The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 3 of 345 ·Miss ×United States ×Clear all
August 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-69 | Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M).United States | 7 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
July 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-05 | Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).United States | 2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Miss |
June 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-02 | US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.United States | 17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Miss |