The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 6 of 360 ·Resolved ×Not yet tagged ×Next 30 days ×Clear all
October 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-145 | Euro area September 2026 inflationEuro-area Sept 2026 flash HICP ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.93MISS — locked euro-area September 2026 flash HICP at or below 3.5% (~0.93). Eurostat's flash on 2 Oct 2026 printed 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August and above the ~3.6% consensus, with energy the main driver; the 16 Oct final confirmed 3.8%. Published as a miss.not yet tagged | 1 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Miss |
September 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-112 | ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94HIT — locked that the ECB would not cut (deposit rate at or above 2.25%). On 10 Sep 2026 it RAISED its three key rates by 25bp, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% from 16 Sep. The lock said no cut, not a hold; a hike satisfies it, and we do not claim we foresaw the hike.not yet tagged | 10 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
August 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-55 | Mario Kart World unitsMK World lifetime units > 15M at Nintendo Q1 FY27HIT - Mario Kart World lifetime units 15.39M at Q1 FY27, >15M.not yet tagged | 6 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-37 | EU AI Act Aug 2 appliesGPAI enforcement + Art 50(1) applicable on schedule (50(2) watermarking excluded)HIT - the EU AI Act's GPAI enforcement powers took effect on schedule on Aug 2, 2026 (Art 50(2) watermarking was excluded from the lock).not yet tagged | 2 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
July 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-06 | FIFA World Cup 2026Calibrated ensemble + partitions (not a named champion)HIT (all partitions) - Spain won: not a first-time nation (the 63.3% side), UEFA winner (65.8%), not CONMEBOL, and both finalists (Spain + Argentina) were in the frozen Big-4 so >=1-Big-4-in-the-final (72.5%). Champion Spain was the ensemble's #2 name (14.2%).not yet tagged | 19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-80 | OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82HIT - OPEC+ announced an August output increase of 188,000 bpd (>0).not yet tagged | 6 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |