The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 2 of 345 ·Not yet tagged ×July 2026 ×Clear all
July 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-06 | FIFA World Cup 2026Calibrated ensemble + partitions (not a named champion)HIT (all partitions) - Spain won: not a first-time nation (the 63.3% side), UEFA winner (65.8%), not CONMEBOL, and both finalists (Spain + Argentina) were in the frozen Big-4 so >=1-Big-4-in-the-final (72.5%). Champion Spain was the ensemble's #2 name (14.2%).not yet tagged | 19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-80 | OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82HIT - OPEC+ announced an August output increase of 188,000 bpd (>0).not yet tagged | 6 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |