks top-3 warmest year on record (Copernicus C3S) — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-24
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-99Toyota best-selling automaker 2026Toyota = world's best-selling automaker for calendar 2026 — ~0.93Locked 2026-06-25
Resolves ~Jan 2027Locked - P-30Hyperscaler 2026 capexMSFT+GOOGL+AMZN+META CY2026 capex ≥ $600B — ~0.95Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-31OpenAI revenue run-rateAnnualized run-rate ≥ $30B at end-2026 — ~0.88Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-64DraftKings FY2026 revenueFY2026 revenue inside $6.5–6.9B guidance band — ~0.85Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked - P-32TKO Group FY2026 revenueFY2026 total revenue ≥ $5.60B (floor) — ~0.90Locked 2026-06-21
Resolves ~Feb 2027Locked