The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
Showing 82 of 360 ·Hit ×United States ×Next 7 days ×Clear all
October 202622 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-78 | Eli Lilly incretin franchise Q3 2026Mounjaro + Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue > $14.0B — ~0.88HIT — locked Mounjaro plus Zepbound worldwide Q3 2026 revenue above $14.0bn. Eli Lilly reported Mounjaro $10,723m and Zepbound $5,352m on 29 Oct 2026, a combined $16,075m, 14.8% above the threshold.United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-173 | S&P Global Q3 2026 adj EPSS&P Global Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$3.80 (vs $4.08 in Q2, which missed consensus) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $3.80. S&P Global reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.58 on 27 Oct 2026 (GAAP $4.45 not used), 20.5% above the floor.United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-174 | Linde Q3 2026 adj EPSLinde Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$4.20 (vs $4.50 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $4.20. Linde reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.59 on 29 Oct 2026, 9.3% above the floor. GAAP EPS of $3.66 would have missed; the criterion named adjusted EPS.United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-192 | Newmont Q3 2026 gold productionNewmont Q3 2026 attributable gold production ≥1.20M oz (vs 1.3M in Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 attributable gold production of at least 1.20m oz. Newmont reported 1,302k oz on 22 Oct 2026 (gold sales of 1,211k oz not used), 8.5% above the floor. A production lock, not a gold-price call.United States | 29 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-148 | UPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenueUPS Q3 2026 consolidated revenue ≥$21.0bn (~8% below Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of at least $21.0bn. UPS reported $22.9bn on 27 Oct 2026 (segment sum $22,853m), 9.0% above the floor.United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-191 | PayPal Q3 2026 payment volumePayPal Q3 2026 total payment volume ≥$460bn (vs $486.4bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total payment volume of at least $460bn. PayPal reported $487.1bn on 27 Oct 2026, 5.9% above the floor.United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-239 | Visa fiscal Q4 2026 net revenueVisa fiscal Q4 2026 NET REVENUE (after client incentives) >= USD 11.0bn — ~0.94HIT — locked fiscal Q4 2026 net revenue (after client incentives) of at least $11.0bn. Visa reported $12,139m for the quarter to 30 Sep 2026, +13% YoY, released 27 Oct 2026, 10.4% above the floor.United States | 28 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-150 | Chubb Q3 2026 combined ratioChubb Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio ≤95% (vs 83.8% in Q2) — ~0.90HIT — locked a Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio at or below 95%. Chubb reported 84.1% on 20 Oct 2026 (82.6% excluding catastrophe losses, not used), 10.9 points inside the ceiling.United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-158 | Royal Caribbean Q3 2026 adj EPSRoyal Caribbean Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$5.00 (peak quarter; Q2 was $4.21) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 for the peak cruise quarter. Royal Caribbean reported $6.57 on 27 Oct 2026, 31.4% above the floor: a threshold set too low to be in contention.United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-171 | WM Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAWM Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA ≥$1.95bn (vs $2.067bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA of at least $1.95bn. WM reported $2,121m on 27 Oct 2026, 8.8% above the floor.United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-188 | First Solar Q3 2026 module salesFirst Solar Q3 2026 module sales ≥3.5GW (~10% below its own guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 module sales of at least 3.5GW. First Solar's Q3 2026 key quarterly data, published with its 29 Oct 2026 results, shows 4,128MW sold (production of 4,280MW not used), 17.9% above the floor. The results press release itself does not state the volume; the figure is from the company's own results-day schedule, corroborated by its earnings slides.United States | 27 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-215 | Comcast Q3 2026 adj EBITDAComcast Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA ≥$8.3bn (declining broadband base, disclosed) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of at least $8.3bn. Comcast reported $9,106m on 22 Oct 2026, 9.7% above the floor.United States | 23 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-160 | Nucor Q3 2026 steel shipmentsNucor Q3 2026 steel mill shipments ≥6.5M tons (vs record 7.1M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 steel mill shipments of at least 6.5m tons. Nucor's Steel Mills segment shipped 7,231k tons (Q2: 7,100k) per its 26 Oct 2026 release. Scored on the steel mills segment total the criterion names, not the 5,662k tons shipped to outside customers.United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-161 | Union Pacific Q3 2026 operating ratioUnion Pacific Q3 2026 reported operating ratio ≤65% (vs 59.7% in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked a Q3 2026 reported operating ratio at or below 65%. Union Pacific reported 59.1% on 22 Oct 2026, 5.9 points inside the ceiling. Scored on the reported ratio, not the adjusted 58.8%.United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-170 | GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adj EPSGE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 (vs $2.02 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $1.75. GE Aerospace reported $2.25 on 20 Oct 2026 (GAAP $2.32 not used), 28.6% above the floor.United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-214 | Blackstone Q3 2026 AUMBlackstone Q3 2026 TOTAL AUM ≥$1.25tn (not fee-earning AUM) — ~0.94HIT — locked Q3 2026 TOTAL assets under management of at least $1.25tn. Blackstone reported $1,368.3bn at 30 Sep 2026, 9.5% above the floor. On fee-earning AUM ($989.7bn) this would have missed, which is why the criterion named total AUM.United States | 22 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-166 | CME Group Q3 2026 volumeCME Group Q3 2026 average daily volume ≥24M contracts (vs 29.8M in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Q3 2026 average daily volume of at least 24m contracts. CME Group reported a third-quarter record of 29.4m (29,445k) on 21 Oct 2026, 22.7% above the floor: a wide floor that was not in contention.United States | 21 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-212 | Charles Schwab Q3 2026 revenuesCharles Schwab Q3 2026 total net revenues ≥$6.6bn (vs record $7.07bn in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 total net revenues of at least $6.6bn. Charles Schwab reported a record $7,171m on 15 Oct 2026, +17% YoY.United States | 21 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-165 | Philip Morris Q3 2026 adj EPSPhilip Morris Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS ≥$2.00 (vs $2.20 in Q2) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of at least $2.00. Philip Morris reported $2.36 on 21 Oct 2026, +5.4% YoY.United States | 20 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-207 | Danaher Q3 2026 core growthDanaher Q3 2026 core revenue growth ≥1.0% (guide 2-3%; headline core, not ex-respiratory) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 headline core revenue growth of at least 1.0%, not the ex-respiratory measure. Danaher reported core sales growth of 3.0% on 21 Oct 2026. Danaher now excludes tariff refunds to customers from core growth; counting them gives 2.0%, which also clears the floor.United States | 20 Oct 2026locked 26 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-200 | SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 revenue of at least $8.5bn. SLB reported $9,449m on 23 Oct 2026, +5% sequentially and 11.2% above the floor.United States | 16 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-154 | Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 core FFO of at least $1.45 per diluted share. Prologis reported $1.60 on 15 Oct 2026 (Q3 2025: $1.49), 10.3% above the floor.United States | 15 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
September 202613 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-16 | Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeHIT — locked cumulative US spot-bitcoin-ETF net inflows of at least $45bn at the Q3 close. Summing Farside Investors' daily totals from 11 Jan 2024 to 30 Sep 2026 gives $57.56bn, which reconciles to Farside's printed all-time total once October flows are added. A flows lock, not a bitcoin-price call.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-88 | Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95HIT — locked an Apple event in the week of 7 Sep with iPhone 18 Pro on sale before 30 Sep. Apple held its event on 9 Sep 2026 and iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale on 18 Sep.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-100 | LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93HIT — locked a Dodgers 2026 postseason berth. They clinched on 14 Sep 2026 with a 4-1 win at Cincinnati.United States | 28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-58 | Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteHIT — locked a new smart-glasses model or hardware capability from the Connect 2026 keynote. On 23 Sep 2026, the Connect keynote day, Meta announced Ray-Ban Meta Audio, Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 3) and new Meta Capri and Meta Nova styles (Meta Newsroom: "Today at Connect, we announced"). Placement on the keynote stage rests on live coverage of the keynote.United States | 23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-143 | General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82HIT — locked that General Mills would hold its FY2027 adjusted-EPS guidance floor of $3.00 at Q1. On 23 Sep 2026 it reaffirmed adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00-$3.20. The floor held exactly; the criterion is inclusive.United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-144 | US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.92HIT — locked a year-on-year rise in US August 2026 retail sales. The Census Bureau's advance estimate on 16 Sep 2026 put retail and food services sales at $773.9bn seasonally adjusted, up 6.0% from August 2025. Scored on the first-published advance figure, not the later revision.United States | 16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-159 | Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked FQ3 2026 deliveries of at least 19,000 homes. Lennar delivered 20,840 (down 3% YoY), reported 16 Sep 2026, 9.7% above the floor.United States | 16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-57 | Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue of at least $29.4bn, the guidance midpoint. Broadcom reported $29,591m on 2 Sep 2026, +86% YoY: a margin of $191m, or 0.65%. A midpoint threshold that was genuinely in contention.United States | 15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-50 | Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)HIT — locked Q1 FY2027 cloud revenue growth of at least 58% in US dollars, the guidance floor. Oracle reported total cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) of $11,607m on 10 Sep 2026, +62% in USD and +61% in constant currency.United States | 14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-72 | Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue at or above the $6.67bn guidance floor. Adobe reported a record $6,760m on 10 Sep 2026, +13% YoY and 1.35% above the floor.United States | 11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-136 | US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.82HIT — locked US August 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.7% YoY. The BLS printed CPI-U all items +3.4% (not seasonally adjusted) on 11 Sep 2026, 0.3 points inside the ceiling.United States | 11 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-77 | Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYHIT — locked August 2026 net sales growth of at least +5% YoY. Costco reported $23.70bn for the four weeks to 30 Aug 2026, +9.9% from $21.56bn (released 2 Sep, after the close).United States | 3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-167 | Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.United States | 1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
August 20265 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-21 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-56 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-71 | Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)HIT, but the tightest in the series — locked Q2 FY2027 revenue at or above the $11.27bn guidance floor; Salesforce reported $11.35bn, up 11%, clearing by $80m or ~0.7%. Consensus was $11.32bn, so the floor held with very little room. Full-year guidance was raised to $46.1–$46.4bn. Reported 26 Aug 2026.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-147 | CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 revenueCrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 total revenue ≥$1.40bn (below guide low end) — ~0.94HIT — locked FQ2 FY2027 TOTAL revenue at or above $1.40bn; CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.47bn, up 26%, with ARR up 25% to $5.84bn, reported 26 Aug 2026. NOTE the metric trap this brief anticipated: SUBSCRIPTION revenue came in at exactly $1.40bn. The criterion explicitly named total revenue and excluded subscription revenue, so the call clears at $1.47bn; scoring the sibling would have landed precisely on the threshold.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-76 | Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)HIT — locked total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY; Q2 FY2027 total revenue rose 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), net sales +5% cc, reported 20 Aug 2026, full-year guidance raised. Honest note: Walmart MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales in the same quarter — we scored our locked metric (total net sales), not the quarter's overall reception.United States | 20 Aug 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |