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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 25 of 345 ·September 2026 ×Clear all

September 202625 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-167Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.United States1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-137Bank of Canada September 2026BoC holds the overnight rate at 2.25% (no change) — ~0.95Canada2 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-77Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYUnited States3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Locked
P-140Lululemon Q2 FY2026Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue ≥ $2.4bn (vs ~$2.55bn est) — ~0.85Canada4 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-48Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote shareGermany6 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-179Inditex H1 FY2026 net salesInditex H1 FY2026 net sales ≥€17.0bn (€8.7bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93Spain9 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-112ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94not yet tagged10 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-72Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)United States11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-136US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.82United States11 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-49Canelo vs MbilliCanelo beats Mbilli (US ET card date) — calibrated ~0.72not yet tagged12 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-23US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.70United States13 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-50Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)United States14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-57Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)United States15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-144US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.92United States16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-159Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.92United States16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82United States17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82United States17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.93United Kingdom18 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteUnited States23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-142Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.93Switzerland25 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93United States28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-138RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.95Australia29 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeUnited States30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Locked
P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95United States30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90United States30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

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