The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 16 of 360 ·Resolved ×United States ×September 2026 ×Clear all
September 202616 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-16 | Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeHIT — locked cumulative US spot-bitcoin-ETF net inflows of at least $45bn at the Q3 close. Summing Farside Investors' daily totals from 11 Jan 2024 to 30 Sep 2026 gives $57.56bn, which reconciles to Farside's printed all-time total once October flows are added. A flows lock, not a bitcoin-price call.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-88 | Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95HIT — locked an Apple event in the week of 7 Sep with iPhone 18 Pro on sale before 30 Sep. Apple held its event on 9 Sep 2026 and iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale on 18 Sep.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-108 | US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90MISS — locked the US 10-year Treasury yield closing September 2026 inside 3.75-5.25% (~0.90). FRED DGS10 printed 5.29% for 30 Sep 2026, four basis points above the top of the band; it had been 5.24% two sessions earlier. A band miss is a miss. Published as a miss.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-100 | LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93HIT — locked a Dodgers 2026 postseason berth. They clinched on 14 Sep 2026 with a 4-1 win at Cincinnati.United States | 28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-58 | Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteHIT — locked a new smart-glasses model or hardware capability from the Connect 2026 keynote. On 23 Sep 2026, the Connect keynote day, Meta announced Ray-Ban Meta Audio, Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 3) and new Meta Capri and Meta Nova styles (Meta Newsroom: "Today at Connect, we announced"). Placement on the keynote stage rests on live coverage of the keynote.United States | 23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-103 | Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82MISS — locked a Fed hold at 3.50-3.75% (~0.82). On 16 Sep 2026 the FOMC voted 12-0 to RAISE the target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Published as a miss.United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-143 | General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82HIT — locked that General Mills would hold its FY2027 adjusted-EPS guidance floor of $3.00 at Q1. On 23 Sep 2026 it reaffirmed adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00-$3.20. The floor held exactly; the criterion is inclusive.United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-144 | US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.92HIT — locked a year-on-year rise in US August 2026 retail sales. The Census Bureau's advance estimate on 16 Sep 2026 put retail and food services sales at $773.9bn seasonally adjusted, up 6.0% from August 2025. Scored on the first-published advance figure, not the later revision.United States | 16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-159 | Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked FQ3 2026 deliveries of at least 19,000 homes. Lennar delivered 20,840 (down 3% YoY), reported 16 Sep 2026, 9.7% above the floor.United States | 16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-57 | Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue of at least $29.4bn, the guidance midpoint. Broadcom reported $29,591m on 2 Sep 2026, +86% YoY: a margin of $191m, or 0.65%. A midpoint threshold that was genuinely in contention.United States | 15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-50 | Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)HIT — locked Q1 FY2027 cloud revenue growth of at least 58% in US dollars, the guidance floor. Oracle reported total cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) of $11,607m on 10 Sep 2026, +62% in USD and +61% in constant currency.United States | 14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-23 | US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.70MISS — locked the 2026 US Open men's champion as Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz (~0.70). Alexander Zverev won, beating Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(2) 5-7 6-2 in the 13 Sep 2026 final; neither named player reached the final. Published as a miss.United States | 13 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-72 | Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue at or above the $6.67bn guidance floor. Adobe reported a record $6,760m on 10 Sep 2026, +13% YoY and 1.35% above the floor.United States | 11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-136 | US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.82HIT — locked US August 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.7% YoY. The BLS printed CPI-U all items +3.4% (not seasonally adjusted) on 11 Sep 2026, 0.3 points inside the ceiling.United States | 11 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-77 | Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYHIT — locked August 2026 net sales growth of at least +5% YoY. Costco reported $23.70bn for the four weeks to 30 Aug 2026, +9.9% from $21.56bn (released 2 Sep, after the close).United States | 3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-167 | Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.United States | 1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |