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RAOSCAFF

The Record · India

India. Every lock, every score.

55 forecasts on India, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 18 resolved — 15 hit, 3 miss.

Locks55open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate83%15 hit · 3 missMost recent resolutionHitP-222 · 24 Oct 2026 · open →Next criterion due5 Nov 2026P-296 · Bharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 revenue · open →

October 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-298Maruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 sales volumesMaruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 TOTAL SALES VOLUMES >= 620,000 units (Q1 682,724; rupee revenue AND profit both conflict across sources so VOLUMES are locked) — ~0.9130 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

November 202614 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-172India October 2026 GSTIndia Oct 2026 gross GST ≥₹1.90 lakh crore (gross, not net of refunds) — ~0.931 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-223Muthoot Q2 FY2027 loan AUMMuthoot Q2 FY27 consolidated TOTAL loan AUM ≥₹1.95 lakh crore (not gold-only, not standalone) — ~0.941 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-296Bharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 revenueBharti Airtel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= Rs 55,000 crore (Q1 Rs 58,539cr; EBITDA vs EBITDAaL differ ~Rs 3,800cr so revenue is locked) — ~0.925 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-310SBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profitSBI Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE net profit >= INR 19,000 crore (Q1 standalone INR 21,121cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 24,113cr — both reported as net profit) — ~0.915 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-233Max Healthcare Q2 FY2027 network gross revenueMax Healthcare Q2 FY2027 NETWORK GROSS REVENUE ≥ Rs 2,850 crore (network line, NOT the consolidated line ~Rs 600cr lower) — ~0.946 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-302Titan Q2 FY2027 consolidated total incomeTitan Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED TOTAL INCOME >= Rs 18,000 crore (Q1 Rs 20,753cr on Akshaya Tritiya; jewellery segment Rs 18,253cr sits beside the threshold and is EXCLUDED) — ~0.916 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-327Hero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDAHero MotoCorp Q2 FY2027 EBITDA >= INR 1,450 crore (Q1 EBITDA INR 1,727cr; profit reported BOTH down 17% and up 29%; the 14-16% margin band is MEDIUM-TERM, not FY27 guidance) — ~0.906 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-335Power Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profitPower Grid Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED net profit >= INR 3,200 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 3,598cr vs standalone INR 3,411cr; income ROSE while profit FELL 0.9%) — ~0.929 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-318NTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PATNTPC Q2 FY2027 STANDALONE PAT >= INR 4,800 crore (Q1 standalone INR 5,342cr vs CONSOLIDATED INR 6,896cr; the 9,557 MW FY27 capacity target could not be pinned to a basis) — ~0.9110 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-326Tata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDATata Steel Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 6,000 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 9,370cr but India STANDALONE INR 9,409cr — standalone HIGHER; Netherlands EUR 4m on EUR 1.4bn; war cost INR 1,200cr) — ~0.9011 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-311Jaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenueJaguar Land Rover Q2 FY2027 revenue >= GBP 5.0bn (Q1 GBP 6.0bn, wholesales -10%, disclosed supply disruption; Tata Motors Q1 PAT reported as BOTH INR 775cr and INR 900cr) — ~0.8912 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-234Samvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenueSamvardhana Motherson Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 33,000 crore (Q1 record Rs 35,243.8cr) — ~0.9213 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-341Apollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenueApollo Hospitals Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue >= INR 6,500 crore (Q1 consolidated INR 7,043cr vs Healthcare Services INR 3,567cr; PAT growth reported as BOTH +34% and +38.4%) — ~0.9213 Nov 2026locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-342Novelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDANovelis Q2 FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= US$400m (Q1 US$516m; parent Hindalco group EBITDA INR 14,989cr +73% on record aluminium margins was DECLINED as an LME bet; EBITDA growth reported as both +24% and +37%) — ~0.9013 Nov 2026locked 4 Sep 2026Locked

December 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-102Nifty 50 year-end 2026India Nifty 50 closes 2026 ≥ 22,000 (vs ~24,022 spot) — ~0.8031 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

April 20275 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in April 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-351Hindustan Zinc FY2027 MINED METAL productionHindustan Zinc FY2027 MINED METAL >= 1,100 kt (guidance 1,150 kt ±10; H1 a record 539 kt; MINED not refined; tonnes, not the zinc price) — ~0.915 Apr 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-352Jubilant FoodWorks DOMINO'S INDIA store count at 31 Mar 2027Jubilant FoodWorks DOMINO'S INDIA net stores at 31 Mar 2027 >= 2,670 (2,455 at FY26 end, 2,601 at 30 Sep; needs 69 net in H2; group total excluded) — ~0.917 Apr 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-337JSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel productionJSW Steel FY2027 CONSOLIDATED crude steel production >= 25.0 Mt (guidance ~28-29 Mt but Q1 annualises to 26.4 Mt — locked BELOW the run rate; correlated with P-326, disclosed) — ~0.918 Apr 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-359Adani Green Energy OPERATIONAL CAPACITY at 31 Mar 2027Adani Green Energy OPERATIONAL CAPACITY at 31 Mar 2027 >= 22,000 MW (SUB-GUIDANCE FLOOR: 4.5-5 GW target conditional on a delayed transmission corridor; 20,763 MW at 30 Sep) — ~0.8810 Apr 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-319HCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growthHCLTech FY2027 CONSTANT-CURRENCY revenue growth >= 0.5% (guidance 1-4% RETAINED; Q1 was +2.6% YoY and −0.5% QoQ in cc, +3.0% and −0.9% in USD) — ~0.9122 Apr 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked

May 202716 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in May 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-344Ambuja Cements capacity at end-FY2027Ambuja Cements CEMENT CAPACITY at end-FY2027 >= 115 MTPA (109 MTPA today, 119 MTPA targeted, trial production commenced; Q1 volume FELL 14% so the 8% volume guidance was declined per the P-328 reasoning) — ~0.913 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-336Marico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUEMarico FY2027 CONSOLIDATED REVENUE >= INR 14,000 crore (stated goal to cross INR 15,000cr; Q1 INR 3,957cr; domestic volume +11% was a 20-quarter high so we lock the LEVEL) — ~0.924 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-312Adani Ports FY2027 EBITDAAdani Ports FY2027 CONSOLIDATED EBITDA >= INR 23,000 crore (guidance INR 25,000-26,000cr maintained with H1 reassessment flagged; Q1 +19% but domestic volume +2%) — ~0.915 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-353CreditAccess Grameen AUM at 31 Mar 2027CreditAccess Grameen AUM at 31 Mar 2027 >= INR 33,500 crore (SUB-GUIDANCE FLOOR: 20-25% guide implies INR 35,508cr but H1 grew only 4.6%) — ~0.895 May 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-333Trent total store count at 31 Mar 2027Trent NET total store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 1,350 (1,312 at 30 Jun 2026; +20 net in Q1 while DMart added 3; profit growth reported as 22%, 23.5% AND 26%) — ~0.916 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-320Avenue Supermarts store count at 31 Mar 2027Avenue Supermarts NET DMart store count at 31 Mar 2027 >= 515 (503 at 30 Jun 2026; only 3 added in Q1, fewest in 12 quarters; closures count against it) — ~0.908 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-309Asian Paints FY2027 decorative volume growthAsian Paints FY2027 DECORATIVE VOLUME growth >= 5.0% (guidance 8-10% maintained; Q1 volume 9.0% vs VALUE 16.6% — NOT value, NOT revenue) — ~0.9010 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-350Godrej Properties FY2027 BOOKING VALUEGodrej Properties FY2027 BOOKING VALUE >= INR 35,500 crore (guidance INR 39,000cr; H1 banked INR 16,659cr; H2 needs INR 18,841cr vs INR 18,584cr a year earlier; bookings not revenue) — ~0.9010 May 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-297Larsen & Toubro FY2027 revenue growthL&T FY2027 GROUP revenue growth >= 7% (guidance 10-12% MAINTAINED but Q1 delivered 7% — threshold set at the delivered rate, not the guided one) — ~0.9111 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-340Indian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growthIndian Hotels FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 7.0% (double-digit guidance reaffirmed; Q1 +15%, a 17th straight record; SEASONALITY INVERTED — Apr-Jun is the WEAKEST quarter) — ~0.9211 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-321Britannia FY2027 EBITDA marginBritannia FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 15.0% (Q1 16.81% vs 16.38%; Q1 revenue reported as BOTH INR 5,000cr/+8.17% and INR 4,964cr/+9.5%, irreconcilable) — ~0.9112 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-328Cipla FY2027 EBITDA marginCipla FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 16.0% (guidance 18.5-20% MAINTAINED while Q1 printed 16.7%, down 881bp YoY from 25.56%; locked BELOW guidance deliberately) — ~0.9114 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-313Sun Pharma FY2027 consolidated revenue growthSun Pharma FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue growth >= 5.0% YoY in INR (guidance is the PHRASE 'high single digits', not a number; Q1 +10.46%) — ~0.9220 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-358Bharat Electronics FY2027 STANDALONE REVENUEBharat Electronics FY2027 STANDALONE REVENUE from operations >= INR 30,500 crore (~15% growth target on INR 27,479.63cr; H1 +26%; H2 needs only +2.2%) — ~0.9020 May 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked
P-343ONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil productionONGC FY2027 STANDALONE crude oil production >= 17.0 MMT (Q1 4.452 MMT; profit +112% to INR 17,034cr purely on realisation US$66.13→US$99.45/bbl with volumes FLAT — earnings declined as a price call) — ~0.9227 May 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-360India central government CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FY2026-27India central CAPITAL EXPENDITURE FY2026-27 >= INR 11,30,000 crore on CGA provisional actuals (BE INR 12,21,821cr; FY26 RE came in 2.3% below BE; NOT effective capex) — ~0.8931 May 2027locked 5 Nov 2026Locked

October 202611 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-222SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APESBI Life Q2 FY27 APE ≥₹4,800cr (quarter alone; APE not GWP or VoNB) — ~0.93HIT, with a basis note — locked SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APE of at least ₹4,800 crore for the quarter alone. SBI Life publishes APE year to date only: H1 ₹11,750 crore less Q1 ₹5,380 crore gives about ₹6,370 crore for Q2, 33% above the floor. No reading of the published figures produces a miss.24 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Hit
P-232Dr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 revenue from operationsDr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 7,400 crore (LEVEL locked — sources conflict on the YoY rate) — ~0.93HIT — locked Dr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenue from operations of at least ₹7,400 crore (a level lock, because sources conflicted on the YoY rate). Dr Reddy's reported ₹8,697.8 crore (IFRS headline ₹8,670.8 crore), above the floor on either basis.24 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Hit
P-216IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenueIndiGo Q2 FY27 revenue from operations ≥₹19,000cr (seasonal trough; revenue not profit) — ~0.92HIT — locked IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenue from operations of at least ₹19,000 crore in the seasonal trough. InterGlobe Aviation reported ₹23,363.8 crore on 29 Oct 2026. A revenue lock, not a profit lock.23 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-304Hindustan Unilever Q2 FY2027 EBITDA marginHUL Q2 FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 22.0% (guided 22.5-23.5%; revenue AND the DIRECTION of profit conflict across sources, margin does not) — ~0.92HIT — locked Hindustan Unilever's Q2 FY2027 EBITDA margin at or above 22.0%. HUL reported a consolidated EBITDA margin of 22.6% on 28 Oct 2026 (22.43% on the same basis as the Q1 22.76% the lock cited): the narrowest margin in this batch, 0.4-0.6 points clear.23 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-329Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUENestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE >= INR 5,900 crore (Q1 INR 6,378.18cr; +25.16% was the fastest in FORTY quarters — so we lock the LEVEL, not the rate; profit reported as both INR 958.68cr and INR 975cr) — ~0.92HIT — locked Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 revenue of at least ₹5,900 crore, a level lock chosen because Q1's +25% was a forty-quarter record. Nestlé India reported revenue from operations of ₹6,788.34 crore.23 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-305UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volumesUltraTech Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED sales volumes >= 36.0 Mt (Q1 41.31 Mt; domestic 39.2 Mt is 2.1 Mt lower and EXCLUDED; Q2 is the monsoon quarter) — ~0.90HIT — locked UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volume of at least 36.0 Mt in the monsoon quarter. UltraTech reported 38.22 Mt, measured on the same basis as Q1's 41.31 Mt. Domestic grey cement alone was 35.94 Mt, just under the floor; the criterion named consolidated volume and excluded the domestic line.22 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-334Havells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUEHavells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS >= INR 5,600 crore (Q1 INR 6,518cr but Q1 is the SUMMER COOLING PEAK — 14% buffer; PAT fell 16.64% on doubled A&P spend) — ~0.91HIT — locked Havells India Q2 FY2027 revenue from operations of at least ₹5,600 crore, buffered 14% below a summer-peak Q1. Havells reported consolidated revenue from operations of ₹6,431.99 crore (standalone ₹6,416.62 crore).22 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-317Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOMEAxis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOME >= INR 13,800 crore (Q1 NII INR 14,646cr; profit +22.5% was driven by provisions FALLING 43.7% while GNPA rose 1.23%→1.28%) — ~0.92HIT — locked Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 net interest income of at least ₹13,800 crore. Axis reported standalone NII of ₹15,371 crore, 11.4% above the floor. Locked on NII rather than profit because provisions, not the bank, were driving profit.20 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-325Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenueWipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenue >= US$2.50bn (guidance US$2.574-2.627bn, a ONE-QUARTER-AHEAD absolute dollar range; contrast P-319 HCLTech's full-year % guide) — ~0.93HIT — locked Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT services segment revenue of at least US$2.50bn. Wipro reported US$2,611.5m, inside its own US$2.574-2.627bn one-quarter-ahead guidance.16 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-221ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPIICICI Lombard Q2 FY27 GDPI ≥₹7,500cr (premium not profit; GDPI not GPW) — ~0.93MISS — locked ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPI of at least ₹7,500 crore (~0.93). The company reported GDPI of ₹67.92bn (₹6,792 crore) on 14 Oct 2026, up only 3.0% against 7.0% for the industry as crop and mass health contracted. It also misses on the n basis (₹72.84bn). Published as a miss.15 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Miss
P-220Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUMBajaj Finance Q2 FY27 consolidated AUM ≥₹5.6 lakh crore (vs ₹5,46,944cr at Q1) — ~0.94HIT — locked Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 consolidated AUM of at least ₹5,60,000 crore. The 3 Oct 2026 business update reported about ₹5,84,750 crore (the later results deck: ₹5,84,624 crore), above the floor on either figure.3 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Hit

August 20263 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-22India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandMISS — locked the 6.3–7.3% band; MoSPI printed 7.8% YoY for Q1 FY27 on 31 Aug 2026 (real GDP Rs 81.36 lakh crore vs Rs 75.46 lakh crore). Above the band, so a miss under our own band rule even though the direction was right — the same failure as P-05. The band was set around the RBI's own 7% projection and the economy beat it: manufacturing 9.2%, real GVA +8.2%. We were not bearish, we were insufficiently bullish, and a band miss is a miss. We published it.31 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Miss
P-04RBI August MPCHold 5.25% (0.91) · Neutral (0.95) · 6-0 (0.72)HIT (all three partitions) - RBI held repo 5.25%, retained the Neutral stance, unanimous 6-0.5 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-68Reliance Q1 FY27 revenueReliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue grows ≥ 5% YoYHIT - Reliance Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue +24.5% YoY, >=5%.5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit

July 20264 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on India resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-93Infosys Q1 FY27Infosys keeps FY27 CC guidance floor ≥1.5% + Q1 rev ≥$4.9bn — ~0.85HIT - Infosys kept its FY27 CC growth floor at 1.5% (narrowed to 1.5-3.0%) and Q1 revenue was $5.08bn (>=$4.9bn).23 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-35HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 PATQ1 FY27 standalone PAT > ₹18,155cr one-off-inflated base — ~0.60HIT - HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 standalone PAT ~INR 19,060cr, >INR 18,155cr.20 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-03India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)MISS - locked 4.6% (above the ~4.5% consensus); India June CPI printed 4.38%, below both.13 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Miss
P-43TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenueQ1 FY27 consolidated USD revenue in $7.55–7.85BHIT - TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenue ~$7.58bn, inside $7.55-7.85bn.9 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit

— Intelligence on India

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