The Record
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Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 22 of 360 ·Resolved ×United States ×October 2026 ×Clear all
October 202622 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-78 | Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88HIT — locked Mounjaro plus Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue above $14.0bn. Eli Lilly reported Mounjaro $10,723m and Zepbound $5,352m on 29 Oct 2026, a combined $16,075m, 14.8% above the threshold.United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-173 | S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $3.80. S&P Global reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.58 on 27 Oct 2026 (GAAP $4.45 not used), 20.5% above the floor.United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-174 | Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $4.20. Linde reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.59 on 29 Oct 2026, 9.3% above the floor. GAAP EPS of $3.66 would have missed; the criterion named adjusted EPS.United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-192 | Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 attributable gold production of at least 1.20m oz. Newmont reported 1,302k oz on 22 Oct 2026 (gold sales of 1,211k oz not used), 8.5% above the floor. A production lock, not a gold-price call.United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-148 | UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of at least $21.0bn. UPS reported $22.9bn on 27 Oct 2026 (segment sum $22,853m), 9.0% above the floor.United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-191 | PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total payment volume of at least $460bn. PayPal reported $487.1bn on 27 Oct 2026, 5.9% above the floor.United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-239 | Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.94HIT — locked fiscal Q4 2026 net revenue (after client incentives) of at least $11.0bn. Visa reported $12,139m for the quarter to 30 Sep 2026, +13% YoY, released 27 Oct 2026, 10.4% above the floor.United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-150 | Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.90HIT — locked a Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio at or below 95%. Chubb reported 84.1% on 20 Oct 2026 (82.6% excluding catastrophe losses, not used), 10.9 points inside the ceiling.United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-158 | Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 for the peak cruise quarter. Royal Caribbean reported $6.57 on 27 Oct 2026, 31.4% above the floor: a threshold set too low to be in contention.United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-171 | WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA of at least $1.95bn. WM reported $2,121m on 27 Oct 2026, 8.8% above the floor.United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-188 | First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 module sales of at least 3.5GW. First Solar's Q3 2026 key quarterly data, published with its 29 Oct 2026 results, shows 4,128MW sold (production of 4,280MW not used), 17.9% above the floor. The results press release itself does not state the volume; the figure is from the company's own results-day schedule, corroborated by its earnings slides.United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-215 | Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of at least $8.3bn. Comcast reported $9,106m on 22 Oct 2026, 9.7% above the floor.United States | 23 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-160 | Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 steel mill shipments of at least 6.5m tons. Nucor's Steel Mills segment shipped 7,231k tons (Q2: 7,100k) per its 26 Oct 2026 release. Scored on the steel mills segment total the criterion names, not the 5,662k tons shipped to outside customers.United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-161 | Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked a Q3 2026 reported operating ratio at or below 65%. Union Pacific reported 59.1% on 22 Oct 2026, 5.9 points inside the ceiling. Scored on the reported ratio, not the adjusted 58.8%.United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-170 | GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $1.75. GE Aerospace reported $2.25 on 20 Oct 2026 (GAAP $2.32 not used), 28.6% above the floor.United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-214 | Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.94HIT — locked Q3 2026 TOTAL assets under management of at least $1.25tn. Blackstone reported $1,368.3bn at 30 Sep 2026, 9.5% above the floor. On fee-earning AUM ($989.7bn) this would have missed, which is why the criterion named total AUM.United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-166 | CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 average daily volume of at least 24m contracts. CME Group reported a third-quarter record of 29.4m (29,445k) on 21 Oct 2026, 22.7% above the floor: a wide floor that was not in contention.United States | 21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-212 | Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total net revenues of at least $6.6bn. Charles Schwab reported a record $7,171m on 15 Oct 2026, +17% YoY.United States | 21 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-165 | Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of at least $2.00. Philip Morris reported $2.36 on 21 Oct 2026, +5.4% YoY.United States | 20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-207 | Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 headline core revenue growth of at least 1.0%, not the ex-respiratory measure. Danaher reported core sales growth of 3.0% on 21 Oct 2026. Danaher now excludes tariff refunds to customers from core growth; counting them gives 2.0%, which also clears the floor.United States | 20 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-200 | SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 revenue of at least $8.5bn. SLB reported $9,449m on 23 Oct 2026, +5% sequentially and 11.2% above the floor.United States | 16 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-154 | Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 core FFO of at least $1.45 per diluted share. Prologis reported $1.60 on 15 Oct 2026 (Q3 2025: $1.49), 10.3% above the floor.United States | 15 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |