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RAOSCAFF

The Record · India

India. Every lock, every score.

48 forecasts on India, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 7 resolved — 5 hit, 2 miss.

Locks48open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate71%5 hit · 2 missMost recent resolutionMissP-22 · 31 Aug 2026 · open →Next criterion due3 Oct 2026P-220 · Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUM · open →

October 202612 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-220Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUMBajaj Finance Q2 FY27 consolidated AUM ≥₹5.6 lakh crore (vs ₹5,46,944cr at Q1) — ~0.943 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-221ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPIICICI Lombard Q2 FY27 GDPI ≥₹7,500cr (premium not profit; GDPI not GPW) — ~0.9315 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-325Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenueWipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenue >= US$2.50bn (guidance US$2.574-2.627bn, a ONE-QUARTER-AHEAD absolute dollar range; contrast P-319 HCLTech's full-year % guide) — ~0.9316 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-317Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOMEAxis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOME >= INR 13,800 crore (Q1 NII INR 14,646cr; profit +22.5% was driven by provisions FALLING 43.7% while GNPA rose 1.23%→1.28%) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-305UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volumesUltraTech Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED sales volumes >= 36.0 Mt (Q1 41.31 Mt; domestic 39.2 Mt is 2.1 Mt lower and EXCLUDED; Q2 is the monsoon quarter) — ~0.9022 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-334Havells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUEHavells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS >= INR 5,600 crore (Q1 INR 6,518cr but Q1 is the SUMMER COOLING PEAK — 14% buffer; PAT fell 16.64% on doubled A&P spend) — ~0.9122 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-216IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenueIndiGo Q2 FY27 revenue from operations ≥₹19,000cr (seasonal trough; revenue not profit) — ~0.9223 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-304Hindustan Unilever Q2 FY2027 EBITDA marginHUL Q2 FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 22.0% (guided 22.5-23.5%; revenue AND the DIRECTION of profit conflict across sources, margin does not) — ~0.9223 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-329Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUENestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE >= INR 5,900 crore (Q1 INR 6,378.18cr; +25.16% was the fastest in FORTY quarters — so we lock the LEVEL, not the rate; profit reported as both INR 958.68cr and INR 975cr) — ~0.9223 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-222SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APESBI Life Q2 FY27 APE ≥₹4,800cr (quarter alone; APE not GWP or VoNB) — ~0.9324 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-232Dr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 revenue from operationsDr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 7,400 crore (LEVEL locked — sources conflict on the YoY rate) — ~0.9324 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-298Maruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 sales volumesMaruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 TOTAL SALES VOLUMES >= 620,000 units (Q1 682,724; rupee revenue AND profit both conflict across sources so VOLUMES are locked) — ~0.9130 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

November 202614 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-172India October 2026 GSTIndia Oct 2026 gross GST ≥₹1.90 lakh crore (gross, not net of refunds) — ~0.931 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-223Muthoot Q2 FY2027 loan AUMMuthoot Q2 FY27 consolidated TOTAL loan AUM ≥₹1.95 lakh crore (not gold-only, not standalone) — ~0.941 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-296Bharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 revenueBharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= Rs 55,000 crore (Q1 Rs 58,539cr; EBITDA vs EBITDAaL differ ~Rs 3,800cr so revenue is locked) — ~0.925 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-310SBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profitSBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profit >= INR 19,000 crore (Q1 standalone INR 21,121cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 24,113cr — both reported as net profit) — ~0.915 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-233Max Healthcare Q2 FY2027 network gross revenueMax Healthcare Q2 FY2027 NETWORK GROSS REVENUE ≥ Rs 2,850 crore (network line, NOT the consolidated line ~Rs 600cr lower) — ~0.946 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-302Titan Q2 FY2027 consolidated total incomeTitan Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED TOTAL INCOME >= Rs 18,000 crore (Q1 Rs 20,753cr on Akshaya Tritiya; jewellery segment Rs 18,253cr sits beside the threshold and is EXCLUDED) — ~0.916 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-327Hero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDAHero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDA >= INR 1,450 crore (Q1 EBITDA INR 1,727cr; profit reported BOTH down 17% and up 29%; the 14-16% margin band is MEDIUM-TERM, not FY27 guidance) — ~0.906 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-335Power Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profitPower Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profit >= INR 3,200 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 3,598cr vs standalone INR 3,411cr; income ROSE while profit FELL 0.9%) — ~0.929 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-318NTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PATNTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PAT >= INR 4,800 crore (Q1 standalone INR 5,342cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 6,896cr; the 9,557 MW FY27 capacity target could not be pinned to a basis) — ~0.9110 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-326Tata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDATata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 6,000 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 9,370cr but India STANDALONE INR 9,409cr — standalone HIGHER; Netherlands EUR 4m on EUR 1.4bn; war cost INR 1,200cr) — ~0.9011 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-311Jaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenueJaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenue >= GBP 5.0bn (Q1 GBP 6.0bn, wholesales -10%, disclosed supply disruption; Tata Motors Q1 PAT reported as BOTH INR 775cr and INR 900cr) — ~0.8912 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-234Samvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenueSamvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 33,000 crore (Q1 record Rs 35,243.8cr) — ~0.9213 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-341Apollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenueApollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue >= INR 6,500 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 7,043cr vs Healthcare Services INR 3,567cr; PAT growth reported as BOTH +34% and +38.4%) — ~0.9213 Nov 2026locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-342Novelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDANovelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= US$400m (Q1 US$516m; parent Hindalco group EBITDA INR 14,989cr +73% on record aluminium margins was DECLINED as an LME bet; EBITDA growth reported as both +24% and +37%) — ~0.9013 Nov 2026locked 4 Sep 2026Locked

December 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-102Nifty 50 year-end 2026India Nifty 50 closes 2026 ≥ 22,000 (vs ~24,022 spot) — ~0.8031 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

April 20272 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in April 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-337JSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel productionJSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel production >= 25.0 Mt (guidance ~28-29 Mt but Q1 annualises to 26.4 Mt — locked BELOW the run rate; correlated with P-326, disclosed) — ~0.918 Apr 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-319HCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growthHCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growth >= 0.5% (guidance 1-4% RETAINED; Q1 was +2.6% YoY and −0.5% QoQ in cc, +3.0% and −0.9% in USD) — ~0.9122 Apr 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

May 202712 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in May 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-344Ambuja Cements capacity at end-FY2027Ambuja Cements CEMENT CAPACITY at end-FY2027 >= 115 MTPA (109 MTPA today, 119 MTPA targeted, trial production commenced; Q1 volume FELL 14% so the 8% volume guidance was declined per the P-328 reasoning) — ~0.913 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-336Marico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUEMarico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= INR 14,000 crore (stated goal to cross INR 15,000cr; Q1 INR 3,957cr; domestic volume +11% was a 20-quarter high so we lock the LEVEL) — ~0.924 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-312Adani Ports FY2027 EBITDAAdani Ports FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 23,000 crore (guidance INR 25,000-26,000cr maintained with H1 reassessment flagged; Q1 +19% but domestic volume +2%) — ~0.915 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-333Trent total store count at 31 Mar 2027Trent NET total store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 1,350 (1,312 at 30 Jun 2026; +20 net in Q1 while DMart added 3; profit growth reported as 22%, 23.5% AND 26%) — ~0.916 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-320Avenue Supermarts store count at 31 Mar 2027Avenue Supermarts NET DMart store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 515 (503 at 30 Jun 2026; only 3 added in Q1, fewest in 12 quarters; closures count against it) — ~0.908 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-309Asian Paints FY2027 decorative volume growthAsian Paints FY2027 DECORATIVE VOLUME growth >= 5.0% (guidance 8-10% maintained; Q1 volume 9.0% vs VALUE 16.6% — NOT value, NOT revenue) — ~0.9010 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-297Larsen & Toubro FY2027 revenue growthL&T FY2027 GROUP revenue growth >= 7% (guidance 10-12% MAINTAINED but Q1 delivered 7% — threshold set at the delivered rate, not the guided one) — ~0.9111 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-340Indian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growthIndian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 7.0% (double-digit guidance reaffirmed; Q1 +15%, a 17th straight record; SEASONALITY INVERTED — Apr-Jun is the WEAKEST quarter) — ~0.9211 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-321Britannia FY2027 EBITDA marginBritannia FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 15.0% (Q1 16.81% vs 16.38%; Q1 revenue reported as BOTH INR 5,000cr/+8.17% and INR 4,964cr/+9.5%, irreconcilable) — ~0.9112 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-328Cipla FY2027 EBITDA marginCipla FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 16.0% (guidance 18.5-20% MAINTAINED while Q1 printed 16.7%, down 881bp YoY from 25.56%; locked BELOW guidance deliberately) — ~0.9114 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-313Sun Pharma FY2027 consolidated revenue growthSun Pharma FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 5.0% YoY in INR (guidance is the PHRASE 'high single digits', not a number; Q1 +10.46%) — ~0.9220 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-343ONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil productionONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil production >= 17.0 MMT (Q1 4.452 MMT; profit +112% to INR 17,034cr purely on realisation US$66.13→US$99.45/bbl with volumes FLAT — earnings declined as a price call) — ~0.9227 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked

August 20263 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-22India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandMISS — locked the 6.3–7.3% band; MoSPI printed 7.8% YoY for Q1 FY27 on 31 Aug 2026 (real GDP Rs 81.36 lakh crore vs Rs 75.46 lakh crore). Above the band, so a miss under our own band rule even though the direction was right — the same failure as P-05. The band was set around the RBI's own 7% projection and the economy beat it: manufacturing 9.2%, real GVA +8.2%. We were not bearish, we were insufficiently bullish, and a band miss is a miss. We published it.31 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Miss
P-04RBI August MPCHold 5.25% (0.91) · Neutral (0.95) · 6-0 (0.72)HIT (all three partitions) - RBI held repo 5.25%, retained the Neutral stance, unanimous 6-0.5 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-68Reliance Q1 FY27 revenueReliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grows ≥ 5% YoYHIT - Reliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue +24.5% YoY, >=5%.5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit

July 20264 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-93Infosys Q1 FY27Infosys keeps FY27 CC guidance floor ≥1.5% + Q1 rev ≥$4.9bn — ~0.85HIT - Infosys kept its FY27 CC growth floor at 1.5% (narrowed to 1.5-3.0%) and Q1 revenue was $5.08bn (>=$4.9bn).23 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-35HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 PATQ1 FY27 standalone PAT > ₹18,155cr one-off-inflated base — ~0.60HIT - HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 standalone PAT ~INR 19,060cr, >INR 18,155cr.20 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-03India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)MISS - locked 4.6% (above the ~4.5% consensus); India June CPI printed 4.38%, below both.13 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Miss
P-43TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenueQ1 FY27 consolidated USD revenue in $7.55–7.85BHIT - TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenue ~$7.58bn, inside $7.55-7.85bn.9 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit

— Intelligence on India

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