The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 2 of 360 ·Not yet tagged ×September 2026 ×Clear all
September 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-112 | ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94HIT — locked that the ECB would not cut (deposit rate at or above 2.25%). On 10 Sep 2026 it RAISED its three key rates by 25bp, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% from 16 Sep. The lock said no cut, not a hold; a hike satisfies it, and we do not claim we foresaw the hike.not yet tagged | 10 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-49 | Canelo vs MbilliCanelo beats Mbilli (US ET card date) — calibrated ~0.72not yet tagged | 12 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Locked |