The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 19 of 345 ·United States ×Next 7 days ×August 2026 ×Clear all
August 202619 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-21 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-56 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-71 | Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)HIT, but the tightest in the series — locked Q2 FY2027 revenue at or above the $11.27bn guidance floor; Salesforce reported $11.35bn, up 11%, clearing by $80m or ~0.7%. Consensus was $11.32bn, so the floor held with very little room. Full-year guidance was raised to $46.1–$46.4bn. Reported 26 Aug 2026.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-147 | CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 revenueCrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 total revenue ≥$1.40bn (below guide low end) — ~0.94HIT — locked FQ2 FY2027 TOTAL revenue at or above $1.40bn; CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.47bn, up 26%, with ARR up 25% to $5.84bn, reported 26 Aug 2026. NOTE the metric trap this brief anticipated: SUBSCRIPTION revenue came in at exactly $1.40bn. The criterion explicitly named total revenue and excluded subscription revenue, so the call clears at $1.47bn; scoring the sibling would have landed precisely on the threshold.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-76 | Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)HIT — locked total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY; Q2 FY2027 total revenue rose 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), net sales +5% cc, reported 20 Aug 2026, full-year guidance raised. Honest note: Walmart MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales in the same quarter — we scored our locked metric (total net sales), not the quarter's overall reception.United States | 20 Aug 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-126 | Home Depot FQ2 2026 compsHome Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales ≥ 0% — ~0.82HIT — locked comparable sales ≥0%; FQ2 2026 comparable sales printed +1.7% (US comps +1.3%) on sales of $47.9bn, reported 18 Aug 2026, guidance reaffirmed. Scored on TOTAL comparable sales, the locked metric — not the US-only figure and not the +5.7% total sales growth.United States | 18 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-94 | Disney streaming FQ3 2026Disney DTC/streaming operating income positive in fiscal Q3 2026 — ~0.88HIT - Disney fiscal-Q3 streaming operating income +$712M (positive, more than doubled YoY).United States | 12 Aug 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-70 | Circle USDC circulationCircle USDC in circulation at Q2'26 quarter-end ≥ $70BHIT - Circle USDC in circulation $73.3B at Q2 quarter-end (Jun 30), >=$70B.United States | 11 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-36 | Palantir Q2 2026 revenueQ2 2026 revenue ≥ $1.797B (guide floor)HIT - Palantir Q2 revenue $1.94bn, >=$1.797bn.United States | 10 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-69 | Coinbase Q2 2026 S&S revenueCoinbase Q2 2026 Subscription & Services revenue ≥ $565M (guide floor)MISS - locked the >=$565M guide floor; Coinbase Q2 subscription & services revenue was $555M, just under (and below Q1's $584M).United States | 7 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-130 | US July 2026 unemployment rateUS July 2026 unemployment rate ≤ 5.0% — ~0.90HIT - US July unemployment 4.1% (<=5.0%), below the 4.3% estimate.United States | 7 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-123 | McDonald's Q2 2026 global compsMcDonald's Q2 2026 global comparable sales > 0% — ~0.82HIT - McDonald's Q2 global comparable sales +1.3% (>0%), positive across all segments.United States | 6 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-67 | Qualcomm FQ3 2026 revenueQualcomm FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $9.2B (guide floor)HIT - Qualcomm fiscal-Q3 revenue $9.95bn, >=$9.2bn.United States | 5 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-113 | Uber Q2 2026 gross bookingsUber Q2 2026 gross bookings ≥ $55bn — ~0.93HIT - Uber Q2 gross bookings $58.0bn, >=$55bn.United States | 5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-117 | Airbnb Q2 2026 revenueAirbnb Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $3.45bn — ~0.91HIT - Airbnb Q2 revenue $3.6bn, >=$3.45bn.United States | 5 Aug 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-47 | AMD Q2 2026 revenueAMD Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $10.9B (guide floor)HIT - AMD Q2 revenue $11.5bn, >=$10.9bn (record).United States | 4 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-129 | Pfizer FY2026 guidance floorPfizer keeps FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $2.80 at Q2 — ~0.88HIT - Pfizer reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance $2.80-3.00 at Q2; floor >=$2.80 kept.United States | 4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-132 | Caterpillar Q2 2026 revenueCaterpillar Q2 2026 revenue ≥ $17.0bn (vs ~$19bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Caterpillar Q2 revenue $20.5bn, >=$17.0bn (first >$20bn quarter).United States | 4 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-10 | Spider-Man: Brand New DayOpens #1, ≥ $140M 3-day domesticHIT - Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened #1 at $360M domestic, >=$140M (biggest opening ever).United States | 2 Aug 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |