The Record
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Showing 156 of 360 ·Resolved ×Next 90 days ×Clear all
October 202613 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-89 | China Q3 2026 GDPChina official Q3 2026 GDP ≥4.5% YoY — ~0.92HIT — locked China's official Q3 2026 GDP growth at or above 4.5% YoY. The NBS reported 4.5% on 19 Oct 2026 (Q2: 4.3%), exactly at the floor, which is inclusive. A threshold that was genuinely in contention.China | 18 Oct 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-200 | SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 revenue of at least $8.5bn. SLB reported $9,449m on 23 Oct 2026, +5% sequentially and 11.2% above the floor.United States | 16 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-325 | Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenueWipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenue >= US$2.50bn (guidance US$2.574-2.627bn, a ONE-QUARTER-AHEAD absolute dollar range; contrast P-319 HCLTech's full-year % guide) — ~0.93HIT — locked Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT services segment revenue of at least US$2.50bn. Wipro reported US$2,611.5m, inside its own US$2.574-2.627bn one-quarter-ahead guidance.India | 16 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026 | Hit |
| P-154 | Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 core FFO of at least $1.45 per diluted share. Prologis reported $1.60 on 15 Oct 2026 (Q3 2025: $1.49), 10.3% above the floor.United States | 15 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-221 | ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPIICICI Lombard Q2 FY27 GDPI ≥₹7,500cr (premium not profit; GDPI not GPW) — ~0.93MISS — locked ICICI Lombard Q2 FY2027 GDPI of at least ₹7,500 crore (~0.93). The company reported GDPI of ₹67.92bn (₹6,792 crore) on 14 Oct 2026, up only 3.0% against 7.0% for the industry as crop and mass health contracted. It also misses on the n basis (₹72.84bn). Published as a miss.India | 15 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Miss |
| P-240 | TSMC Q3 2026 revenueTSMC Q3 2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 43.0bn (guidance USD 44.6-45.8bn; correlated pair with P-235, disclosed) — ~0.93HIT — locked TSMC Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of at least US$43.0bn, below its US$44.6-45.8bn guidance. TSMC reported NT$1,494.24bn, or US$46.72bn, on 15 Oct 2026, about 2% above the top of its own guidance. Correlated with P-235 (ASML), as disclosed at lock.NetherlandsTaiwan | 15 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-263 | Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross marginEricsson Q3 2026 NETWORKS segment ADJUSTED gross margin >= 47.0% (guidance 48-50%; NOT group gross margin, 2pts lower in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross margin of at least 47.0%. Ericsson reported 50.3% on 15 Oct 2026.Sweden | 14 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026 | Hit |
| P-162 | Mexico September 2026 inflationMexico Sept 2026 headline inflation ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.12% July) — ~0.93HIT — locked Mexico's September 2026 headline INPC inflation at or below 4.5%. INEGI printed 3.45% on 8 Oct 2026.Mexico | 8 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-189 | Tesco H1 2026/27 group salesTesco H1 2026/27 group sales ≥£32.5bn (£16.83bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93HIT — locked Tesco H1 2026/27 Group sales of at least £32.5bn. Tesco's LSE release reported Group sales of £33,776m (excluding VAT and fuel); revenue including fuel was £37,353m. Both clear the floor.United Kingdom | 8 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-59 | Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.88HIT — locked that the 4 Oct 2026 Brazilian presidential first round would go to a runoff (no candidate above 50%). The TSE count gives Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% and Lula 45.16% of valid votes.Brazil | 4 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-220 | Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUMBajaj Finance Q2 FY27 consolidated AUM ≥₹5.6 lakh crore (vs ₹5,46,944cr at Q1) — ~0.94HIT — locked Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 consolidated AUM of at least ₹5,60,000 crore. The 3 Oct 2026 business update reported about ₹5,84,750 crore (the later results deck: ₹5,84,624 crore), above the floor on either figure.India | 3 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-141 | Accenture FQ4 FY26 revenueAccenture FQ4 FY26 revenue ≥ $17.75bn (low end of guide) — ~0.90HIT — locked FQ4 FY2026 revenue of at least $17.75bn, the low end of guidance. Accenture reported $18.68bn, +6% in US dollars and 5.2% above the floor.Ireland | 1 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-145 | Euro area September 2026 inflationEuro-area Sept 2026 flash HICP ≤3.5% YoY — ~0.93MISS — locked euro-area September 2026 flash HICP at or below 3.5% (~0.93). Eurostat's flash on 2 Oct 2026 printed 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August and above the ~3.6% consensus, with energy the main driver; the 16 Oct final confirmed 3.8%. Published as a miss.not yet tagged | 1 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Miss |
September 202624 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-16 | Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeHIT — locked cumulative US spot-bitcoin-ETF net inflows of at least $45bn at the Q3 close. Summing Farside Investors' daily totals from 11 Jan 2024 to 30 Sep 2026 gives $57.56bn, which reconciles to Farside's printed all-time total once October flows are added. A flows lock, not a bitcoin-price call.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-88 | Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95HIT — locked an Apple event in the week of 7 Sep with iPhone 18 Pro on sale before 30 Sep. Apple held its event on 9 Sep 2026 and iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale on 18 Sep.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-108 | US 10-year yield end-Sept 2026US 10y Treasury yield closes Sept 2026 inside 3.75–5.25% — ~0.90MISS — locked the US 10-year Treasury yield closing September 2026 inside 3.75-5.25% (~0.90). FRED DGS10 printed 5.29% for 30 Sep 2026, four basis points above the top of the band; it had been 5.24% two sessions earlier. A band miss is a miss. Published as a miss.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-138 | RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.95HIT — locked that the RBA would not cut (cash rate at or above 4.35%; hold-vs-hike not predicted). On 29 Sep 2026 the RBA RAISED the cash rate target by 25bp to 4.60%. A hike satisfies a no-cut lock; we did not call the direction.Australia | 29 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-100 | LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93HIT — locked a Dodgers 2026 postseason berth. They clinched on 14 Sep 2026 with a 4-1 win at Cincinnati.United States | 28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-142 | Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.93HIT — locked an SNB hold at 0.00%. On 24 Sep 2026 the Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%.Switzerland | 25 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-58 | Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteHIT — locked a new smart-glasses model or hardware capability from the Connect 2026 keynote. On 23 Sep 2026, the Connect keynote day, Meta announced Ray-Ban Meta Audio, Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 3) and new Meta Capri and Meta Nova styles (Meta Newsroom: "Today at Connect, we announced"). Placement on the keynote stage rests on live coverage of the keynote.United States | 23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-119 | Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.93HIT — locked that the Bank of England would not cut (Bank Rate at or above 3.75%). On 17 Sep 2026 the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6-3, with all three dissenters voting to RAISE to 4%. Exactly at the floor, which is inclusive.United Kingdom | 18 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-103 | Fed September 2026 decisionFed holds funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at Sept 2026 FOMC — ~0.82MISS — locked a Fed hold at 3.50-3.75% (~0.82). On 16 Sep 2026 the FOMC voted 12-0 to RAISE the target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Published as a miss.United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-143 | General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82HIT — locked that General Mills would hold its FY2027 adjusted-EPS guidance floor of $3.00 at Q1. On 23 Sep 2026 it reaffirmed adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00-$3.20. The floor held exactly; the criterion is inclusive.United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-144 | US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.92HIT — locked a year-on-year rise in US August 2026 retail sales. The Census Bureau's advance estimate on 16 Sep 2026 put retail and food services sales at $773.9bn seasonally adjusted, up 6.0% from August 2025. Scored on the first-published advance figure, not the later revision.United States | 16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-159 | Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked FQ3 2026 deliveries of at least 19,000 homes. Lennar delivered 20,840 (down 3% YoY), reported 16 Sep 2026, 9.7% above the floor.United States | 16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-57 | Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue of at least $29.4bn, the guidance midpoint. Broadcom reported $29,591m on 2 Sep 2026, +86% YoY: a margin of $191m, or 0.65%. A midpoint threshold that was genuinely in contention.United States | 15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-50 | Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)HIT — locked Q1 FY2027 cloud revenue growth of at least 58% in US dollars, the guidance floor. Oracle reported total cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) of $11,607m on 10 Sep 2026, +62% in USD and +61% in constant currency.United States | 14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-23 | US Open 2026 men's (final two)Champion is Sinner or Alcaraz — calibrated ~0.70MISS — locked the 2026 US Open men's champion as Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz (~0.70). Alexander Zverev won, beating Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6(2) 5-7 6-2 in the 13 Sep 2026 final; neither named player reached the final. Published as a miss.United States | 13 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-72 | Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue at or above the $6.67bn guidance floor. Adobe reported a record $6,760m on 10 Sep 2026, +13% YoY and 1.35% above the floor.United States | 11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-136 | US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.82HIT — locked US August 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.7% YoY. The BLS printed CPI-U all items +3.4% (not seasonally adjusted) on 11 Sep 2026, 0.3 points inside the ceiling.United States | 11 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-112 | ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94HIT — locked that the ECB would not cut (deposit rate at or above 2.25%). On 10 Sep 2026 it RAISED its three key rates by 25bp, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% from 16 Sep. The lock said no cut, not a hold; a hike satisfies it, and we do not claim we foresaw the hike.not yet tagged | 10 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-179 | Inditex H1 FY2026 net salesInditex H1 FY2026 net sales ≥€17.0bn (€8.7bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93HIT — locked Inditex H1 FY2026 net sales of at least €17.0bn. Inditex reported €19,755m in reported euros, 16.2% above the floor.Spain | 9 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-48 | Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote shareHIT — locked AfD as the largest party by certified second-vote share. The Landeswahlleiter's final result gives AfD 43.8% of valid Zweitstimmen (575,971 of 1,315,282) against the CDU's 17.2%, a lead of 26.6 points.Germany | 6 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-140 | Lululemon Q2 FY2026Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue ≥ $2.4bn (vs ~$2.55bn est) — ~0.85HIT — locked Q2 FY2026 net revenue of at least $2.4bn. Lululemon reported $2,415.6m on 3 Sep 2026, down 4% YoY: a margin of $15.6m, or 0.65%. Scored on the unrounded statement figure, because the headline '$2.4 billion' is rounded.Canada | 4 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-77 | Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYHIT — locked August 2026 net sales growth of at least +5% YoY. Costco reported $23.70bn for the four weeks to 30 Aug 2026, +9.9% from $21.56bn (released 2 Sep, after the close).United States | 3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-137 | Bank of Canada September 2026BoC holds the overnight rate at 2.25% (no change) — ~0.95HIT — locked a hold at 2.25%. On 2 Sep 2026 the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20%).Canada | 2 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-167 | Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.United States | 1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
August 20263 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-22 | India Q1 FY27 GDPQ1 FY27 real GDP inside the 6.3–7.3% YoY bandMISS — locked the 6.3–7.3% band; MoSPI printed 7.8% YoY for Q1 FY27 on 31 Aug 2026 (real GDP Rs 81.36 lakh crore vs Rs 75.46 lakh crore). Above the band, so a miss under our own band rule even though the direction was right — the same failure as P-05. The band was set around the RBI's own 7% projection and the economy beat it: manufacturing 9.2%, real GVA +8.2%. We were not bearish, we were insufficiently bullish, and a band miss is a miss. We published it.India | 31 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-21 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-56 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |