The Record · Australia
Australia. Every lock, every score.
6 forecasts on Australia, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 1 resolved — 1 hit, 0 miss.
September 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-138 | RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.95 | 29 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
October 20262 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-152 | BHP Q1 FY2027 iron oreBHP Q1 FY27 WAIO iron ore ≥58Mt BHP-share (~8% below guided pace) — ~0.91 | 21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-156 | Australia Sept-quarter 2026 CPIAustralia Sept-qtr 2026 headline CPI ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.8% June qtr) — ~0.91 | 28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
February 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-269 | Woodside FY2026 productionWoodside FY2026 group PRODUCTION >= 170 MMboe (guidance 174-185 reaffirmed; H1 86.5; a source discrepancy is disclosed and non-decisive) — ~0.92 | 17 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
August 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-294 | EBOS Group FY2027 underlying EBITDAEBOS FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= A$610m in AUSTRALIAN dollars (guidance A$635-655m; NZ-domiciled but guides in AUD) — ~0.91 | 19 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
July 20261 lock resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-66 | Australia Women — T20 WC finalAustralia Women reach the ICC Women's T20 WC 2026 final — ~0.72HIT - Australia Women reached (and won) the ICC Women's T20 WC final, beating England by 7 wickets. | 2 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
— Intelligence on Australia
16
- #RealUnemployment
The Real Unemployment Gap — Two Quantities, One Idea
In April 2026 the ABS put Australia's unemployment rate at 4.5% (seasonally adjusted, 15+ population); for the same calendar month Roy Morgan's 'real unemployment' estimate was 10.1% (actual/not seasonally adjusted, 14+ workforce). The ~5.6-percentage-point gap is a property of two different defined quantities measuring one labour-market idea — different sample frames, reference windows, and seasonal bases.
4.5% / 10.1%ABS vs Roy Morgan unemployment · Apr 20262026-06-05·8 min - #SuperDecoded
A$4.44 Trillion — What One Superannuation Number Conceals
Australian total superannuation assets reached A$4,437.9 billion at 31 March 2026 (APRA). The single number conceals three architectures: an ownership-regime split between pooled APRA-regulated funds and self-directed SMSFs; a stock-vs-flow relationship where a single quarter's revaluation rivals most of a year's net contributions; and a performance test that measures relative benchmark gaps and fees over 10 years, not absolute member loss.
A$4.44tntotal super assets · 31 Mar 20262026-06-05·8 min - #IndiaAustralia2025
Australia · Indian-Student Cohort Decoded
107,038 Indians held a Subclass 500 student visa in-country on 30 June 2025 — ahead of China at 102,990 for the first time. The three-stage enrolment-to-post-study funnel, the 2024-25 age-35 cap and commencement ceiling, decomposed across five Australian publisher universes.
107,038Indian student visa holders in-country 30 June 20252026-05-25·7 min - #AustralianPropertyAtlas
The Australian Property Decode — Housing Atlas 2026
Eight headline numbers about Australian housing — prices, rents, mortgage stress, auction clearance, the build-to-rent pipeline, the supply shortfall, negative gearing, and migration-driven demand — each decoded into what it actually measures. Synthesises six verified Mirror Briefs (AU-01…AU-06) plus two official-data panels sourced from Treasury, the ATO, the ABS, and NHSAC. The cross-panel finding: every divergence is structural, not error — the confusion lives in the reading.
8decoded headline numbers · AU-01…AU-06 + 2 panels2026-05-21·20 min - #FivePercentDecoded
The 5% Deposit Scheme — What '5%' Measures, and What It Does Not
Under the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme, an eligible first-home buyer can buy a home with a deposit as low as 5% (2% for single parents). '5%' is a minimum deposit ratio: a 5% deposit means a 95% loan, a government guarantee of up to 15% of the property value, and a loan repaid over up to 30 years. Across the scheme's price caps of $400,000 to $1,500,000, 5% is a range of roughly $20,000 to $75,000 — a ratio, not a fixed sum.
5% / 95%deposit / loan split · 5% Deposit Scheme2026-05-21·10 min - #DepositGapDecoded
The Deposit Gap — What 'Years to Save a Deposit' Models, and Why Two Publishers Answer Differently
Two reputable publishers ask the same question and answer it 6.0 years apart: Cotality puts the time to save a 20% deposit at 11.0 years nationally (one median-income household, 15% of gross income, toward the median dwelling); Domain puts it at 5 years and 0 months (a dual-income couple, 20% of post-tax income, toward an entry-level home). Neither is wrong — they model different savers buying different homes.
6.0 yearsgap between two published deposit-timeframe models2026-05-21·10 min - #TwelveTrillion
The $12 Trillion Headline — What Australia's Total Dwelling Value Estimates, and What It Is Not
The ABS Total Value of Dwellings for the December quarter 2025 is $12,307.2 billion — an estimated dwelling count of 11,452,200 multiplied by a modelled mean price of $1,074,700. It is gross: households own about $11,821.3 billion of it; net of their $3,191.0 billion of housing debt, the housing equity they hold is about $8.6 trillion, roughly $3.7 trillion below the headline. The aggregate is notional — not cash, not realisable.
$12,307.2 bntotal dwelling value · ABS Dec qtr 20252026-05-21·10 min - #ApprovalsNotCompletions
Approvals Are Not Completions — Why a Building-Approvals Rebound Reads the Entry Gate, Not the Exit
Building approvals rose 29.7% in February 2026 (revised to 31.0%) and then fell 10.5% in March, to 17,300. A building approval is a council permit — the entry gate of a three-stage pipeline. In the December quarter 2025 dwelling commencements rose 26.1% year-on-year while completions fell 3.9%. Only completions add a home to the housing stock, and they moved the other way.
−3.9%completions YoY · Dec qtr 2025 · ABS2026-05-21·10 min - #AverageHomeLoanDecoded
The Average New Home Loan — What '$724,415' Averages, and What It Hides
The ABS Lending Indicators figure for the March quarter 2026 — $724,415 — is the mean of all new home-loan commitments, blending owner-occupiers ($734,881) and investors ($709,083). It is a mean not a median, a new-loan flow not the existing-mortgage stock, and a national figure laid across a state spread from $481,189 (Northern Territory) to $859,003 (New South Wales): a $378,000 range beneath one headline.
$724,415mean new home loan · ABS March qtr 20262026-05-21·10 min - #VacancyRateDecoded
The Vacancy Rate — What '1.2% Vacant' Counts, and What It Estimates
Australia's rental vacancy rate is a ratio: a counted numerator of vacant rental listings — 35,258 in April 2026 on SQM Research's release — over a modelled denominator, the estimated rental stock interpolated between five-yearly ABS Censuses and never counted monthly. The ABS's 2021 Census separately recorded 1,043,776 unoccupied private dwellings (9.6%) — a stock count of a different thing entirely.
35,258vacant rental listings · April 2026 · SQM2026-05-21·10 min - #HousingShortfallDecoded
The Supply Shortfall — Why a Housing Shortfall Is the Gap Between a Target and a Forecast
NHSAC's State of the Housing System 2026 forecasts 980,000 gross new homes over the National Housing Accord period — 82% of the 1.2 million target, about 220,000 short. The Council frames it as a timing slip: the 1.2 million target reached in September quarter 2030, slightly over a year past the June 2029 deadline. The forecast itself moved: 42,000 higher than the year before.
82%forecast vs target · NHSAC 20262026-05-21·10 min - #BTRPipeline
The Build-to-Rent Pipeline — Why a $40 Billion Pipeline Is Mostly Not Built Yet
BDO's Australian Build to Rent 2026 report puts the national pipeline at ~51,000 apartments / ~$40.1 billion, reported as one blended figure across all maturity stages. Knight Frank's Q3 2025 stage decomposition of a 70,345-unit pipeline finds only 11,944 units (~17%) delivered and operational — roughly two-thirds had not yet started construction. The pipeline is a plan, not a set of keys.
~17%delivered share · Knight Frank Q3 20252026-05-21·10 min - #ClearanceRateQuestion
The Clearance-Rate Question — Why the Monday Rate Is Not the Number Cotality Settles On
Australia's weekly auction clearance rate reaches readers as a single Monday percentage — Cotality's combined-capitals preliminary for the weekend ending 17 May 2026 was 57.5%. Cotality publishes a final rate each Thursday; on the verified weekend ending 19 April 2026 the preliminary 60.7% was revised down to 54.9%, a 5.8-percentage-point gap. The denominator also includes withdrawn and passed-in auctions.
5.8 pppreliminary-to-final revision · 19 Apr 20262026-05-21·9 min - #MortgageStressCohort
The Mortgage-Stress Cohort — Why 1.4 Million in Stress Is Not 1.4 Million Behind
Roy Morgan's 'At Risk' measure placed 1,447,000 mortgage holders — 26.8% — above a modelled repayment-burden threshold in the three months to March 2026. The RBA's observed data to end-2025 records fewer than 1% of housing loans 90+ days in arrears. The two figures sit roughly twenty-five-fold apart because they measure different things: a modelled estimate and an observed count.
~25×modelled stress vs observed arrears · March 20262026-05-21·10 min - #RentTwoWays
The Rent, Two Ways — Why the Advertised-Rent Headline Is the New Tenant's Number
Australia measures rent two ways: advertised-rent indices track newly listed tenancies (the flow); the ABS CPI rents component tracks the whole occupied rental stock, sitting tenants included. For the year to March 2026, Cotality put advertised rent growth at +5.7% and the ABS put the whole-stock figure at +3.7% — both rising, roughly two percentage points apart. The headline almost always measures the new tenant.
+5.7% / +3.7%advertised flow vs whole-stock · yr to March 20262026-05-21·10 min - #IndexDivergence
The Index Divergence — Why Australia's House-Price Numbers Don't Agree
Australia has three private house-price indices — Cotality (hedonic, daily), PropTrack (hybrid, monthly), and Domain (stratified median, quarterly) — and they routinely disagree. For March 2026 the two that report monthly put national growth at +0.7% and +0.3%: the same market, the same month, roughly 2.3 times apart. The one official ABS price index was discontinued in 2021.
2.3×Cotality vs PropTrack · national March 20262026-05-21·10 min