The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 11 of 360 ·Miss ×Next 30 days ×Clear all
October 20263 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-209 | Reckitt FY2026 Core LFL floorReckitt keeps FY2026 Core LFL guidance floor ≥4% at Q3 (Core, not group LFL) — ~0.88MISS — locked that Reckitt would keep its FY2026 Core like-for-like guidance floor at 4% or above at Q3 (~0.88). On 27 Oct 2026 Reckitt CUT Core Reckitt guidance to +3.5% to +4.5% from +4.0% to +5.0%, after Q3 Core LFL growth of 3.3% on North American manufacturing constraints. Published as a miss.United Kingdom | 27 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Miss |
| P-221 | ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPIICICI Lombard Q2 FY27 GDPI ≥₹7,500cr (premium not profit; GDPI not GPW) — ~0.93MISS — locked ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPI of at least ₹7,500 crore (~0.93). The company reported GDPI of ₹67.92bn (₹6,792 crore) on 14 Oct 2026, up only 3.0% against 7.0% for the industry as crop and mass health contracted. It also misses on the n basis (₹72.84bn). Published as a miss.India | 15 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Miss |
| P-145 | Euro area September 2026 inflationEuro-area Sept 2026 flash HICP ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.93MISS — locked euro-area September 2026 flash HICP at or below 3.5% (~0.93). Eurostat's flash on 2 Oct 2026 printed 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August and above the ~3.6% consensus, with energy the main driver; the 16 Oct final confirmed 3.8%. Published as a miss.not yet tagged | 1 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Miss |
September 20263 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-108 | US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90MISS — locked the US 10-year Treasury yield closing September 2026 inside 3.75-5.25% (~0.90). FRED DGS10 printed 5.29% for 30 Sep 2026, four basis points above the top of the band; it had been 5.24% two sessions earlier. A band miss is a miss. Published as a miss.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-103 | Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82MISS — locked a Fed hold at 3.50-3.75% (~0.82). On 16 Sep 2026 the FOMC voted 12-0 to RAISE the target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Published as a miss.United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-23 | US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.70MISS — locked the 2026 US Open men's champion as Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz (~0.70). Alexander Zverev won, beating Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(2) 5-7 6-2 in the 13 Sep 2026 final; neither named player reached the final. Published as a miss.United States | 13 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
August 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-22 | India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandMISS — locked the 6.3–7.3% band; MoSPI printed 7.8% YoY for Q1 FY27 on 31 Aug 2026 (real GDP Rs 81.36 lakh crore vs Rs 75.46 lakh crore). Above the band, so a miss under our own band rule even though the direction was right — the same failure as P-05. The band was set around the RBI's own 7% projection and the economy beat it: manufacturing 9.2%, real GVA +8.2%. We were not bearish, we were insufficiently bullish, and a band miss is a miss. We published it.India | 31 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-69 | Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M).United States | 7 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
July 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-03 | India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)MISS - locked 4.6% (above the ~4.5% consensus); India June CPI printed 4.38%, below both.India | 13 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-05 | Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).United States | 2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Miss |
June 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-02 | US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.United States | 17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Miss |