The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 2 of 360 ·Brazil ×Next 7 days ×Clear all
October 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-59 | Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.88HIT — locked that the 4 Oct 2026 Brazilian presidential first round would go to a runoff (no candidate above 50%). The TSE count gives Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% and Lula 45.16% of valid votes.Brazil | 4 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
November 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-176 | Brazil October 2026 IPCABrazil Oct 2026 12-month IPCA ≤5.5% (vs 4.44% July) — ~0.93Brazil | 10 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |