Skip to main content
RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 11 of 345 ·Awaiting resolution ×Germany ×Clear all

September 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-48Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote shareGermany6 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

November 20264 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-187Munich Re 9M 2026 net resultMunich Re 9M 2026 group net result ≥€4.8bn (€3.9bn already earned in H1) — ~0.92Germany5 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-178Rheinmetall 9M 2026 salesRheinmetall 9M 2026 consolidated sales ≥€8.0bn (€5.23bn already booked in H1) — ~0.92Germany6 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-185Deutsche Telekom Q3 2026 EBITDAaLDeutsche Telekom Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAaL ≥€11.2bn (vs €11.8bn in Q2) — ~0.93Germany12 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-249Siemens FY2026 EPS pre-PPASiemens FY2026 basic EPS PRE-PPA >= EUR 10.70 (the floor held BEFORE the raise to EUR 11.20-11.50; FY ends 30 Sep 2026) — ~0.94Germany12 Nov 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

December 20262 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-204DAX year-end 2026DAX closes 2026 inside 21,000-32,000 (band; correlated with P-198, disclosed) — ~0.92Germany30 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-198German 10-year Bund year-end 2026German 10-year Bund yield closes 2026 ≤4.50% (vs 3.27%, a 15-year high; locked against trend) — ~0.91Germany31 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked

January 20271 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in January 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-253SAP FY2026 cloud revenueSAP FY2026 CLOUD REVENUE at CONSTANT CURRENCIES >= EUR 25.0bn (guidance EUR 25.8-26.2bn cc; backlog EUR 22.9bn) — ~0.92Germany27 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

February 20271 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-270BASF FY2026 EBITDA before special itemsBASF FY2026 EBITDA BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= EUR 6.6bn (guidance raised to EUR 6.9-7.7bn; prior-guidance anchor consciously OVERRIDDEN, see brief) — ~0.94Germany26 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

March 20272 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in March 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-275adidas FY2026 operating profitadidas FY2026 OPERATING PROFIT >= EUR 2.10bn (guidance ~EUR 2.3bn; ~9% buffer for EUR 212m committed World Cup marketing) — ~0.90Germany10 Mar 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-291Bayer FY2026 salesBayer FY2026 SALES >= EUR 43.0bn CURRENCY-ADJUSTED (guidance EUR 44.7-47bn affirmed; H1 loads the year on planting seasons) — ~0.91Germany10 Mar 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

The running scoreboard → · The Intelligence Library →