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RAOSCAFF

The Record · United Kingdom

United Kingdom. Every lock, every score.

16 forecasts on United Kingdom, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 5 resolved — 5 hit, 0 miss.

Locks16open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate100%5 hit · 0 missMost recent resolutionHitP-122 · 5 Aug 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

September 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United Kingdom resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-119Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.9318 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

October 20265 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United Kingdom resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-189Tesco H1 2026/27 group salesTesco H1 2026/27 group sales ≥£32.5bn (£16.83bn booked in Q1) — ~0.938 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-146UK September 2026 CPIUK Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.9221 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-304Hindustan Unilever Q2 FY2027 EBITDA marginHUL Q2 FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 22.0% (guided 22.5-23.5%; revenue AND the DIRECTION of profit conflict across sources, margin does not) — ~0.9223 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-209Reckitt FY2026 Core LFL floorReckitt keeps FY2026 Core LFL guidance floor ≥4% at Q3 (Core, not group LFL) — ~0.8827 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-219HSBC 9M 2026 revenueHSBC 9M 2026 constant-currency revenue ex-notables ≥$54bn ($38.2bn booked in H1) — ~0.9327 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked

February 20274 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United Kingdom resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-218Diageo H1 FY2027 organic net salesDiageo H1 FY27 organic net sales growth ≥−5% (decline-bounded floor; organic not reported) — ~0.902 Feb 2027locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-252Unilever FY2026 underlying sales growthUnilever FY2026 UNDERLYING sales growth >= 3.5% (guided within 4-6%; H1 4.8% with 4.2pts volume) — ~0.9211 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-278RELX FY2026 profit growth vs revenue growthRELX FY2026 UNDERLYING adjusted operating profit growth EXCEEDS underlying revenue growth (relative lock — RELX guided a relationship, not a number) — ~0.9311 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-273LSEG FY2026 organic revenue growthLSEG FY2026 TOTAL ORGANIC revenue growth >= 6.0% at CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 7.0-7.5%; NOT subscription growth, guided ~6.5%, which straddles this floor) — ~0.9225 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

May 20271 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United Kingdom resolving in May 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-290Experian FY2027 organic revenue growthExperian FY2027 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 5.0% (guidance 6-8% maintained; Q1 was +10% actual / +8% cc / +7% organic; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027) — ~0.9219 May 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

August 20261 lock resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United Kingdom resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-122Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 revenueArm FQ1 2027 revenue ≥ $1.21bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Arm fiscal-Q1 FY27 revenue $1.289bn, >=$1.21bn.5 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit

July 20264 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United Kingdom resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-19The Open 2026 (golf field simulation)Scheffler 15.8% win / 60% top-5 — 100k-tournament Monte-Carlo (field 43.3%)HIT (calibrated) - Scheffler finished T4, meeting the 60% top-5 and 86% top-10 calls; and the brief's explicit signal that the field (43.3%) was the likeliest winner held as longshot Ryan Fox won. The locked win prob was only 15.8%.19 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-14Wimbledon men's singlesChampion is NOT Alcaraz (withdrew, not in draw)HIT - the champion was NOT Alcaraz: Jannik Sinner beat Alexander Zverev to retain the title.12 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-18Wimbledon 2026 men's (draw simulation)Sinner ~51% title (sim 41% / market 58%) — 50k-draw Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Sinner (locked ~51%) won the title, defending his crown.12 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-13F1 — Antonelli's title leadStill standings leader after the British GPHIT - Antonelli remained championship leader after the British GP (Leclerc won; Antonelli P16/no points after a wheel-shield failure); lead trimmed to 25 pts over Russell. Criterion = still leader, TRUE.5 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit

— Intelligence on United Kingdom

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