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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 24 of 345 ·Not yet tagged ×Clear all

August 20262 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-55Mario Kart World unitsMK World lifetime units > 15M at Nintendo Q1 FY27HIT - Mario Kart World lifetime units 15.39M at Q1 FY27, >15M.not yet tagged6 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-37EU AI Act Aug 2 appliesGPAI enforcement + Art 50(1) applicable on schedule (50(2) watermarking excluded)HIT - the EU AI Act's GPAI enforcement powers took effect on schedule on Aug 2, 2026 (Art 50(2) watermarking was excluded from the lock).not yet tagged2 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit

July 20262 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-06FIFA World Cup 2026Calibrated ensemble + partitions (not a named champion)HIT (all partitions) - Spain won: not a first-time nation (the 63.3% side), UEFA winner (65.8%), not CONMEBOL, and both finalists (Spain + Argentina) were in the frozen Big-4 so >=1-Big-4-in-the-final (72.5%). Champion Spain was the ensemble's #2 name (14.2%).not yet tagged19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-80OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82HIT - OPEC+ announced an August output increase of 188,000 bpd (>0).not yet tagged6 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit

September 20262 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-112ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94not yet tagged10 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-49Canelo vs MbilliCanelo beats Mbilli (US ET card date) — calibrated ~0.72not yet tagged12 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

October 20262 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-145Euro area September 2026 inflationEuro-area Sept 2026 flash HICP ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.93not yet tagged1 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-105Copper end-October 2026LME copper closes end-Oct 2026 ≥ $9,000/t — ~0.92not yet tagged30 Oct 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

November 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-25GTA VI release dateGTA VI ships Nov 19 2026, no further delay — ~0.72not yet tagged19 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

December 202612 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-157European TTF gas 1 Dec 2026TTF front-month gas settles ≤€100/MWh on 1 Dec 2026 — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-182Uranium spot 1 Dec 2026Uranium spot ≤US$130/lb U3O8 on 1 Dec 2026 (spot, not long-term contract) — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-199Arabica coffee 1 Dec 2026ICE Arabica Coffee C settles ≤500c/lb on 1 Dec 2026 (~16% above the 52-week high) — ~0.92not yet tagged1 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-20F1 2026 Drivers' title (rest-of-season simulation)Antonelli ~70% champion — 40k-run Monte-Carlo (model 81% / market 61%, disclosed)not yet tagged15 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-28Strategy (MSTR) 1M-BTC targetMSTR holds < 1,000,000 BTC at year-end — ~0.90not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-29Bitcoin year-end 2026BTC CME BRR settles < $90,000 on Dec 31 — ~0.85not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-61Stablecoin market capTotal stablecoin market cap > $340B at year-end — ~0.82not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-62USDT #1 stablecoinUSDT is the #1 stablecoin by market cap at year-end — ~0.98not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-63No private-fusion Q>1 in 2026No verified private-fusion scientific Q>1 in 2026 — ~0.96not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-83Gold year-end 2026Gold closes 2026 ≥ $3,500/oz (structural floor) — ~0.95not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-111FIDE World Chess Championship 2026FIDE WCC 2026 match begins by Dec 31, 2026 — ~0.80not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-197Silver year-end 2026Silver spot ≥US$38/oz at final 2026 close (floor sized to the 2011 -47% precedent) — ~0.90not yet tagged31 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked

January 20272 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in January 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-85Brent 2026 annual average2026 Brent calendar-year average ≥ $85/bbl (EIA) — ~0.78not yet tagged15 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-872026 top-3 warmest year2026 ranks top-3 warmest year on record (Copernicus C3S) — ~0.93not yet tagged31 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked

February 20271 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-30Hyperscaler 2026 capexMSFT+GOOGL+AMZN+META CY2026 capex ≥ $600B — ~0.95not yet tagged15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

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