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RAOSCAFF

The Record · United States

United States. Every lock, every score.

124 forecasts on United States, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 51 resolved — 48 hit, 3 miss.

Locks124open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate94%48 hit · 3 missMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due23 Sep 2026P-58 · Meta Connect smart-glasses · open →

September 202615 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-77Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoY3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Locked
P-72Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-136US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.8211 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-23US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.7013 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-50Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-57Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-144US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.9216 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-159Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.9216 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.8217 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.8217 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynote23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.9328 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 close30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Locked
P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.9530 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.9030 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

October 202623 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-154Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.9215 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-200SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.9316 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-165Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.9320 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-207Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-166CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.9121 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-212Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.9321 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-160Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.9122 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-161Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.9322 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-170GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.9322 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-214Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.9422 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-215Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.9323 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-150Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.9027 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-158Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.9327 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-171WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.9327 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-188First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.9227 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-148UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.9328 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-191PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.9328 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-239Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.9428 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-78Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.8829 Oct 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Locked
P-173S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.9229 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-174Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.9329 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-192Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.9229 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-73BitMine ETH treasuryBitMine disclosed ETH holdings ≥ 6,000,000 by Oct 31 — ~0.9031 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

November 202612 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-60ARC Prize 2026 Grand Prize2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize unclaimed (ARC-AGI-2) — ~0.822 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-24US 2026 midterms — SenateRepublicans retain the Senate — calibrated ~0.543 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-44US House 2026 — DemocratsDemocrats win US House majority (≥218) — calibrated ~0.763 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-169Marriott Q3 2026 RevPARMarriott Q3 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth ≥+1.0% (vs +3.4% in Q2) — ~0.913 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-149Constellation FY2026 guidance floorConstellation keeps FY2026 adj operating EPS floor ≥$11.50 at Q3 — ~0.884 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-175Trade Desk Q3 2026 revenueTrade Desk Q3 2026 revenue ≥$600M (below its own slashed ~$650M guide) — ~0.915 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-208Cisco Q1 FY2027 revenueCisco Q1 FY2027 total revenue ≥$17.5bn (guide $18.0-18.2bn) — ~0.9312 Nov 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.9216 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.8717 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.9125 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-238Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE >= USD 4.5bn (the guidance floor held BEFORE August's raise to USD 4.75bn) — ~0.9325 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.7230 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked

December 202616 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.911 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260M21 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.7821 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-end31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.7831 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.8431 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.9731 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 202631 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.9731 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.9631 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.9331 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked

January 20274 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in January 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-109LA Rams 2026 NFL playoffsLA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — ~0.824 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-86Henry Hub 2026 annual average2026 Henry Hub calendar-year average ≤ $4.25/MMBtu (EIA) — ~0.9015 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.9415 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-79UnitedHealth FY2026 adjusted EPSFY2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $18.25 (guide floor) — calibrated ~0.8231 Jan 2027locked 23 Jun 2026Locked

February 20273 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-31OpenAI revenue run-rateAnnualized run-rate ≥ $30B at end-2026 — ~0.8815 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-64DraftKings FY2026 revenueFY2026 revenue inside $6.5–6.9B guidance band — ~0.8515 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-32TKO Group FY2026 revenueFY2026 total revenue ≥ $5.60B (floor) — ~0.9028 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

September 20261 lock resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-167Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit

August 202619 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in August 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-21Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total.26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-56Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one.26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-71Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)HIT, but the tightest in the series — locked Q2 FY2027 revenue at or above the $11.27bn guidance floor; Salesforce reported $11.35bn, up 11%, clearing by $80m or ~0.7%. Consensus was $11.32bn, so the floor held with very little room. Full-year guidance was raised to $46.1–$46.4bn. Reported 26 Aug 2026.26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-147CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 revenueCrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 total revenue ≥$1.40bn (below guide low end) — ~0.94HIT — locked FQ2 FY2027 TOTAL revenue at or above $1.40bn; CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.47bn, up 26%, with ARR up 25% to $5.84bn, reported 26 Aug 2026. NOTE the metric trap this brief anticipated: SUBSCRIPTION revenue came in at exactly $1.40bn. The criterion explicitly named total revenue and excluded subscription revenue, so the call clears at $1.47bn; scoring the sibling would have landed precisely on the threshold.26 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-76Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)HIT — locked total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY; Q2 FY2027 total revenue rose 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), net sales +5% cc, reported 20 Aug 2026, full-year guidance raised. Honest note: Walmart MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales in the same quarter — we scored our locked metric (total net sales), not the quarter's overall reception.20 Aug 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Hit
P-126Home Depot FQ2 2026 compsHome Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales ≥ 0% — ~0.82HIT — locked comparable sales ≥0%; FQ2 2026 comparable sales printed +1.7% (US comps +1.3%) on sales of $47.9bn, reported 18 Aug 2026, guidance reaffirmed. Scored on TOTAL comparable sales, the locked metric — not the US-only figure and not the +5.7% total sales growth.18 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-94Disney streaming FQ3 2026Disney DTC/streaming operating income positive in fiscal Q3 2026 — ~0.88HIT - Disney fiscal-Q3 streaming operating income +$712M (positive, more than doubled YoY).12 Aug 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Hit
P-70Circle USDC circulationCircle USDC in circulation at Q2'26 quarter-end ≥ $70BHIT - Circle USDC in circulation $73.3B at Q2 quarter-end (Jun 30), >=$70B.11 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-36Palantir Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $1.797B (guide floor)HIT - Palantir Q2 revenue $1.94bn, >=$1.797bn.10 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-69Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M).7 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Miss
P-130US July 2026 unemployment rateUS July 2026 unemployment rate ≤ 5.0% — ~0.90HIT - US July unemployment 4.1% (<=5.0%), below the 4.3% estimate.7 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-123McDonald's Q2 2026 global compsMcDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales > 0% — ~0.82HIT - McDonald's Q2 global comparable sales +1.3% (>0%), positive across all segments.6 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-67Qualcomm FQ3 2026 revenueQualcomm FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $9.2B (guide floor)HIT - Qualcomm fiscal-Q3 revenue $9.95bn, >=$9.2bn.5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-113Uber Q2 2026 gross bookingsUber Q2 2026 gross bookings ≥ $55bn — ~0.93HIT - Uber Q2 gross bookings $58.0bn, >=$55bn.5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-117Airbnb Q2 2026 revenueAirbnb Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $3.45bn — ~0.91HIT - Airbnb Q2 revenue $3.6bn, >=$3.45bn.5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-47AMD Q2 2026 revenueAMD Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $10.9B (guide floor)HIT - AMD Q2 revenue $11.5bn, >=$10.9bn (record).4 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-129Pfizer FY2026 guidance floorPfizer keeps FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $2.80 at Q2 — ~0.88HIT - Pfizer reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance $2.80-3.00 at Q2; floor >=$2.80 kept.4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-132Caterpillar Q2 2026 revenueCaterpillar Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $17.0bn (vs ~$19bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Caterpillar Q2 revenue $20.5bn, >=$17.0bn (first >$20bn quarter).4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-10Spider-Man: Brand New DayOpens #1, ≥ $140M 3-day domesticHIT - Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened #1 at $360M domestic, >=$140M (biggest opening ever).2 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit

July 202628 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-121ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPSExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.50 (vs ~$3.50 consensus) — ~0.88HIT - ExxonMobil Q2 adjusted EPS $3.52, >=$2.50.31 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-41Azure Q4 FY26 cloud growthAzure FQ4-FY26 growth ≥ 39% cc (guide floor) — ~0.78HIT - Azure fiscal-Q4 grew 43% (43% cc), >=39%.30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-42AWS Q2 2026 growthAWS Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 25% YoYHIT - AWS Q2 revenue grew ~37% YoY, >=25%.30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-46Apple Q3 FY26 revenueApple June-quarter revenue grows ≥ 14% YoY (guide floor)HIT - Apple fiscal-Q3 (June quarter) revenue $109.4bn, +16% YoY, >=+14%.30 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-114Mastercard Q2 2026 net revenueMastercard Q2 2026 net revenue grows ≥8% YoY cc — ~0.88HIT - Mastercard Q2 net revenue +12% currency-neutral, >=8%.30 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-124US Q2 2026 GDP advance estimateUS Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate ≥ 1.0% annualized (GDPNow ~3.0%) — ~0.88HIT - US Q2 GDP advance +1.5% annualized, >=1.0% (below the 2.1% forecast but above the locked floor).30 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-07Fed July FOMCNo cut (target held ≥ 3.50–3.75%)HIT - the Fed held the target range at 3.50-3.75% (9-3) on Jul 29; no cut.29 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-34Meta Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $58.0B (guide floor)HIT - Meta Q2 revenue $60.8bn, >=$58.0bn.29 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-125Ford Q2 2026 adjusted EBITFord Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT positive (>$0) — ~0.85HIT - Ford Q2 adjusted EBIT +$2.5bn (positive).29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-135ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenueServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue ≥ $3.80bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - ServiceNow Q2 subscription revenue $3.877bn, >=$3.80bn.29 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-104Visa fiscal Q3 2026 net revenueVisa FQ3 2026 GAAP net revenue ≥ $11.2bn — ~0.90HIT - Visa fiscal-Q3 net revenue $11.6bn, >=$11.2bn.28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-96Intel Q2 2026 revenueIntel Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $13.8bn (low end of guide) — ~0.92HIT - Intel Q2 revenue $16.1bn, >=$13.8bn.23 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-45Alphabet Q2 Google CloudGoogle Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows ≥ 50% YoYHIT - Google Cloud Q2 revenue grew 82% YoY, >=50%.22 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-101Coca-Cola Q2 2026 organic growthCoca-Cola Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 3% — ~0.90HIT - Coca-Cola Q2 organic revenue growth +6%, >=3%.22 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-127Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPSLockheed Martin Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $6.00 (vs ~$7.20 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Lockheed Martin Q2 EPS $7.94, >=$6.00.21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-133Verizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPSVerizon Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $1.15 (vs ~$1.27 consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Verizon Q2 adjusted EPS $1.30, >=$1.15.21 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-15The Odyssey (Nolan)Opens #1, ≥ $80M 3-day domesticHIT - The Odyssey opened #1 at $124.5M domestic, >=$80M (Nolan's best opening).19 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-12Netflix Q2 revenue$12.30–12.85B (±2.2% of its $12.57B guide)HIT - Netflix Q2 revenue $12.56bn, inside the $12.30-12.85bn band.16 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-116J&J Q2 2026 adjusted EPSJohnson & Johnson Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $2.70 — ~0.90HIT - Johnson & Johnson Q2 adjusted EPS $2.90, >=$2.70.15 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-128Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenueMorgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $16.0bn (vs ~$19.1bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Morgan Stanley Q2 net revenue $21.3bn, >=$16.0bn.15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-134BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T.15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-97JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn.14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-107Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018).14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-120Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn.14 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-131Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75.10 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026Hit
P-118PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%.9 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-112026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms).8 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Hit
P-05Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street).2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Miss

June 20263 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on United States resolving in June 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-65Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom).24 Jun 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit
P-02US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss.17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026Miss
P-01US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series).10 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026Hit

— Intelligence on United States

4

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