The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 4 of 360 ·Hit ×Australia ×Next 7 days ×Clear all
October 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-156 | Australia Sept-quarter 2026 CPIAustralia Sept-qtr 2026 headline CPI ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.8% June qtr) — ~0.91HIT, with a basis note — locked Australia's September-quarter 2026 headline CPI annual movement at or below 4.5%. Since late 2025 the ABS has led with the monthly CPI and no longer states a quarterly headline annual rate. Every available reading clears the ceiling: the official quarterly index (103.64 vs 99.73 a year earlier) gives 3.9%, and the September monthly headline was 4.3%. The lock's 3.8% June-quarter baseline predates the ABS re-basing.Australia | 28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-152 | BHP Q1 FY2027 iron oreBHP Q1 FY27 WAIO iron ore ≥58Mt BHP-share (~8% below guided pace) — ~0.91HIT — locked BHP Q1 FY2027 Western Australia Iron Ore production of at least 58 Mt, BHP share. BHP reported 64.3 Mt on its share (71.9 Mt on a 100% basis) on 20 Oct 2026. A volume lock, not an iron-ore price call.Australia | 21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
September 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-138 | RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.95HIT — locked that the RBA would not cut (cash rate at or above 4.35%; hold-vs-hike not predicted). On 29 Sep 2026 the RBA RAISED the cash rate target by 25bp to 4.60%. A hike satisfies a no-cut lock; we did not call the direction.Australia | 29 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
July 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-66 | Australia Women — T20 WC finalAustralia Women reach the ICC Women's T20 WC 2026 final — ~0.72HIT - Australia Women reached (and won) the ICC Women's T20 WC final, beating England by 7 wickets.Australia | 2 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |