The Record · New Zealand
New Zealand. Every lock, every score.
22 forecasts on New Zealand, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. None has reached its resolution date yet; nothing to grade.
Locks22open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate—22 pending
Most recent resolution—nothing resolved yet
Next criterion due11 Nov 2026P-292 · Mainfreight H1 FY2027 revenue · open →November 20262 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-292 | Mainfreight H1 FY2027 revenueMainfreight H1 FY2027 group REVENUE >= NZ$2.60bn as reported (LEVEL-anchored — no numeric guidance; FY26 was NZ$5.38bn) — ~0.91 | 11 Nov 2026locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-241 | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare H1 FY2027 operating revenueF&P Healthcare H1 FY2027 OPERATING REVENUE >= NZ$1.18bn (guides ~NZ$1.24bn; reported NZD, no FX restatement) — ~0.92 | 25 Nov 2026locked 30 Aug 2026 | Locked |
February 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-293 | Summerset FY2026 group home deliveriesSummerset FY2026 GROUP home deliveries >= 650 incl. Australia (guidance 700-800; NZ-only guidance CUT by 50 to 600-650 — the criterion names GROUP) — ~0.91 | 25 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
May 20273 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-242 | Infratil FY2027 proportionate operational EBITDAFInfratil FY2027 PROPORTIONATE OPERATIONAL EBITDAF excl. corporate costs >= NZ$1,250m (guidance NZ$1,300-1,400m) — ~0.91 | 20 May 2027locked 30 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-301 | Ryman Healthcare FY2027 build deliveryRyman FY2027 BUILD DELIVERY >= 150 units and beds (guidance 157-168; locked on countable output because FY26 was a NZ$171.3m loss driven by revaluations) — ~0.90 | 21 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-331 | Turners Automotive FY2027 NORMALISED NPBTTurners Automotive FY2027 NORMALISED NPBT >= NZ$58m (NZ$65m target pulled forward from FY2028 into FY2027 and HELD; FY26 record NZ$63.2m) — ~0.91 | 24 May 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
August 202716 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-244 | Contact Energy FY2027 EBITDAFContact Energy FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (FY26 EBITDAF NZ$1,011m; floor set robust to the EBITDAF vs 'normalised EBITDA' label mismatch) — ~0.90 | 16 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-339 | Heartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPATHeartland Group FY2027 UNDERLYING NPAT >= NZ$92m (guidance is a FLOOR — 'at least NZ$102m' — EXCLUDING TSB transaction costs; FY26 underlying NZ$90.4m vs REPORTED NZ$93.2m) — ~0.91 | 17 Aug 2027locked 4 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-246 | Spark New Zealand FY2027 adjusted EBITDAISpark NZ FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAI >= NZ$980m (guidance NZ$1,010-1,080m; guidance credibility explicitly discounted) — ~0.89 | 18 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-306 | Fletcher Building FY2027 EBIT ex-propertyFletcher FY2027 EBIT before significant items EXCLUDING property sales >= NZ$300m (FY26 NZ$362m ex-property vs NZ$414m incl; management WARNED on 1H FY27) — ~0.88 | 18 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-243 | Auckland Airport FY2027 underlying profit after taxAuckland Airport FY2027 UNDERLYING PROFIT AFTER TAX >= NZ$280m (guidance NZ$290-330m; underlying not statutory) — ~0.90 | 19 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-294 | EBOS Group FY2027 underlying EBITDAEBOS FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= A$610m in AUSTRALIAN dollars (guidance A$635-655m; NZ-domiciled but guides in AUD) — ~0.91 | 19 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-332 | Vulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDAVulcan Steel FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$120m (FY26 NZ$130m; FY27 gets TWELVE months of Roofing Industries vs nine; NZ$130m EBITDA became NZ$18m NPAT) — ~0.91 | 19 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-316 | Vector FY2027 adjusted EBITDAVector FY2027 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= NZ$500m (guidance NZ$540-560m; FY26 NZ$482m on the ComCom price reset; chosen as the UNCORRELATED counterweight to P-244/P-300/P-308) — ~0.91 | 20 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-323 | SkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDASkyCity FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= NZ$150m (FY26 underlying NZ$181.6m vs REPORTED NZ$120.5m, NZ$61m apart; NO FY27 guidance; NZ$30m cost-out targeted) — ~0.90 | 20 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-245 | a2 Milk FY2027 revenuea2 Milk FY2027 total REVENUE >= NZ$2,000m (DERIVED: mid-single-digit guided growth applied to the FY2026 base of NZ$1,974.9m; a rate was guided, not a level) — ~0.91 | 23 Aug 2027locked 30 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-295 | Chorus FY2027 EBITDAChorus FY2027 EBITDA >= NZ$715m (guidance NZ$730-760m; the regulated fibre network under Spark at P-246) — ~0.92 | 23 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-315 | Freightways FY2027 EBITAFreightways FY2027 EBITA >= NZ$160m (NO numeric FY27 guidance; management said 'softer for longer'; FY26 EBITA NZ$181.6m) — ~0.90 | 23 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-324 | Skellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPATSkellerup FY2027 NORMALISED NPAT >= NZ$58m (FY26 NZ$64.2m, a TENTH straight record; net debt <NZ$2m; management sees 'no early signs of slowdown') — ~0.91 | 24 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-300 | Meridian Energy FY2027 EBITDAFMeridian FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$950m (guidance NZ$1,040-1,120m assuming NORMAL hydrology; FY26 NZ$1,051m vs FY25 NZ$611m drought — buffer 8.7% for rainfall) — ~0.89 | 25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-307 | Port of Tauranga FY2027 underlying earningsPort of Tauranga FY2027 UNDERLYING earnings >= NZ$145m (guidance NZ$160-175m; FY26 record NZ$155.3m; Air NZ scouted and DROPPED for withdrawing FY27 guidance) — ~0.91 | 25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-308 | Mercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAFMercury NZ FY2027 EBITDAF >= NZ$980m (guidance is a POINT of NZ$1,075m conditioned on 4.1TWh hydro; FY26 NZ$1,068m; correlated with P-244 and P-300) — ~0.89 | 25 Aug 2027locked 3 Sep 2026 | Locked |
— Intelligence on New Zealand
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