Skip to main content
RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 16 of 345 ·Awaiting resolution ×United States ×December 2026 ×Clear all

December 202616 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.91United States1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260MUnited States21 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.78United States21 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-endUnited States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.78United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.84United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.97United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 2026United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.97United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked

The running scoreboard → · The Intelligence Library →