The Record · Canada
Canada. Every lock, every score.
5 forecasts on Canada, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 3 resolved — 3 hit, 0 miss.
January 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-259 | Canadian National FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS growthCN FY2026 ADJUSTED DILUTED EPS growth >= 3.0% (guidance raised to mid-to-high single digits; 3 EPS measures exist — adjusted diluted is the guided one) — ~0.92 | 26 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
February 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-303 | Enbridge FY2026 adjusted EBITDAEnbridge FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= C$19.6bn (guidance C$20.2-20.8bn reaffirmed; C$41bn secured backlog; tolls on volume not the oil price) — ~0.93 | 12 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
October 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-155 | Canada September 2026 CPICanada Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY (vs 2.8% June) — ~0.92HIT — locked Canada's September 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.5% YoY. Statistics Canada printed 3.1% on 19 Oct 2026, driven by gasoline (+27.8%); excluding gasoline it was 2.2%. | 20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
September 20262 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-140 | Lululemon Q2 FY2026Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue ≥ $2.4bn (vs ~$2.55bn est) — ~0.85HIT — locked Q2 FY2026 net revenue of at least $2.4bn. Lululemon reported $2,415.6m on 3 Sep 2026, down 4% YoY: a margin of $15.6m, or 0.65%. Scored on the unrounded statement figure, because the headline '$2.4 billion' is rounded. | 4 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-137 | Bank of Canada September 2026BoC holds the overnight rate at 2.25% (no change) — ~0.95HIT — locked a hold at 2.25%. On 2 Sep 2026 the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20%). | 2 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
— Intelligence on Canada
3
- #FarmlandValuesDecode
Canadian Farmland Values 2026: Two Independent Measurements, Three Publishers
Three Canadian publishers report on farmland values in the 2024–2026 window. Per their own published methodologies, only two of the three measure it independently. Statistics Canada derives a per-acre figure by applying FCC change ratios to a Census-of-Agriculture base; Re/Max cites FCC for the rural figure within a 12-urban-market commercial scope. The same headline 'Canadian farmland up X%' measures one specific thing in each publisher's hands.
+9.3% / +6.96% / +13.1%FCC 2025 · StatCan derived July 2024 · Re/Max citing FCC SK 20242026-05-26·12 min - #SpecialCropsDecode
Canadian Special-Crops Exports 2026: Four Publishers, Four Rulers, One Settlement Number
Four Canadian publishers — AAFC, Statistics Canada, the Canadian Grain Commission, and Pulse Canada — report Canada's special-crops exports on four different rulers. The same headline tonnage means four different things depending on whose page you opened. The brief identifies the single specific quantity the market settles against: the customs-basis monthly reading under HS 0713.
1,822 ktAAFC 2024/25 lentil exports · Outlook April 20262026-05-26·11 min - #IndiaCanada2025
Canada · Indian-Student Cohort Decoded — Study Permits, PGWP, Permanent Residency
510,235 active Indian study-permit holders in Canada at end-CY2024, down from 533,305 in 2023. New permit grants to Indians collapsed from 76,930 in Jan–Aug 2024 to 9,955 in Jan–Aug 2025. Three IRCC disclosure stacks decomposed against the 2020-2026 rule changes.
510,235Indian study-permit holders Canada CY20242026-05-25·7 min