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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 43 of 345 ·Awaiting resolution ×United States ×Next 90 days ×Clear all

September 20267 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in September 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-103Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82United States17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-143General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82United States17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-58Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteUnited States23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-100LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93United States28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-16Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeUnited States30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026Locked
P-88Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95United States30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-108US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90United States30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked

October 202623 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-154Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92United States15 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-200SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93United States16 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026Locked
P-165Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.93United States20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-207Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.92United States20 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-166CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.91United States21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-212Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.93United States21 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-160Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.91United States22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-161Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.93United States22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-170GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.93United States22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-214Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.94United States22 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-215Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.93United States23 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-150Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.90United States27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-158Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.93United States27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-171WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.93United States27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-188First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.92United States27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-148UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.93United States28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-191PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.93United States28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-239Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.94United States28 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-78Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88United States29 Oct 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Locked
P-173S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.92United States29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-174Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.93United States29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-192Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.92United States29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-73BitMine ETH treasuryBitMine disclosed ETH holdings ≥ 6,000,000 by Oct 31 — ~0.90United States31 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

November 202610 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-60ARC Prize 2026 Grand Prize2026 ARC Prize Grand Prize unclaimed (ARC-AGI-2) — ~0.82United States2 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-24US 2026 midterms — SenateRepublicans retain the Senate — calibrated ~0.54United States3 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-44US House 2026 — DemocratsDemocrats win US House majority (≥218) — calibrated ~0.76United States3 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-169Marriott Q3 2026 RevPARMarriott Q3 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth ≥+1.0% (vs +3.4% in Q2) — ~0.91United States3 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-149Constellation FY2026 guidance floorConstellation keeps FY2026 adj operating EPS floor ≥$11.50 at Q3 — ~0.88United States4 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-175Trade Desk Q3 2026 revenueTrade Desk Q3 2026 revenue ≥$600M (below its own slashed ~$650M guide) — ~0.91United States5 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-208Cisco Q1 FY2027 revenueCisco Q1 FY2027 total revenue ≥$17.5bn (guide $18.0-18.2bn) — ~0.93United States12 Nov 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.92United States16 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.87ChinaUnited States17 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.91United States25 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked

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