Skip to main content
RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 40 of 345 ·February 2027 ×Clear all

February 202740 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-218Diageo H1 FY2027 organic net salesDiageo H1 FY27 organic net sales growth ≥−5% (decline-bounded floor; organic not reported) — ~0.90United Kingdom2 Feb 2027locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-267Ferrari FY2026 adjusted EBITDAFerrari FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= EUR 2.90bn (guidance raised to >=EUR 2.97bn; 4 metrics guided, this names one) — ~0.93Italy2 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-230Glencore FY2026 own-sourced copper productionGlencore FY2026 own-sourced copper ≥ 790kt (guidance basis 840kt; tonnes locked, price NOT forecast) — ~0.90Switzerland3 Feb 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-255Santander FY2026 total revenueSantander FY2026 TOTAL REVENUE >= EUR 60.0bn (H1 EUR 30.85bn; revenue locked NOT profit — H1 profit carries a one-off) — ~0.93Spain3 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-261Equinor FY2026 oil and gas production growthEquinor FY2026 OIL AND GAS production growth >= 1.5% (guidance 3%, H1 delivered 6%; NOT renewable power, +11% in Q2) — ~0.91Norway4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-264Vinci FY2026 free cash flowVinci FY2026 FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 5.4bn (guidance ~EUR 6bn; 10% buffer widened for construction cash-timing swings) — ~0.90France4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-276DSV FY2026 EBIT before special itemsDSV FY2026 EBIT BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= DKK 22.5bn (guidance narrowed UP to DKK 23.5-25.5bn; forwarder, opposite freight exposure to P-237 Maersk) — ~0.91Denmark4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-283Givaudan FY2026 like-for-like sales growthGivaudan FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.0% (H1 +3.6% LFL vs -1.7% reported CHF — opposite signs; the 4-6% target is a 2026-2030 AVERAGE, not FY26 guidance) — ~0.91Switzerland4 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-237Maersk FY2026 underlying EBITDAMaersk FY2026 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= USD 10.0bn (guidance raised to USD 10.5-12.5bn; underlying NOT reported EBITDA) — ~0.89Denmark5 Feb 2027locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-282UniCredit FY2026 net profitUniCredit FY2026 REPORTED net profit >= EUR 10.5bn incl. integration costs (guidance raised 3x to well above EUR 11bn) — ~0.93Italy9 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-254Heineken FY2026 organic operating profit growthHeineken FY2026 ORGANIC operating profit growth >= 1.5% (reiterated 2-6% guide; H1 was 6.7%, above its own top) — ~0.91Netherlands10 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-260DBS FY2026 total incomeDBS FY2026 GROUP TOTAL INCOME > FY2025 (relative comparison — the 2025 base could not be independently verified, so no threshold was invented) — ~0.90Singapore10 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-251ArcelorMittal FY2026 iron ore shipmentsArcelorMittal FY2026 IRON ORE shipments >= 17.0 Mt (guidance maintained 18 Mt; mining leg, explicitly NOT a steel call) — ~0.90Luxembourg11 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-252Unilever FY2026 underlying sales growthUnilever FY2026 UNDERLYING sales growth >= 3.5% (guided within 4-6%; H1 4.8% with 4.2pts volume) — ~0.92United Kingdom11 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-266Adyen FY2026 net revenue growthAdyen FY2026 NET REVENUE growth >= 18% AT CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 21-23% cc; H1 +19% reported vs +21% cc) — ~0.91Netherlands11 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-278RELX FY2026 profit growth vs revenue growthRELX FY2026 UNDERLYING adjusted operating profit growth EXCEEDS underlying revenue growth (relative lock — RELX guided a relationship, not a number) — ~0.93United Kingdom11 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-303Enbridge FY2026 adjusted EBITDAEnbridge FY2026 ADJUSTED EBITDA >= C$19.6bn (guidance C$20.2-20.8bn reaffirmed; C$41bn secured backlog; tolls on volume not the oil price) — ~0.93Canada12 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-30Hyperscaler 2026 capexMSFT+GOOGL+AMZN+META CY2026 capex ≥ $600B — ~0.95not yet tagged15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-31OpenAI revenue run-rateAnnualized run-rate ≥ $30B at end-2026 — ~0.88United States15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-64DraftKings FY2026 revenueFY2026 revenue inside $6.5–6.9B guidance band — ~0.85United States15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-262América Móvil FY2026 capital expenditureAmérica Móvil FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 6.3bn (guidance ~USD 7bn; capex locked because Q2 EBITDA growth was published 3 ways) — ~0.90BrazilMexico16 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-268Carrefour FY2026 net free cash flowCarrefour FY2026 GROUP NET FREE CASH FLOW >= EUR 1,450m (floor set BELOW the 2025 base of EUR 1,565m — H1 was NEGATIVE EUR 1.99bn) — ~0.90France17 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-269Woodside FY2026 productionWoodside FY2026 group PRODUCTION >= 170 MMboe (guidance 174-185 reaffirmed; H1 86.5; a source discrepancy is disclosed and non-decisive) — ~0.92Australia17 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-248Nestlé FY2026 organic sales growthNestlé FY2026 ORGANIC sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance 3-4%; organic = RIG + pricing, NOT reported sales) — ~0.91Switzerland18 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-277Schneider Electric FY2026 organic revenue growthSchneider Electric FY2026 ORGANIC revenue growth >= 8.5% (guidance raised to 10-13% from 7-10%; threshold sits between the two floors) — ~0.92France18 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-280Zurich Insurance FY2026 business operating profitZurich FY2026 GROUP business operating profit >= USD 9.0bn (record H1 USD 4.8bn; FY2025 USD 8.9bn; buffer sized for hurricane season) — ~0.91Switzerland18 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-322Vale 2026 iron ore PRODUCTIONVale calendar-2026 iron ore PRODUCTION >= 320 Mt (guidance 335-345 Mt maintained with 2 quarters banked; NOT sales, NOT pellets; cost guidance RAISED to US$58-62/t) — ~0.93Brazil18 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-274Safran FY2026 recurring operating incomeSafran FY2026 RECURRING OPERATING INCOME >= EUR 6.2bn (guidance raised to ~EUR 6.5bn; H1 EUR 3,237m +29%) — ~0.92France19 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-279Iberdrola FY2026 adjusted net profit growthIberdrola FY2026 ADJUSTED net profit growth >= 5% (guidance comfortably above 8%; H1 reported +22% vs adjusted +8% — widest gap locked against) — ~0.91Spain24 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-285Danone FY2026 like-for-like sales growthDanone FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.5% (guidance +3-5% confirmed; H1 3.5%, Q2 4.2%; growth split 1.7% volume / 1.8% price) — ~0.92France24 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-345CP All 7-Eleven THAILAND store count at 31 Dec 2026CP All 7-ELEVEN THAILAND net store count at 31 Dec 2026 >= 16,500 (16,284 at 30 Jun 2026 from 15,945 at end-2025; ~700 openings targeted — locked at a 40% shortfall to plan) — ~0.92Thailand24 Feb 2027locked 4 Sep 2026Locked
P-217AXA FY2026 underlying EPS growthAXA FY2026 underlying EPS growth ≥6% (reported outcome, not guidance restatement) — ~0.91France25 Feb 2027locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-250Petrobras FY2026 oil productionPetrobras FY2026 average OIL production >= 2.45 million bpd (NOT oil-and-gas on a boe basis; Q2 record 2.7 mmbpd) — ~0.91Brazil25 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-272Bank Central Asia FY2026 net profitBCA FY2026 CONSOLIDATED NET PROFIT >= IDR 56tn (H1 IDR 29.5tn; loan-book sources conflict IDR 1,036 vs 1,082tn so profit is locked) — ~0.91Indonesia25 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-273LSEG FY2026 organic revenue growthLSEG FY2026 TOTAL ORGANIC revenue growth >= 6.0% at CONSTANT CURRENCY (guidance 7.0-7.5%; NOT subscription growth, guided ~6.5%, which straddles this floor) — ~0.92United Kingdom25 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-293Summerset FY2026 group home deliveriesSummerset FY2026 GROUP home deliveries >= 650 incl. Australia (guidance 700-800; NZ-only guidance CUT by 50 to 600-650 — the criterion names GROUP) — ~0.91New Zealand25 Feb 2027locked 3 Sep 2026Locked
P-270BASF FY2026 EBITDA before special itemsBASF FY2026 EBITDA BEFORE SPECIAL ITEMS >= EUR 6.6bn (guidance raised to EUR 6.9-7.7bn; prior-guidance anchor consciously OVERRIDDEN, see brief) — ~0.94Germany26 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-284Amadeus FY2026 revenueAmadeus FY2026 group REVENUE >= EUR 6.4bn (LEVEL-anchored off banked H1 EUR 3,334.9m; the trimmed outlook range could not be verified and is NOT the anchor) — ~0.91Spain26 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-286Veolia FY2026 organic EBITDA growthVeolia FY2026 ORGANIC EBITDA growth >= 4.0% (guidance MAINTAINED 5-6% while net income guidance was RAISED to >=8% — we anchored on the one that held) — ~0.92France26 Feb 2027locked 2 Sep 2026Locked
P-32TKO Group FY2026 revenueFY2026 total revenue ≥ $5.60B (floor) — ~0.90United States28 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

The running scoreboard → · The Intelligence Library →