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RAOSCAFF

The Prediction Series

Every lock, and every score.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known, and scored against that exact criterion afterwards — never against a directional impression. Misses are published in full.

345 locks · 80 resolved · 93.75% hit rate · the running scoreboard →

— Awaiting resolution

1–60 of 265

RAOSCAFF prediction locks, criterion not yet testable
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-137Bank of Canada September 2026BoC holds the overnight rate at 2.25% (no change) — ~0.952 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-77Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoY3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Locked
P-140Lululemon Q2 FY2026Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue ≥ $2.4bn (vs ~$2.55bn est) — ~0.854 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-48Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote share6 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-179Inditex H1 FY2026 net salesInditex H1 FY2026 net sales ≥€17.0bn (€8.7bn booked in Q1) — ~0.939 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-112ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.9410 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-72Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-136US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.8211 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-49Canelo vs MbilliCanelo beats Mbilli (US ET card date) — calibrated ~0.7212 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-23US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.7013 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-50Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-57Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-144US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.9216 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-159Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.9216 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.8217 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.8217 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.9318 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynote23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-142Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.9325 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.9328 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-138RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.9529 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 close30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Locked
P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.9530 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.9030 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-141Accenture FQ4 FY26 revenueAccenture FQ4 FY26 revenue ≥ $17.75bn (low end of guide) — ~0.901 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-145Euro area September 2026 inflationEuro-area Sept 2026 flash HICP ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.931 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-220Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUMBajaj Finance Q2 FY27 consolidated AUM ≥₹5.6 lakh crore (vs ₹5,46,944cr at Q1) — ~0.943 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-59Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.884 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-162Mexico September 2026 inflationMexico Sept 2026 headline inflation ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.12% July) — ~0.938 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-189Tesco H1 2026/27 group salesTesco H1 2026/27 group sales ≥£32.5bn (£16.83bn booked in Q1) — ~0.938 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-263Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross marginEricsson Q3 2026 NETWORKS segment ADJUSTED gross margin >= 47.0% (guidance 48-50%; NOT group gross margin, 2pts lower in Q2) — ~0.9114 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-154Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.9215 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-221ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPIICICI Lombard Q2 FY27 GDPI ≥₹7,500cr (premium not profit; GDPI not GPW) — ~0.9315 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-240TSMC Q3 2026 revenueTSMC Q3 2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 43.0bn (guidance USD 44.6-45.8bn; correlated pair with P-235, disclosed) — ~0.9315 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-200SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.9316 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-325Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenueWipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenue >= US$2.50bn (guidance US$2.574-2.627bn, a ONE-QUARTER-AHEAD absolute dollar range; contrast P-319 HCLTech's full-year % guide) — ~0.9316 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-89China Q3 2026 GDPChina official Q3 2026 GDP ≥4.5% YoY — ~0.9218 Oct 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-155Canada September 2026 CPICanada Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY (vs 2.8% June) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-165Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.9320 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-184L'Oreal Q3 2026 LfL growthL'Oreal Q3 2026 like-for-like sales growth ≥+2.0% (vs +6.8% in H1) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-207Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-213ABB Q3 2026 revenueABB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$9.0bn (vs $9.5bn in Q2; orders +28%) — ~0.9320 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-317Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOMEAxis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOME >= INR 13,800 crore (Q1 NII INR 14,646cr; profit +22.5% was driven by provisions FALLING 43.7% while GNPA rose 1.23%→1.28%) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-146UK September 2026 CPIUK Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.9221 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-152BHP Q1 FY2027 iron oreBHP Q1 FY27 WAIO iron ore ≥58Mt BHP-share (~8% below guided pace) — ~0.9121 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-166CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.9121 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-212Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.9321 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-160Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.9122 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-161Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.9322 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-170GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.9322 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-214Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.9422 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-288Atlas Copco Q3 2026 revenuesAtlas Copco Q3 2026 REVENUES >= SEK 42.0bn (LEVEL-anchored off Q2 SEK 44,974m — the company publishes no numeric guidance) — ~0.9122 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-305UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volumesUltraTech Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED sales volumes >= 36.0 Mt (Q1 41.31 Mt; domestic 39.2 Mt is 2.1 Mt lower and EXCLUDED; Q2 is the monsoon quarter) — ~0.9022 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-334Havells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUEHavells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS >= INR 5,600 crore (Q1 INR 6,518cr but Q1 is the SUMMER COOLING PEAK — 14% buffer; PAT fell 16.64% on doubled A&P spend) — ~0.9122 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-215Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.9323 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-216IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenueIndiGo Q2 FY27 revenue from operations ≥₹19,000cr (seasonal trough; revenue not profit) — ~0.9223 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-289ASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 operating marginASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 OPERATING MARGIN >= 16.0% (LEVEL-anchored off a record Q2 17.0%; margin locked because the sales line has four components) — ~0.9123 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-304Hindustan Unilever Q2 FY2027 EBITDA marginHUL Q2 FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 22.0% (guided 22.5-23.5%; revenue AND the DIRECTION of profit conflict across sources, margin does not) — ~0.9223 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-329Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUENestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE >= INR 5,900 crore (Q1 INR 6,378.18cr; +25.16% was the fastest in FORTY quarters — so we lock the LEVEL, not the rate; profit reported as both INR 958.68cr and INR 975cr) — ~0.9223 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-222SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APESBI Life Q2 FY27 APE ≥₹4,800cr (quarter alone; APE not GWP or VoNB) — ~0.9324 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked

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