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RAOSCAFF

The Record · Japan

Japan. Every lock, every score.

10 forecasts on Japan, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 2 resolved — 2 hit, 0 miss.

Locks10open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate100%2 hit · 0 missMost recent resolutionHitP-38 · 6 Aug 2026 · open →Next criterion due20 Nov 2026P-195 · Japan October 2026 core CPI · open →

November 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on Japan resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-195Japan October 2026 core CPIJapan Oct 2026 core CPI ex-fresh-food ≤3.0% YoY (vs 1.8% July) — ~0.9320 Nov 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked

December 20264 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on Japan resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-203Nikkei 225 year-end 2026Nikkei 225 closes 2026 inside 50,000-82,000 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.9230 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-53Metaplanet 100k-BTC targetMetaplanet holds < 100,000 BTC at year-end — calibrated ~0.8831 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-151USD/JPY year-end 2026USD/JPY closes 2026 inside 140–180 (band, direction not predicted) — ~0.9231 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-193Japan 10-year JGB year-end 2026Japan 10-year JGB yield closes 2026 ≤4.00% (vs 2.86% in mid-Aug; locked against the uptrend) — ~0.9131 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked

January 20271 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on Japan resolving in January 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-99Toyota best-selling automaker 2026Toyota = world's best-selling automaker for calendar 2026 — ~0.9331 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

May 20272 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on Japan resolving in May 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-299Toyota FY2027 operating incomeToyota FY2027 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 3.1tn (forecast RAISED JPY 400bn to 3.4tn on FX while Q1 operating income FELL — threshold between old and new) — ~0.9112 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-247Sony FY2026 operating incomeSony FY2026 consolidated OPERATING INCOME >= JPY 1,600bn (guidance raised to JPY 1,720bn; Q1 carried ~JPY 80bn one-off tariff refunds) — ~0.9014 May 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

August 20261 lock resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on Japan resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-38Nintendo Switch 2 unitsSwitch 2 cumulative units shipped ≥ 22.0M at Q1 FY27 — ~0.72HIT - Switch 2 lifetime units 23.68M at Q1 FY27 (Jun 30), >=22.0M.6 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit

July 20261 lock resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on Japan resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-91Bank of Japan July 2026 decisionBoJ holds policy rate at 1.0% at July 2026 meeting — ~0.85HIT - the BoJ held the policy rate at 1.0% (8-1) at the July meeting.31 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit

— Intelligence on Japan

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