The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 2 of 345 ·Miss ×Next 7 days ×August 2026 ×Clear all
August 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-22 | India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandMISS — locked the 6.3–7.3% band; MoSPI printed 7.8% YoY for Q1 FY27 on 31 Aug 2026 (real GDP Rs 81.36 lakh crore vs Rs 75.46 lakh crore). Above the band, so a miss under our own band rule even though the direction was right — the same failure as P-05. The band was set around the RBI's own 7% projection and the economy beat it: manufacturing 9.2%, real GVA +8.2%. We were not bearish, we were insufficiently bullish, and a band miss is a miss. We published it.India | 31 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-69 | Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M).United States | 7 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |