The Record
Every lock. Every score. Every country.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known and scored against that exact criterion afterwards. Misses are published in full. Pick a country on the Atlas, a month, a status, or search the calls.
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October 202610 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-200 | SLB Q3 2026 revenueSLB Q3 2026 total revenue ≥$8.5bn (vs $8.97bn in Q2; guidance is sequential growth) — ~0.93HIT — locked Q3 2026 revenue of at least $8.5bn. SLB reported $9,449m on 23 Oct 2026, +5% sequentially and 11.2% above the floor.United States | 16 Oct 2026locked 21 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-325 | Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenueWipro Q2 FY2027 IT SERVICES revenue >= US$2.50bn (guidance US$2.574-2.627bn, a ONE-QUARTER-AHEAD absolute dollar range; contrast P-319 HCLTech's full-year % guide) — ~0.93HIT — locked Wipro Q2 FY2027 IT services segment revenue of at least US$2.50bn. Wipro reported US$2,611.5m, inside its own US$2.574-2.627bn one-quarter-ahead guidance.India | 16 Oct 2026locked 3 Sep 2026 | Hit |
| P-154 | Prologis Q3 2026 core FFOPrologis Q3 2026 core FFO ≥$1.45/diluted share (~11% below Q2) — ~0.92HIT — locked Q3 2026 core FFO of at least $1.45 per diluted share. Prologis reported $1.60 on 15 Oct 2026 (Q3 2025: $1.49), 10.3% above the floor.United States | 15 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-240 | TSMC Q3 2026 revenueTSMC Q3 2026 consolidated REVENUE >= USD 43.0bn (guidance USD 44.6-45.8bn; correlated pair with P-235, disclosed) — ~0.93HIT — locked TSMC Q3 2026 consolidated revenue of at least US$43.0bn, below its US$44.6-45.8bn guidance. TSMC reported NT$1,494.24bn, or US$46.72bn, on 15 Oct 2026, about 2% above the top of its own guidance. Correlated with P-235 (ASML), as disclosed at lock.NetherlandsTaiwan | 15 Oct 2026locked 29 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-263 | Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross marginEricsson Q3 2026 NETWORKS segment ADJUSTED gross margin >= 47.0% (guidance 48-50%; NOT group gross margin, 2pts lower in Q2) — ~0.91HIT — locked Ericsson Q3 2026 Networks adjusted gross margin of at least 47.0%. Ericsson reported 50.3% on 15 Oct 2026.Sweden | 14 Oct 2026locked 2 Sep 2026 | Hit |
| P-162 | Mexico September 2026 inflationMexico Sept 2026 headline inflation ≤4.5% YoY (vs 3.12% July) — ~0.93HIT — locked Mexico's September 2026 headline INPC inflation at or below 4.5%. INEGI printed 3.45% on 8 Oct 2026.Mexico | 8 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-189 | Tesco H1 2026/27 group salesTesco H1 2026/27 group sales ≥£32.5bn (£16.83bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93HIT — locked Tesco H1 2026/27 Group sales of at least £32.5bn. Tesco's LSE release reported Group sales of £33,776m (excluding VAT and fuel); revenue including fuel was £37,353m. Both clear the floor.United Kingdom | 8 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-59 | Brazil 2026 — runoffNo first-round 50%+ → Oct 25 runoff — calibrated ~0.88HIT — locked that the 4 Oct 2026 Brazilian presidential first round would go to a runoff (no candidate above 50%). The TSE count gives Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% and Lula 45.16% of valid votes.Brazil | 4 Oct 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-220 | Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 AUMBajaj Finance Q2 FY27 consolidated AUM ≥₹5.6 lakh crore (vs ₹5,46,944cr at Q1) — ~0.94HIT — locked Bajaj Finance Q2 FY2027 consolidated AUM of at least ₹5,60,000 crore. The 3 Oct 2026 business update reported about ₹5,84,750 crore (the later results deck: ₹5,84,624 crore), above the floor on either figure.India | 3 Oct 2026locked 27 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-141 | Accenture FQ4 FY26 revenueAccenture FQ4 FY26 revenue ≥ $17.75bn (low end of guide) — ~0.90HIT — locked FQ4 FY2026 revenue of at least $17.75bn, the low end of guidance. Accenture reported $18.68bn, +6% in US dollars and 5.2% above the floor.Ireland | 1 Oct 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
September 202621 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-16 | Spot-Bitcoin-ETF flowsCumulative net inflow ≥ $45B at Q3 closeHIT — locked cumulative US spot-bitcoin-ETF net inflows of at least $45bn at the Q3 close. Summing Farside Investors' daily totals from 11 Jan 2024 to 30 Sep 2026 gives $57.56bn, which reconciles to Farside's printed all-time total once October flows are added. A flows lock, not a bitcoin-price call.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-88 | Apple Sept-2026 event / iPhone 18 ProApple holds Sept-2026 keynote + iPhone 18 Pro on sale in September — ~0.95HIT — locked an Apple event in the week of 7 Sep with iPhone 18 Pro on sale before 30 Sep. Apple held its event on 9 Sep 2026 and iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale on 18 Sep.United States | 30 Sep 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-138 | RBA September 2026RBA does not cut (cash rate ≥ 4.35%); hold-vs-hike direction not predicted — ~0.95HIT — locked that the RBA would not cut (cash rate at or above 4.35%; hold-vs-hike not predicted). On 29 Sep 2026 the RBA RAISED the cash rate target by 25bp to 4.60%. A hike satisfies a no-cut lock; we did not call the direction.Australia | 29 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-100 | LA Dodgers 2026 playoff berthLA Dodgers clinch a 2026 MLB postseason berth — ~0.93HIT — locked a Dodgers 2026 postseason berth. They clinched on 14 Sep 2026 with a 4-1 win at Cincinnati.United States | 28 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-142 | Swiss National Bank September 2026SNB holds policy rate at 0.00% (40/41 economists) — ~0.93HIT — locked an SNB hold at 0.00%. On 24 Sep 2026 the Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%.Switzerland | 25 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-58 | Meta Connect smart-glassesNew smart-glasses model/HW at Connect 2026 keynoteHIT — locked a new smart-glasses model or hardware capability from the Connect 2026 keynote. On 23 Sep 2026, the Connect keynote day, Meta announced Ray-Ban Meta Audio, Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 3) and new Meta Capri and Meta Nova styles (Meta Newsroom: "Today at Connect, we announced"). Placement on the keynote stage rests on live coverage of the keynote.United States | 23 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-119 | Bank of England September 2026 decisionBoE does not cut (Bank Rate ≥3.75%) at Sept meeting — ~0.93HIT — locked that the Bank of England would not cut (Bank Rate at or above 3.75%). On 17 Sep 2026 the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6-3, with all three dissenters voting to RAISE to 4%. Exactly at the floor, which is inclusive.United Kingdom | 18 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-143 | General Mills Q1 FY27 guidance floorGeneral Mills keeps FY27 adj-EPS guidance floor ≥ $3.00 at Q1 — ~0.82HIT — locked that General Mills would hold its FY2027 adjusted-EPS guidance floor of $3.00 at Q1. On 23 Sep 2026 it reaffirmed adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00-$3.20. The floor held exactly; the criterion is inclusive.United States | 17 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-144 | US August 2026 retail salesUS Aug 2026 retail sales rise year-on-year (10-month streak) — ~0.92HIT — locked a year-on-year rise in US August 2026 retail sales. The Census Bureau's advance estimate on 16 Sep 2026 put retail and food services sales at $773.9bn seasonally adjusted, up 6.0% from August 2025. Scored on the first-published advance figure, not the later revision.United States | 16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-159 | Lennar FQ3 2026 deliveriesLennar FQ3 2026 home deliveries ≥19,000 (~7% below an already-cut guide) — ~0.92HIT — locked FQ3 2026 deliveries of at least 19,000 homes. Lennar delivered 20,840 (down 3% YoY), reported 16 Sep 2026, 9.7% above the floor.United States | 16 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-57 | Broadcom FQ3 2026 revenueFQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $29.4B (guide midpoint)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue of at least $29.4bn, the guidance midpoint. Broadcom reported $29,591m on 2 Sep 2026, +86% YoY: a margin of $191m, or 0.65%. A midpoint threshold that was genuinely in contention.United States | 15 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-50 | Oracle FQ1 FY27 cloudOracle FQ1 cloud revenue grows ≥ 58% YoY USD (guide floor)HIT — locked Q1 FY2027 cloud revenue growth of at least 58% in US dollars, the guidance floor. Oracle reported total cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) of $11,607m on 10 Sep 2026, +62% in USD and +61% in constant currency.United States | 14 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-72 | Adobe FQ3 2026 revenueAdobe FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $6.67B (guide floor)HIT — locked FQ3 2026 revenue at or above the $6.67bn guidance floor. Adobe reported a record $6,760m on 10 Sep 2026, +13% YoY and 1.35% above the floor.United States | 11 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-136 | US August 2026 CPIUS August 2026 headline CPI YoY ≤ 3.7% (vs ~3.4% consensus) — ~0.82HIT — locked US August 2026 headline CPI at or below 3.7% YoY. The BLS printed CPI-U all items +3.4% (not seasonally adjusted) on 11 Sep 2026, 0.3 points inside the ceiling.United States | 11 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-112 | ECB September 2026 decisionECB does not cut (deposit rate ≥2.25%) at Sept 10 meeting — ~0.94HIT — locked that the ECB would not cut (deposit rate at or above 2.25%). On 10 Sep 2026 it RAISED its three key rates by 25bp, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% from 16 Sep. The lock said no cut, not a hold; a hike satisfies it, and we do not claim we foresaw the hike.not yet tagged | 10 Sep 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-179 | Inditex H1 FY2026 net salesInditex H1 FY2026 net sales ≥€17.0bn (€8.7bn booked in Q1) — ~0.93HIT — locked Inditex H1 FY2026 net sales of at least €17.0bn. Inditex reported €19,755m in reported euros, 16.2% above the floor.Spain | 9 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-48 | Saxony-Anhalt 2026 electionAfD largest party by certified vote shareHIT — locked AfD as the largest party by certified second-vote share. The Landeswahlleiter's final result gives AfD 43.8% of valid Zweitstimmen (575,971 of 1,315,282) against the CDU's 17.2%, a lead of 26.6 points.Germany | 6 Sep 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-140 | Lululemon Q2 FY2026Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue ≥ $2.4bn (vs ~$2.55bn est) — ~0.85HIT — locked Q2 FY2026 net revenue of at least $2.4bn. Lululemon reported $2,415.6m on 3 Sep 2026, down 4% YoY: a margin of $15.6m, or 0.65%. Scored on the unrounded statement figure, because the headline '$2.4 billion' is rounded.Canada | 4 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-77 | Costco August 2026 net salesAugust 2026 net sales grow ≥ +5% YoYHIT — locked August 2026 net sales growth of at least +5% YoY. Costco reported $23.70bn for the four weeks to 30 Aug 2026, +9.9% from $21.56bn (released 2 Sep, after the close).United States | 3 Sep 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-137 | Bank of Canada September 2026BoC holds the overnight rate at 2.25% (no change) — ~0.95HIT — locked a hold at 2.25%. On 2 Sep 2026 the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20%).Canada | 2 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-167 | Medtronic FY2027 guidance floorMedtronic keeps FY2027 adjusted EPS floor ≥$5.90 at Q1 — ~0.88HIT — at Q1 FY27 on 1 Sep 2026 Medtronic RAISED the FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS range to $5.94-$6.00 from $5.90-$6.00. The floor did not merely hold, it moved up 4 cents. Q1 revenue $9.8bn, +13.7% reported and organic, ~200bp above the guidance midpoint; organic revenue growth guidance also raised to 7.25-7.75%. Scored against the FY2027 adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS floor as the criterion specified, not the Q1 EPS of $1.45.United States | 1 Sep 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
August 20269 locks resolved
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-21 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 Data Center recordQ2 FY27 Data Center revenue > the $75.2B Q1 recordHIT — locked Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue above the $75.2bn Q1 record; Data Center delivered $89.0bn, up 18% sequentially and 117% year-on-year, reported 26 Aug 2026. Cleared the bar by $13.8bn. Scored on the Data Center segment, the locked metric, not the $96.2bn group total.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-56 | Nvidia Q2 FY27 revenueQ2 FY27 revenue ≥ guide low end (~$89.18B)HIT — locked Q2 FY2027 total revenue at or above the ~$89.18bn guidance low end; group revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% sequentially and 106% year-on-year, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin both 75.0%, reported 26 Aug 2026. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the $89.0bn Data Center segment — the two figures sit close together and P-21 locks the other one.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-71 | Salesforce Q2 FY27 revenueSalesforce Q2 FY2027 revenue ≥ $11.27B (guide floor)HIT, but the tightest in the series — locked Q2 FY2027 revenue at or above the $11.27bn guidance floor; Salesforce reported $11.35bn, up 11%, clearing by $80m or ~0.7%. Consensus was $11.32bn, so the floor held with very little room. Full-year guidance was raised to $46.1–$46.4bn. Reported 26 Aug 2026.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-147 | CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 revenueCrowdStrike FQ2 FY27 total revenue ≥$1.40bn (below guide low end) — ~0.94HIT — locked FQ2 FY2027 TOTAL revenue at or above $1.40bn; CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.47bn, up 26%, with ARR up 25% to $5.84bn, reported 26 Aug 2026. NOTE the metric trap this brief anticipated: SUBSCRIPTION revenue came in at exactly $1.40bn. The criterion explicitly named total revenue and excluded subscription revenue, so the call clears at $1.47bn; scoring the sibling would have landed precisely on the threshold.United States | 26 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-76 | Walmart Q2 FY27 net salesQ2 FY27 total net sales grow ≥ +3.5% YoY (guide floor)HIT — locked total net sales growth ≥+3.5% YoY; Q2 FY2027 total revenue rose 5.9% (+5.1% constant currency), net sales +5% cc, reported 20 Aug 2026, full-year guidance raised. Honest note: Walmart MISSED Street expectations on US comparable sales in the same quarter — we scored our locked metric (total net sales), not the quarter's overall reception.United States | 20 Aug 2026locked 23 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-139 | Alibaba Cloud June quarterAlibaba Cloud Intelligence external revenue grows ≥ 30% YoY — ~0.85HIT — locked Cloud external revenue growth ≥30% YoY; external revenue growth accelerated to 45% in the June 2026 quarter (segment revenue RMB48,437m / US$7,139m), reported 20 Aug 2026. DISCLOSURE: Alibaba renamed the segment from Cloud Intelligence Group to AI Cloud and Compute Services and folded in the T-Head chip arm, so the 45% is the successor segment's external growth. The call clears the 30% floor either way — pre-rename external growth was already 40% in the March quarter.China | 20 Aug 2026locked 13 Aug 2026 | Hit |
| P-126 | Home Depot FQ2 2026 compsHome Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales ≥ 0% — ~0.82HIT — locked comparable sales ≥0%; FQ2 2026 comparable sales printed +1.7% (US comps +1.3%) on sales of $47.9bn, reported 18 Aug 2026, guidance reaffirmed. Scored on TOTAL comparable sales, the locked metric — not the US-only figure and not the +5.7% total sales growth.United States | 18 Aug 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-94 | Disney streaming FQ3 2026Disney DTC/streaming operating income positive in fiscal Q3 2026 — ~0.88HIT - Disney fiscal-Q3 streaming operating income +$712M (positive, more than doubled YoY).United States | 12 Aug 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-70 | Circle USDC circulationCircle USDC in circulation at Q2'26 quarter-end ≥ $70BHIT - Circle USDC in circulation $73.3B at Q2 quarter-end (Jun 30), >=$70B.United States | 11 Aug 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |