The Record · Switzerland
Switzerland. Every lock, every score.
9 forecasts on Switzerland, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. None has reached its resolution date yet; nothing to grade.
Locks9open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate—9 pending
Most recent resolution—nothing resolved yet
Next criterion due25 Sep 2026P-142 · Swiss National Bank September 2026 · open →September 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-142 | Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.93 | 25 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Locked |
October 20262 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-213 | ABB Q3 2026 revenueABB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$9.0bn (vs $9.5bn in Q2; orders +28%) — ~0.93 | 20 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-231 | Holcim nine-month 2026 net salesHolcim 9M 2026 group NET SALES ≥ CHF 11.5bn (H1 CHF 7.9bn; FY guidance upgraded) — ~0.93 | 30 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026 | Locked |
November 20261 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-196 | Switzerland October 2026 CPISwitzerland Oct 2026 headline annual CPI ≤1.5% (vs 0.4% July) — ~0.94 | 3 Nov 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Locked |
January 20271 lock resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-258 | Roche FY2026 sales growthRoche FY2026 GROUP sales growth >= 3% AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATES (H1 +6% CER vs -2% CHF — opposite signs; level conflict so the RATE is locked) — ~0.92 | 28 Jan 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
February 20274 locks resolving
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-230 | Glencore FY2026 own-sourced copper productionGlencore FY2026 own-sourced copper ≥ 790kt (guidance basis 840kt; tonnes locked, price NOT forecast) — ~0.90 | 3 Feb 2027locked 29 Aug 2026 | Locked |
| P-283 | Givaudan FY2026 like-for-like sales growthGivaudan FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.0% (H1 +3.6% LFL vs -1.7% reported CHF — opposite signs; the 4-6% target is a 2026-2030 AVERAGE, not FY26 guidance) — ~0.91 | 4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-248 | Nestlé FY2026 organic sales growthNestlé FY2026 ORGANIC sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance 3-4%; organic = RIG + pricing, NOT reported sales) — ~0.91 | 18 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |
| P-280 | Zurich Insurance FY2026 business operating profitZurich FY2026 GROUP business operating profit >= USD 9.0bn (record H1 USD 4.8bn; FY2025 USD 8.9bn; buffer sized for hurricane season) — ~0.91 | 18 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026 | Locked |