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RAOSCAFF

The Record

Every lock. Every score. Every country.

Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.

Forecasts locked345every lock · click to resetResolved hit rate93.75%75 hit · 5 miss · 265 pendingMost recent resolutionHitP-167 · 1 Sep 2026 · open →Next criterion due18 Sep 2026P-119 · Bank of England September 2026 decision · open →

Showing 73 of 345 ·Awaiting resolution ×United States ×Clear all

November 202610 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in November 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-44US House 2026 — DemocratsDemocrats win US House majority (≥218) — calibrated ~0.76United States3 Nov 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-169Marriott Q3 2026 RevPARMarriott Q3 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth ≥+1.0% (vs +3.4% in Q2) — ~0.91United States3 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-149Constellation FY2026 guidance floorConstellation keeps FY2026 adj operating EPS floor ≥$11.50 at Q3 — ~0.88United States4 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-175Trade Desk Q3 2026 revenueTrade Desk Q3 2026 revenue ≥$600M (below its own slashed ~$650M guide) — ~0.91United States5 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-208Cisco Q1 FY2027 revenueCisco Q1 FY2027 total revenue ≥$17.5bn (guide $18.0-18.2bn) — ~0.93United States12 Nov 2026locked 26 Aug 2026Locked
P-82Taylor Swift 2027 Grammy ROTY nom'The Fate of Ophelia' a 2027 Grammy Record of the Year nominee — ~0.92United States16 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-225US import prices from China Oct 2026US import price index from China rises YoY in Oct 2026 (pro-thesis half) — ~0.87ChinaUnited States17 Nov 2026locked 27 Aug 2026Locked
P-181Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 net income ≥$4.2bn (~7% below a raised $4.5-5.0bn guide) — ~0.91United States25 Nov 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-238Deere FY2026 net incomeDeere FY2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE >= USD 4.5bn (the guidance floor held BEFORE August's raise to USD 4.75bn) — ~0.93United States25 Nov 2026locked 29 Aug 2026Locked
P-81NOAA 2026 Atlantic storms2026 Atlantic season ends with ≤ 14 named storms — ~0.72United States30 Nov 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked

December 202616 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in December 2026
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-153CBOT December 2026 cornCBOT Dec-2026 corn settles ≤550c/bu on 1 Dec 2026 (~19% above 462c) — ~0.91United States1 Dec 2026locked 13 Aug 2026Locked
P-26Avengers: Doomsday opening#1, 3-day domestic opening $200–260MUnited States21 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-110Dune: Part Three openingDune: Part Three domestic 3-day opening ≥ $60M — ~0.78United States21 Dec 2026locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-27US tariff floor 2026US trade-weighted avg applied tariff stays ≥10% at year-endUnited States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-39ChatGPT 1B weekly usersOpenAI officially confirms 1B WAU by year-end — ~0.78United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-40Kuiper < 1,000 sats on orbitAmazon Kuiper holds < 1,000 satellites on orbit at year-end — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-51LMArena #1 modelDec-31 LMArena #1 text model is from OpenAI / Anthropic / Google — ~0.84United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-52Nvidia Vera RubinNvidia confirms Vera Rubin sampling/production by year-end — ~0.97United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-54US spot-ETH-ETF flowsUS spot-ETH-ETF cumulative net inflows > 0 at year-end — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-74SpaceX Falcon 2026 launchesSpaceX ≥ 120 Falcon-family orbital launches in 2026United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-75SpaceX Starship H2 2026 flightSpaceX ≥ 1 integrated Starship test flight in H2 2026 — ~0.97United States31 Dec 2026locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-84NASA Europa Clipper Earth flybyEuropa Clipper completes its ~Dec 2026 Earth gravity-assist flyby — ~0.96United States31 Dec 2026locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-201S&P 500 year-end 2026S&P 500 closes 2026 inside 6,000-9,500 (band; direction not predicted) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-202VIX year-end 2026VIX closes 2026 ≤32 (spot close, not futures) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-205Mag-7 S&P 500 weight end-2026Mag-7 combined S&P 500 weight ends 2026 inside 25-45% (seven named; band) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked
P-206US high-yield spread end-2026ICE BofA US HY OAS ends 2026 ≤600bp (broad index, not CCC sub-index) — ~0.93United States31 Dec 2026locked 25 Aug 2026Locked

January 20274 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in January 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-109LA Rams 2026 NFL playoffsLA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — ~0.82United States4 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-86Henry Hub 2026 annual average2026 Henry Hub calendar-year average ≤ $4.25/MMBtu (EIA) — ~0.90United States15 Jan 2027locked 24 Jun 2026Locked
P-115Airbus out-delivers Boeing 2026Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — ~0.94FranceUnited States15 Jan 2027locked 25 Jun 2026Locked
P-79UnitedHealth FY2026 adjusted EPSFY2026 adjusted EPS ≥ $18.25 (guide floor) — calibrated ~0.82United States31 Jan 2027locked 23 Jun 2026Locked

February 20273 locks resolving

RAOSCAFF prediction locks resolving in February 2027
RefThe locked callResolvesStatus
P-31OpenAI revenue run-rateAnnualized run-rate ≥ $30B at end-2026 — ~0.88United States15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-64DraftKings FY2026 revenueFY2026 revenue inside $6.5–6.9B guidance band — ~0.85United States15 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked
P-32TKO Group FY2026 revenueFY2026 total revenue ≥ $5.60B (floor) — ~0.90United States28 Feb 2027locked 21 Jun 2026Locked

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