Skip to main content
RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked360every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate92.95%145 hit · 11 miss · 204 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-78 · 29 Oct 2026 · open →Next criterion due5 Nov 2026P-164 · Maersk Q3 2026 underlying EBITDA · open →

Showing 156 of 360 ·Resolved ×Next 7 days ×Clear all

October 202640 locks resolved

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in October 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-78Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88HIT — locked Mounjaro plus Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue above $14.0bn. Eli Lilly reported Mounjaro $10,723m and Zepbound $5,352m on 29 Oct 2026, a combined $16,075m, 14.8% above the threshold.United States29 Oct 2026locked 23 Jun 2026Hit
P-173S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $3.80. S&P Global reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.58 on 27 Oct 2026 (GAAP $4.45 not used), 20.5% above the floor.United States29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-174Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $4.20. Linde reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.59 on 29 Oct 2026, 9.3% above the floor. GAAP EPS of $3.66 would have missed; the criterion named adjusted EPS.United States29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-190Universal Music Q3 2026 revenueUniversal Music Q3 2026 total revenue ≥€3.0bn (vs €3.294bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Universal Music Q3 2026 revenue of at least €3.0bn. UMG reported €3,394m (from the company's own PR Newswire release).Netherlands29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-192Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 attributable gold production of at least 1.20m oz. Newmont reported 1,302k oz on 22 Oct 2026 (gold sales of 1,211k oz not used), 8.5% above the floor. A production lock, not a gold-price call.United States29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-148UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of at least $21.0bn. UPS reported $22.9bn on 27 Oct 2026 (segment sum $22,853m), 9.0% above the floor.United States28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-156Australia Sept-quarter 2026 CPIAustralia Sept-qtr 2026 headline CPI ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.8% June qtr) — ~0.91HIT, with a basis note — locked Australia's September-quarter 2026 headline CPI annual movement at or below 4.5%. Since late 2025 the ABS has led with the monthly CPI and no longer states a quarterly headline annual rate. Every available reading clears the ceiling: the official quarterly index (103.64 vs 99.73 a year earlier) gives 3.9%, and the September monthly headline was 4.3%. The lock's 3.8% June-quarter baseline predates the ABS re-basing.Australia28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-191PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total payment volume of at least $460bn. PayPal reported $487.1bn on 27 Oct 2026, 5.9% above the floor.United States28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-239Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.94HIT — locked fiscal Q4 2026 net revenue (after client incentives) of at least $11.0bn. Visa reported $12,139m for the quarter to 30 Sep 2026, +13% YoY, released 27 Oct 2026, 10.4% above the floor.United States28 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Hit
P-150Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.90HIT — locked a Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio at or below 95%. Chubb reported 84.1% on 20 Oct 2026 (82.6% excluding catastrophe losses, not used), 10.9 points inside the ceiling.United States27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-158Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 for the peak cruise quarter. Royal Caribbean reported $6.57 on 27 Oct 2026, 31.4% above the floor: a threshold set too low to be in contention.United States27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-171WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA of at least $1.95bn. WM reported $2,121m on 27 Oct 2026, 8.8% above the floor.United States27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-188First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 module sales of at least 3.5GW. First Solar's Q3 2026 key quarterly data, published with its 29 Oct 2026 results, shows 4,128MW sold (production of 4,280MW not used), 17.9% above the floor. The results press release itself does not state the volume; the figure is from the company's own results-day schedule, corroborated by its earnings slides.United States27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-209Reckitt FY2026 Core LFL floorReckitt keeps FY2026 Core LFL guidance floor ≥4% at Q3 (Core, not group LFL) — ~0.88MISS — locked that Reckitt would keep its FY2026 Core like-for-like guidance floor at 4% or above at Q3 (~0.88). On 27 Oct 2026 Reckitt CUT Core Reckitt guidance to +3.5% to +4.5% from +4.0% to +5.0%, after Q3 Core LFL growth of 3.3% on North American manufacturing constraints. Published as a miss.United Kingdom27 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Miss
P-219HSBC 9M 2026 revenueHSBC 9M 2026 constant-currency revenue ex-notables ≥$54bn ($38.2bn booked in H1) — ~0.93HIT — locked HSBC 9M 2026 constant-currency revenue excluding notable items of at least $54bn. HSBC reported $56,848m on that basis.United Kingdom27 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Hit
P-256POSCO Q3 2026 crude steel productionPOSCO Q3 2026 CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION >= 8.4 Mt (Q2 8,884kt at 89.5% util; NOT product sales volume, 527kt lower) — ~0.91HIT — locked POSCO Q3 2026 crude steel production of at least 8.4 Mt. POSCO's results deck (2 Nov 2026) reports 9,117kt for the steel company, the same series as the 8,884kt Q2 anchor. Scored on crude steel production, not product sales volume.South Korea27 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Hit
P-222SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APESBI Life Q2 FY27 APE ≥₹4,800cr (quarter alone; APE not GWP or VoNB) — ~0.93HIT, with a basis note — locked SBI Life Q2 FY2027 APE of at least ₹4,800 crore for the quarter alone. SBI Life publishes APE year to date only: H1 ₹11,750 crore less Q1 ₹5,380 crore gives about ₹6,370 crore for Q2, 33% above the floor. No reading of the published figures produces a miss.India24 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Hit
P-232Dr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 revenue from operationsDr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED revenue from operations ≥ Rs 7,400 crore (LEVEL locked — sources conflict on the YoY rate) — ~0.93HIT — locked Dr Reddy's Q2 FY2027 consolidated revenue from operations of at least ₹7,400 crore (a level lock, because sources conflicted on the YoY rate). Dr Reddy's reported ₹8,697.8 crore (IFRS headline ₹8,670.8 crore), above the floor on either basis.India24 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Hit
P-215Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of at least $8.3bn. Comcast reported $9,106m on 22 Oct 2026, 9.7% above the floor.United States23 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-216IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenueIndiGo Q2 FY27 revenue from operations ≥₹19,000cr (seasonal trough; revenue not profit) — ~0.92HIT — locked IndiGo Q2 FY2027 revenue from operations of at least ₹19,000 crore in the seasonal trough. InterGlobe Aviation reported ₹23,363.8 crore on 29 Oct 2026. A revenue lock, not a profit lock.India23 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-289ASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 operating marginASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 OPERATING MARGIN >= 16.0% (LEVEL-anchored off a record Q2 17.0%; margin locked because the sales line has four components) — ~0.91HIT — locked ASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 operating margin of at least 16.0%. ASSA ABLOY reported an operating (EBIT) margin of 17.4% on 27 Oct 2026, the basis of the Q2 anchor; the EBITA margin of 18.7% also clears.Sweden23 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Hit
P-304Hindustan Unilever Q2 FY2027 EBITDA marginHUL Q2 FY2027 EBITDA MARGIN >= 22.0% (guided 22.5-23.5%; revenue AND the DIRECTION of profit conflict across sources, margin does not) — ~0.92HIT — locked Hindustan Unilever's Q2 FY2027 EBITDA margin at or above 22.0%. HUL reported a consolidated EBITDA margin of 22.6% on 28 Oct 2026 (22.43% on the same basis as the Q1 22.76% the lock cited): the narrowest margin in this batch, 0.4-0.6 points clear.United KingdomIndia23 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-329Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUENestlé India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE >= INR 5,900 crore (Q1 INR 6,378.18cr; +25.16% was the fastest in FORTY quarters — so we lock the LEVEL, not the rate; profit reported as both INR 958.68cr and INR 975cr) — ~0.92HIT — locked Nestlé India Q2 FY2027 revenue of at least ₹5,900 crore, a level lock chosen because Q1's +25% was a forty-quarter record. Nestlé India reported revenue from operations of ₹6,788.34 crore.India23 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-160Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 steel mill shipments of at least 6.5m tons. Nucor's Steel Mills segment shipped 7,231k tons (Q2: 7,100k) per its 26 Oct 2026 release. Scored on the steel mills segment total the criterion names, not the 5,662k tons shipped to outside customers.United States22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-161Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked a Q3 2026 reported operating ratio at or below 65%. Union Pacific reported 59.1% on 22 Oct 2026, 5.9 points inside the ceiling. Scored on the reported ratio, not the adjusted 58.8%.United States22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-170GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $1.75. GE Aerospace reported $2.25 on 20 Oct 2026 (GAAP $2.32 not used), 28.6% above the floor.United States22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-214Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.94HIT — locked Q3 2026 TOTAL assets under management of at least $1.25tn. Blackstone reported $1,368.3bn at 30 Sep 2026, 9.5% above the floor. On fee-earning AUM ($989.7bn) this would have missed, which is why the criterion named total AUM.United States22 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-288Atlas Copco Q3 2026 revenuesAtlas Copco Q3 2026 REVENUES >= SEK 42.0bn (LEVEL-anchored off Q2 SEK 44,974m — the company publishes no numeric guidance) — ~0.91HIT — locked Atlas Copco Q3 2026 revenues of at least SEK 42.0bn, level-anchored because the company publishes no numeric guidance. Atlas Copco reported SEK 47,920m.Sweden22 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026Hit
P-305UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volumesUltraTech Q2 FY2027 CONSOLIDATED sales volumes >= 36.0 Mt (Q1 41.31 Mt; domestic 39.2 Mt is 2.1 Mt lower and EXCLUDED; Q2 is the monsoon quarter) — ~0.90HIT — locked UltraTech Q2 FY2027 consolidated sales volume of at least 36.0 Mt in the monsoon quarter. UltraTech reported 38.22 Mt, measured on the same basis as Q1's 41.31 Mt. Domestic grey cement alone was 35.94 Mt, just under the floor; the criterion named consolidated volume and excluded the domestic line.India22 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-334Havells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUEHavells India Q2 FY2027 REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS >= INR 5,600 crore (Q1 INR 6,518cr but Q1 is the SUMMER COOLING PEAK — 14% buffer; PAT fell 16.64% on doubled A&P spend) — ~0.91HIT — locked Havells India Q2 FY2027 revenue from operations of at least ₹5,600 crore, buffered 14% below a summer-peak Q1. Havells reported consolidated revenue from operations of ₹6,431.99 crore (standalone ₹6,416.62 crore).India22 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit
P-146UK September 2026 CPIUK Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.92HIT — locked UK September 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.5% YoY. The ONS printed 3.5% on 21 Oct 2026, up from 3.1%, exactly at the ceiling, which is inclusive. CPIH printed 3.6%: scoring that sibling measure would have produced a miss, and the criterion named CPI.United Kingdom21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-152BHP Q1 FY2027 iron oreBHP Q1 FY27 WAIO iron ore ≥58Mt BHP-share (~8% below guided pace) — ~0.91HIT — locked BHP Q1 FY2027 Western Australia Iron Ore production of at least 58 Mt, BHP share. BHP reported 64.3 Mt on its share (71.9 Mt on a 100% basis) on 20 Oct 2026. A volume lock, not an iron-ore price call.Australia21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-166CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 average daily volume of at least 24m contracts. CME Group reported a third-quarter record of 29.4m (29,445k) on 21 Oct 2026, 22.7% above the floor: a wide floor that was not in contention.United States21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-212Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total net revenues of at least $6.6bn. Charles Schwab reported a record $7,171m on 15 Oct 2026, +17% YoY.United States21 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-155Canada September 2026 CPICanada Sept 2026 headline CPI ≤3.5% YoY (vs 2.8% June) — ~0.92HIT — locked Canada's September 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.5% YoY. Statistics Canada printed 3.1% on 19 Oct 2026, driven by gasoline (+27.8%); excluding gasoline it was 2.2%.Canada20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-165Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of at least $2.00. Philip Morris reported $2.36 on 21 Oct 2026, +5.4% YoY.United States20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-184L'Oreal Q3 2026 LfL growthL'Oreal Q3 2026 like-for-like sales growth ≥+2.0% (vs +6.8% in H1) — ~0.92HIT — locked L'Oréal Q3 2026 like-for-like sales growth of at least +2.0%. L'Oréal reported group like-for-like growth of +7.2% on 22 Oct 2026 (an adjusted +7.7% not used): a floor set far below what was delivered.France20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Hit
P-207Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 headline core revenue growth of at least 1.0%, not the ex-respiratory measure. Danaher reported core sales growth of 3.0% on 21 Oct 2026. Danaher now excludes tariff refunds to customers from core growth; counting them gives 2.0%, which also clears the floor.United States20 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-213ABB Q3 2026 revenueABB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$9.0bn (vs $9.5bn in Q2; orders +28%) — ~0.93HIT — locked ABB Q3 2026 revenue of at least $9.0bn. ABB's regulatory release reported $9,701m, 7.8% above the floor (read from the release's newswire copies; ABB's own site did not load).Switzerland20 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Hit
P-317Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOMEAxis Bank Q2 FY2027 NET INTEREST INCOME >= INR 13,800 crore (Q1 NII INR 14,646cr; profit +22.5% was driven by provisions FALLING 43.7% while GNPA rose 1.23%→1.28%) — ~0.92HIT — locked Axis Bank Q2 FY2027 net interest income of at least ₹13,800 crore. Axis reported standalone NII of ₹15,371 crore, 11.4% above the floor. Locked on NII rather than profit because provisions, not the bank, were driving profit.India20 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026Hit

The running scoreboard → · The Intelligence Library →