Skip to main content
RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 51 of 345 ·Next 90 days ×November 2026 ×Clear all

November 202611 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-281Richemont H1 FY2027 salesRichemont H1 FY2027 group SALES >= EUR 11.5bn at actual rates (Q1 alone EUR 6.3bn; LEVEL-anchored — Richemont publishes no guidance) — ~0.92France14 Nov 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-226China October 2026 M2 growthChina Oct 2026 M2 growth ≥7.0% YoY (rate not level - levels conflicted) — ~0.93China15 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-228China October 2026 total social financingChina Oct 2026 TSF STOCK growth ≥7.0% YoY (stock not flow) — ~0.93China15 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.92United States16 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.87ChinaUnited States17 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-25GTA VI release dateGTA VI ships Nov 19 2026, no further delay — ~0.72not yet tagged19 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-195Japan October 2026 core CPIJapan Oct 2026 core CPI ex-fresh-food ≤3.0% YoY (vs 1.8% July) — ~0.93Japan20 Nov 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.91United States25 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-238Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE >= USD 4.5bn (the guidance floor held BEFORE August's raise to USD 4.75bn) — ~0.93United States25 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-241Fisher & Paykel Healthcare H1 FY2027 operating revenueF&P Healthcare H1 FY2027 OPERATING REVENUE >= NZ$1.18bn (guides ~NZ$1.24bn; reported NZD, no FX restatement) — ~0.92New Zealand25 Nov 2026locked 30 Aug 2026Locked
P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.72United States30 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked

The running scoreboard → · The Intelligence Library →