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RAOSCAFF

The Record · France

France. Every lock, every score.

14 forecasts on France, each committed to a public criterion before the outcome was known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. 2 resolved — 2 hit, 0 miss.

Locks14open on the Atlas →Resolved hit rate100%2 hit · 0 missMost recent resolutionHitP-98 · 28 Jul 2026 · open →Next criterion due20 Oct 2026P-184 · L'Oreal Q3 2026 LfL growth · open →

October 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on France resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-184L'Oreal Q3 2026 LfL growthL'Oreal Q3 2026 like-for-like sales growth ≥+2.0% (vs +6.8% in H1) — ~0.9220 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked

November 20261 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on France resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-281Richemont H1 FY2027 salesRichemont H1 FY2027 group SALES >= EUR 11.5bn at actual rates (Q1 alone EUR 6.3bn; LEVEL-anchored — Richemont publishes no guidance) — ~0.9214 Nov 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

January 20272 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on France resolving in January 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.9415 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-236LVMH FY2026 revenueLVMH FY2026 reported group REVENUE >= EUR 76bn (seasonality-anchored; LVMH issues no revenue guidance) — ~0.9228 Jan 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked

February 20277 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on France resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-264Vinci FY2026 free cash flowVinci FY2026 FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 5.4bn (guidance ~EUR 6bn; 10% buffer widened for construction cash-timing swings) — ~0.904 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-268Carrefour FY2026 net free cash flowCarrefour FY2026 GROUP NET FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 1,450m (floor set BELOW the 2025 base of EUR 1,565m — H1 was NEGATIVE EUR 1.99bn) — ~0.9017 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-277Schneider Electric FY2026 organic revenue growthSchneider Electric FY2026 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 8.5% (guidance raised to 10-13% from 7-10%; threshold sits between the two floors) — ~0.9218 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-274Safran FY2026 recurring operating incomeSafran FY2026 RECURRING OPERATING INCOME >= EUR 6.2bn (guidance raised to ~EUR 6.5bn; H1 EUR 3,237m +29%) — ~0.9219 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-285Danone FY2026 like-for-like sales growthDanone FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance +3-5% confirmed; H1 3.5%, Q2 4.2%; growth split 1.7% volume / 1.8% price) — ~0.9224 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-217AXA FY2026 underlying EPS growthAXA FY2026 underlying EPS growth ≥6% (reported outcome, not guidance restatement) — ~0.9125 Feb 2027locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-286Veolia FY2026 organic EBITDA growthVeolia FY2026 ORGANIC EBITDA growth >= 4.0% (guidance MAINTAINED 5-6% while net income guidance was RAISED to >=8% — we anchored on the one that held) — ~0.9226 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

May 20271 lock resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on France resolving in May 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-287Alstom FY2026/27 adjusted EBIT marginAlstom FY2026/27 ADJUSTED EBIT MARGIN >= 6.0% (guidance ~6.5% confirmed; FY ends 31 MARCH 2027; EUR 102.8bn backlog) — ~0.9012 May 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked

July 20262 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks on France resolving in July 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-98LVMH H1 2026 organic growthLVMH H1 2026 organic revenue growth ≥ 0% — ~0.74HIT - LVMH H1 organic revenue growth +2%, >=0%.28 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Hit
P-17Tour de France 2026 (GC simulation)Pogačar 56.9% win / 91.8% podium — 200k-race Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Pogacar (56.9% win) won the Tour, his 5th title, and podiumed.26 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Hit

— Intelligence on France

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