The Record · Germany
Germany. Every lock, every score.
11 forecasts on Germany, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. None has reached its resolution date yet; nothing to grade.
September 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-48 | Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote share | 6 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Locked |
November 20264 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-187 | Munich Re 9M 2026 net resultMunich Re 9M 2026 group net result ≥€4.8bn (€3.9bn already earned in H1) — ~0.92 | 5 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-178 | Rheinmetall 9M 2026 salesRheinmetall 9M 2026 consolidated sales ≥€8.0bn (€5.23bn already booked in H1) — ~0.92 | 6 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-185 | Deutsche Telekom Q3 2026 EBITDAaLDeutsche Telekom Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAaL ≥€11.2bn (vs €11.8bn in Q2) — ~0.93 | 12 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-249 | Siemens FY2026 EPS pre-PPASiemens FY2026 basic EPS PRE-PPA >= EUR 10.70 (the floor held BEFORE the raise to EUR 11.20-11.50; FY ends 30 Sep 2026) — ~0.94 | 12 Nov 2026locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
December 20262 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-204 | DAX year-end 2026DAX closes 2026 inside 21,000-32,000 (band; correlated with P-198, disclosed) — ~0.92 | 30 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-198 | German 10-year Bund year-end 2026German 10-year Bund yield closes 2026 ≤4.50% (vs 3.27%, a 15-year high; locked against trend) — ~0.91 | 31 Dec 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Locked |
January 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-253 | SAP FY2026 cloud revenueSAP FY2026 CLOUD REVENUE at CONSTANT CURRENCIES >= EUR 25.0bn (guidance EUR 25.8-26.2bn cc; backlog EUR 22.9bn) — ~0.92 | 27 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
February 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-270 | BASF FY2026 EBITDA before special itemsBASF FY2026 EBITDA BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= EUR 6.6bn (guidance raised to EUR 6.9-7.7bn; prior-guidance anchor consciously OVERRIDDEN, see brief) — ~0.94 | 26 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
March 20272 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-275 | adidas FY2026 operating profitadidas FY2026 OPERATING PROFIT >= EUR 2.10bn (guidance ~EUR 2.3bn; ~9% buffer for EUR 212m committed World Cup marketing) — ~0.90 | 10 Mar 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-291 | Bayer FY2026 salesBayer FY2026 SALES >= EUR 43.0bn CURRENCY-ADJUSTED (guidance EUR 44.7-47bn affirmed; H1 loads the year on planting seasons) — ~0.91 | 10 Mar 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
— Intelligence on Germany
2
- #InflationWedge
The HICP–VPI Wedge — Two Official Inflation Numbers, One Month
For May 2026 (provisional), Destatis reports German inflation at 2.6% (national VPI) and 2.7% (harmonised HVPI / HICP basis) — same month, same statistical office, two index methods, a 0.1-percentage-point wedge (RAOSCAFF arithmetic). The wedge is variable, not a fixed offset: it was 0 pp in April 2026 when both indices printed 2.9%.
2.6% / 2.7%German VPI vs HVPI · May 2026 (provisional)2026-06-05·8 min - #IndiaGermany2025
Germany · Indian-Student Cohort Decoded — Student Visa, Blocked Account, Post-Study Work
59,420 Indian students enrolled in German universities in winter 2024/25, up 20% year-on-year, now the largest source country ahead of China. DAAD census vs MEA consular estimates produce different universe sizes. Sperrkonto blocked-account requirement, FEG 2023 Chancenkarte, §16b work-authorisation rules decomposed.
59,420Indian students enrolled Germany winter 2024/25 (+20% YoY)2026-05-25·7 min