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RAOSCAFF

The Record · United States

United States. Every lock, every score.

124 forecasts on United States, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 88 resolved — 82 hit, 6 miss.

Locks124open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate93%82 hit · 6 missMost recent resolutionHitP-78 · 29 Oct 2026 · open →Next criterion due5 Nov 2026P-175 · Trade Desk Q3 2026 revenue · open →

October 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-73BitMine ETH treasuryBitMine disclosed ETH holdings ≥ 6,000,000 by Oct 31 — ~0.9031 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

November 202612 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-60ARC Prize 2026 Grand Prize2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize unclaimed (ARC-AGI-2) — ~0.822 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-24US 2026 midterms — SenateRepublicans retain the Senate — calibrated ~0.543 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-44US House 2026 — DemocratsDemocrats win US House majority (≥218) — calibrated ~0.763 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-169Marriott Q3 2026 RevPARMarriott Q3 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth ≥+1.0% (vs +3.4% in Q2) — ~0.913 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-149Constellation FY2026 guidance floorConstellation keeps FY2026 adj operating EPS floor ≥$11.50 at Q3 — ~0.884 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-175Trade Desk Q3 2026 revenueTrade Desk Q3 2026 revenue ≥$600M (below its own slashed ~$650M guide) — ~0.915 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-208Cisco Q1 FY2027 revenueCisco Q1 FY2027 total revenue ≥$17.5bn (guide $18.0-18.2bn) — ~0.9312 Nov 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.9216 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.8717 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.9125 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-238Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE >= USD 4.5bn (the guidance floor held BEFORE August's raise to USD 4.75bn) — ~0.9325 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.7230 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked

December 202616 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.911 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260M21 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.7821 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-end31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.7831 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.8431 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.9731 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 202631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.9731 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked

January 20274 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in January 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-109LA Rams 2026 NFL playoffsLA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — ~0.824 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-86Henry Hub 2026 annual average2026 Henry Hub calendar-year average ≤ $4.25/MMBtu (EIA) — ~0.9015 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.9415 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-79UnitedHealth FY2026 adjusted EPSFY2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $18.25 (guide floor) — calibrated ~0.8231 Jan 2027locked 23 Jun 2026Locked

February 20273 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-31OpenAI revenue run-rateAnnualized run-rate ≥ $30B at end-2026 — ~0.8815 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-64DraftKings FY2026 revenueFY2026 revenue inside $6.5–6.9B guidance band — ~0.8515 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-32TKO Group FY2026 revenueFY2026 total revenue ≥ $5.60B (floor) — ~0.9028 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

October 202622 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-78Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88HIT — locked Mounjaro plus Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue above $14.0bn. Eli Lilly reported Mounjaro $10,723m and Zepbound $5,352m on 29 Oct 2026, a combined $16,075m, 14.8% above the threshold.29 Oct 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Hit
P-173S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $3.80. S&P Global reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.58 on 27 Oct 2026 (GAAP $4.45 not used), 20.5% above the floor.29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-174Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $4.20. Linde reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.59 on 29 Oct 2026, 9.3% above the floor. GAAP EPS of $3.66 would have missed; the criterion named adjusted EPS.29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-192Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 attributable gold production of at least 1.20m oz. Newmont reported 1,302k oz on 22 Oct 2026 (gold sales of 1,211k oz not used), 8.5% above the floor. A production lock, not a gold-price call.29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-148UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of at least $21.0bn. UPS reported $22.9bn on 27 Oct 2026 (segment sum $22,853m), 9.0% above the floor.28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-191PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total payment volume of at least $460bn. PayPal reported $487.1bn on 27 Oct 2026, 5.9% above the floor.28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-239Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.94HIT — locked fiscal Q4 2026 net revenue (after client incentives) of at least $11.0bn. Visa reported $12,139m for the quarter to 30 Sep 2026, +13% YoY, released 27 Oct 2026, 10.4% above the floor.28 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Hit
P-150Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.90HIT — locked a Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio at or below 95%. Chubb reported 84.1% on 20 Oct 2026 (82.6% excluding catastrophe losses, not used), 10.9 points inside the ceiling.27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-158Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 for the peak cruise quarter. Royal Caribbean reported $6.57 on 27 Oct 2026, 31.4% above the floor: a threshold set too low to be in contention.27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-171WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA of at least $1.95bn. WM reported $2,121m on 27 Oct 2026, 8.8% above the floor.27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-188First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 module sales of at least 3.5GW. First Solar's Q3 2026 key quarterly data, published with its 29 Oct 2026 results, shows 4,128MW sold (production of 4,280MW not used), 17.9% above the floor. The results press release itself does not state the volume; the figure is from the company's own results-day schedule, corroborated by its earnings slides.27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-215Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of at least $8.3bn. Comcast reported $9,106m on 22 Oct 2026, 9.7% above the floor.23 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-160Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 steel mill shipments of at least 6.5m tons. Nucor's Steel Mills segment shipped 7,231k tons (Q2: 7,100k) per its 26 Oct 2026 release. Scored on the steel mills segment total the criterion names, not the 5,662k tons shipped to outside customers.22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-161Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked a Q3 2026 reported operating ratio at or below 65%. Union Pacific reported 59.1% on 22 Oct 2026, 5.9 points inside the ceiling. Scored on the reported ratio, not the adjusted 58.8%.22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-170GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $1.75. GE Aerospace reported $2.25 on 20 Oct 2026 (GAAP $2.32 not used), 28.6% above the floor.22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-214Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.94HIT — locked Q3 2026 TOTAL assets under management of at least $1.25tn. Blackstone reported $1,368.3bn at 30 Sep 2026, 9.5% above the floor. On fee-earning AUM ($989.7bn) this would have missed, which is why the criterion named total AUM.22 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-166CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 average daily volume of at least 24m contracts. CME Group reported a third-quarter record of 29.4m (29,445k) on 21 Oct 2026, 22.7% above the floor: a wide floor that was not in contention.21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-212Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total net revenues of at least $6.6bn. Charles Schwab reported a record $7,171m on 15 Oct 2026, +17% YoY.21 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-165Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of at least $2.00. Philip Morris reported $2.36 on 21 Oct 2026, +5.4% YoY.20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-207Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 headline core revenue growth of at least 1.0%, not the ex-respiratory measure. Danaher reported core sales growth of 3.0% on 21 Oct 2026. Danaher now excludes tariff refunds to customers from core growth; counting them gives 2.0%, which also clears the floor.20 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-200SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 revenue of at least $8.5bn. SLB reported $9,449m on 23 Oct 2026, +5% sequentially and 11.2% above the floor.16 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Hit
P-154Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 core FFO of at least $1.45 per diluted share. Prologis reported $1.60 on 15 Oct 2026 (Q3 2025: $1.49), 10.3% above the floor.15 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit

September 202616 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeHIT — locked cumulative US spot-bitcoin-ETF net inflows of at least $45bn at the Q3 close. Summing Farside Investors' daily totals from 11 Jan 2024 to 30 Sep 2026 gives $57.56bn, which reconciles to Farside's printed all-time total once October flows are added. A flows lock, not a bitcoin-price call.30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95HIT — locked an Apple event in the week of 7 Sep with iPhone 18 Pro on sale before 30 Sep. Apple held its event on 9 Sep 2026 and iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale on 18 Sep.30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90MISS — locked the US 10-year Treasury yield closing September 2026 inside 3.75-5.25% (~0.90). FRED DGS10 printed 5.29% for 30 Sep 2026, four basis points above the top of the band; it had been 5.24% two sessions earlier. A band miss is a miss. Published as a miss.30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Miss
P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93HIT — locked a Dodgers 2026 postseason berth. They clinched on 14 Sep 2026 with a 4-1 win at Cincinnati.28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteHIT — locked a new smart-glasses model or hardware capability from the Connect 2026 keynote. On 23 Sep 2026, the Connect keynote day, Meta announced Ray-Ban Meta Audio, Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 3) and new Meta Capri and Meta Nova styles (Meta Newsroom: "Today at Connect, we announced"). Placement on the keynote stage rests on live coverage of the keynote.23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82MISS — locked a Fed hold at 3.50-3.75% (~0.82). On 16 Sep 2026 the FOMC voted 12-0 to RAISE the target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Published as a miss.17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Miss
P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82HIT — locked that General Mills would hold its FY2027 adjusted-EPS guidance floor of $3.00 at Q1. On 23 Sep 2026 it reaffirmed adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00-$3.20. The floor held exactly; the criterion is inclusive.17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-144US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.92HIT — locked a year-on-year rise in US August 2026 retail sales. The Census Bureau's advance estimate on 16 Sep 2026 put retail and food services sales at $773.9bn seasonally adjusted, up 6.0% from August 2025. Scored on the first-published advance figure, not the later revision.16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-159Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked FQ3 2026 deliveries of at least 19,000 homes. Lennar delivered 20,840 (down 3% YoY), reported 16 Sep 2026, 9.7% above the floor.16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-57Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue of at least $29.4bn, the guidance midpoint. Broadcom reported $29,591m on 2 Sep 2026, +86% YoY: a margin of $191m, or 0.65%. A midpoint threshold that was genuinely in contention.15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-50Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)HIT — locked Q1 FY2027 cloud revenue growth of at least 58% in US dollars, the guidance floor. Oracle reported total cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) of $11,607m on 10 Sep 2026, +62% in USD and +61% in constant currency.14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-23US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.70MISS — locked the 2026 US Open men's champion as Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz (~0.70). Alexander Zverev won, beating Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(2) 5-7 6-2 in the 13 Sep 2026 final; neither named player reached the final. Published as a miss.13 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Miss
P-72Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue at or above the $6.67bn guidance floor. Adobe reported a record $6,760m on 10 Sep 2026, +13% YoY and 1.35% above the floor.11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-136US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.82HIT — locked US August 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.7% YoY. The BLS printed CPI-U all items +3.4% (not seasonally adjusted) on 11 Sep 2026, 0.3 points inside the ceiling.11 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-77Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYHIT — locked August 2026 net sales growth of at least +5% YoY. Costco reported $23.70bn for the four weeks to 30 Aug 2026, +9.9% from $21.56bn (released 2 Sep, after the close).3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Hit
P-167Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit

August 202619 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-21Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total.26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-56Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one.26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-71Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)HIT, but the tightest in the series — locked Q2 FY2027 revenue at or above the $11.27bn guidance floor; Salesforce reported $11.35bn, up 11%, clearing by $80m or ~0.7%. Consensus was $11.32bn, so the floor held with very little room. Full-year guidance was raised to $46.1–$46.4bn. Reported 26 Aug 2026.26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-147CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 revenueCrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 total revenue ≥$1.40bn (below guide low end) — ~0.94HIT — locked FQ2 FY2027 TOTAL revenue at or above $1.40bn; CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.47bn, up 26%, with ARR up 25% to $5.84bn, reported 26 Aug 2026. NOTE the metric trap this brief anticipated: SUBSCRIPTION revenue came in at exactly $1.40bn. The criterion explicitly named total revenue and excluded subscription revenue, so the call clears at $1.47bn; scoring the sibling would have landed precisely on the threshold.26 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-76Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)HIT — locked total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY; Q2 FY2027 total revenue rose 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), net sales +5% cc, reported 20 Aug 2026, full-year guidance raised. Honest note: Walmart MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales in the same quarter — we scored our locked metric (total net sales), not the quarter's overall reception.20 Aug 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Hit
P-126Home Depot FQ2 2026 compsHome Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales ≥ 0% — ~0.82HIT — locked comparable sales ≥0%; FQ2 2026 comparable sales printed +1.7% (US comps +1.3%) on sales of $47.9bn, reported 18 Aug 2026, guidance reaffirmed. Scored on TOTAL comparable sales, the locked metric — not the US-only figure and not the +5.7% total sales growth.18 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-94Disney streaming FQ3 2026Disney DTC/streaming operating income positive in fiscal Q3 2026 — ~0.88HIT - Disney fiscal-Q3 streaming operating income +$712M (positive, more than doubled YoY).12 Aug 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-70Circle USDC circulationCircle USDC in circulation at Q2'26 quarter-end ≥ $70BHIT - Circle USDC in circulation $73.3B at Q2 quarter-end (Jun 30), >=$70B.11 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-36Palantir Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $1.797B (guide floor)HIT - Palantir Q2 revenue $1.94bn, >=$1.797bn.10 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-69Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M).7 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Miss
P-130US July 2026 unemployment rateUS July 2026 unemployment rate ≤ 5.0% — ~0.90HIT - US July unemployment 4.1% (<=5.0%), below the 4.3% estimate.7 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-123McDonald's Q2 2026 global compsMcDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales > 0% — ~0.82HIT - McDonald's Q2 global comparable sales +1.3% (>0%), positive across all segments.6 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-67Qualcomm FQ3 2026 revenueQualcomm FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $9.2B (guide floor)HIT - Qualcomm fiscal-Q3 revenue $9.95bn, >=$9.2bn.5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-113Uber Q2 2026 gross bookingsUber Q2 2026 gross bookings ≥ $55bn — ~0.93HIT - Uber Q2 gross bookings $58.0bn, >=$55bn.5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-117Airbnb Q2 2026 revenueAirbnb Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $3.45bn — ~0.91HIT - Airbnb Q2 revenue $3.6bn, >=$3.45bn.5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-47AMD Q2 2026 revenueAMD Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $10.9B (guide floor)HIT - AMD Q2 revenue $11.5bn, >=$10.9bn (record).4 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-129Pfizer FY2026 guidance floorPfizer keeps FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $2.80 at Q2 — ~0.88HIT - Pfizer reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance $2.80-3.00 at Q2; floor >=$2.80 kept.4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-132Caterpillar Q2 2026 revenueCaterpillar Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $17.0bn (vs ~$19bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Caterpillar Q2 revenue $20.5bn, >=$17.0bn (first >$20bn quarter).4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-10Spider-Man: Brand New DayOpens #1, ≥ $140M 3-day domesticHIT - Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened #1 at $360M domestic, >=$140M (biggest opening ever).2 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit

July 202628 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-121ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPSExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.50 (vs ~$3.50 consensus) — ~0.88HIT - ExxonMobil Q2 adjusted EPS $3.52, >=$2.50.31 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-41Azure Q4 FY26 cloud growthAzure FQ4-FY26 growth ≥ 39% cc (guide floor) — ~0.78HIT - Azure fiscal-Q4 grew 43% (43% cc), >=39%.30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-42AWS Q2 2026 growthAWS Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 25% YoYHIT - AWS Q2 revenue grew ~37% YoY, >=25%.30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-46Apple Q3 FY26 revenueApple June-quarter revenue grows ≥ 14% YoY (guide floor)HIT - Apple fiscal-Q3 (June quarter) revenue $109.4bn, +16% YoY, >=+14%.30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-114Mastercard Q2 2026 net revenueMastercard Q2 2026 net revenue grows ≥8% YoY cc — ~0.88HIT - Mastercard Q2 net revenue +12% currency-neutral, >=8%.30 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-124US Q2 2026 GDP advance estimateUS Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate ≥ 1.0% annualized (GDPNow ~3.0%) — ~0.88HIT - US Q2 GDP advance +1.5% annualized, >=1.0% (below the 2.1% forecast but above the locked floor).30 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-07Fed July FOMCNo cut (target held ≥ 3.50–3.75%)HIT - the Fed held the target range at 3.50-3.75% (9-3) on Jul 29; no cut.29 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-34Meta Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $58.0B (guide floor)HIT - Meta Q2 revenue $60.8bn, >=$58.0bn.29 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-125Ford Q2 2026 adjusted EBITFord Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT positive (>$0) — ~0.85HIT - Ford Q2 adjusted EBIT +$2.5bn (positive).29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-135ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenueServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue ≥ $3.80bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - ServiceNow Q2 subscription revenue $3.877bn, >=$3.80bn.29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-104Visa fiscal Q3 2026 net revenueVisa FQ3 2026 GAAP net revenue ≥ $11.2bn — ~0.90HIT - Visa fiscal-Q3 net revenue $11.6bn, >=$11.2bn.28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-96Intel Q2 2026 revenueIntel Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $13.8bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Intel Q2 revenue $16.1bn, >=$13.8bn.23 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-45Alphabet Q2 Google CloudGoogle Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 50% YoYHIT - Google Cloud Q2 revenue grew 82% YoY, >=50%.22 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-101Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic growthCoca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 3% — ~0.90HIT - Coca-Cola Q2 organic revenue growth +6%, >=3%.22 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-127Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPSLockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $6.00 (vs ~$7.20 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Lockheed Martin Q2 EPS $7.94, >=$6.00.21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-133Verizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPSVerizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $1.15 (vs ~$1.27 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Verizon Q2 adjusted EPS $1.30, >=$1.15.21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-15The Odyssey (Nolan)Opens #1, ≥ $80M 3-day domesticHIT - The Odyssey opened #1 at $124.5M domestic, >=$80M (Nolan's best opening).19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-12Netflix Q2 revenue$12.30–12.85B (±2.2% of its $12.57B guide)HIT - Netflix Q2 revenue $12.56bn, inside the $12.30-12.85bn band.16 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-116J&J Q2 2026 adjusted EPSJohnson & Johnson Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.70 — ~0.90HIT - Johnson & Johnson Q2 adjusted EPS $2.90, >=$2.70.15 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-128Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenueMorgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $16.0bn (vs ~$19.1bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Morgan Stanley Q2 net revenue $21.3bn, >=$16.0bn.15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-134BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T.15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-97JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn.14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-107Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018).14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-120Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn.14 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-131Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75.10 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-118PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%.9 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-112026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms).8 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-05Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Miss

June 20263 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in June 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-65Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom).24 Jun 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-02US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026Miss
P-01US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).10 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026Hit

— Intelligence on United States

4

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