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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 11 of 345 ·United Kingdom ×Next 90 days ×Clear all

August 20261 lock resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-122Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 revenueArm FQ1 2027 revenue ≥ $1.21bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Arm fiscal-Q1 FY27 revenue $1.289bn, >=$1.21bn.United Kingdom5 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit

July 20264 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-19The Open 2026 (golf field simulation)Scheffler 15.8% win / 60% top-5 — 100k-tournament Monte-Carlo (field 43.3%)HIT (calibrated) - Scheffler finished T4, meeting the 60% top-5 and 86% top-10 calls; and the brief's explicit signal that the field (43.3%) was the likeliest winner held as longshot Ryan Fox won. The locked win prob was only 15.8%.United Kingdom19 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-14Wimbledon men's singlesChampion is NOT Alcaraz (withdrew, not in draw)HIT - the champion was NOT Alcaraz: Jannik Sinner beat Alexander Zverev to retain the title.United Kingdom12 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-18Wimbledon 2026 men's (draw simulation)Sinner ~51% title (sim 41% / market 58%) — 50k-draw Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Sinner (locked ~51%) won the title, defending his crown.United Kingdom12 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-13F1 — Antonelli's title leadStill standings leader after the British GPHIT - Antonelli remained championship leader after the British GP (Leclerc won; Antonelli P16/no points after a wheel-shield failure); lead trimmed to 25 pts over Russell. Criterion = still leader, TRUE.United Kingdom5 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit

September 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.93United Kingdom18 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

October 20265 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-189Tesco H1 2026/27 group salesTesco H1 2026/27 group sales ≥£32.5bn (£16.83bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93United Kingdom8 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-146UK September 2026 CPIUK Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.92United Kingdom21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-304Hindustan Unilever Q2 FY2027 EBITDA marginHUL Q2 FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 22.0% (guided 22.5-23.5%; revenue AND the DIRECTION of profit conflict across sources, margin does not) — ~0.92United KingdomIndia23 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-209Reckitt FY2026 Core LFL floorReckitt keeps FY2026 Core LFL guidance floor ≥4% at Q3 (Core, not group LFL) — ~0.88United Kingdom27 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-219HSBC 9M 2026 revenueHSBC 9M 2026 constant-currency revenue ex-notables ≥$54bn ($38.2bn booked in H1) — ~0.93United Kingdom27 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked

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