The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 5 of 345 ·Brazil ×Clear all
October 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-59 | Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.88Brazil | 4 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Locked |
November 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-176 | Brazil October 2026 IPCABrazil Oct 2026 12-month IPCA ≤5.5% (vs 4.44% July) — ~0.93Brazil | 10 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
February 20273 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-262 | América Móvil FY2026 capital expenditureAmérica Móvil FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 6.3bn (guidance ~USD 7bn; capex locked because Q2 EBITDA growth was published 3 ways) — ~0.90BrazilMexico | 16 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-322 | Vale 2026 iron ore PRODUCTIONVale calendar-2026 iron ore PRODUCTION >= 320 Mt (guidance 335-345 Mt maintained with 2 quarters banked; NOT sales, NOT pellets; cost guidance RAISED to US$58-62/t) — ~0.93Brazil | 18 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-250 | Petrobras FY2026 oil productionPetrobras FY2026 average OIL production >= 2.45 million bpd (NOT oil-and-gas on a boe basis; Q2 record 2.7 mmbpd) — ~0.91Brazil | 25 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |