The Prediction Series
Every lock, and every score.
Each forecast is committed to a public criterion before the outcome is known, and scored against that exact criterion afterwards — never against a directional impression. Misses are published in full.
345 locks · 80 resolved · 93.75% hit rate · the running scoreboard →
— Resolved
61–80 of 80
| Ref | The locked call | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-128 | Morgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenueMorgan Stanley Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $16.0bn (vs ~$19.1bn consensus) — ~0.90HIT - Morgan Stanley Q2 net revenue $21.3bn, >=$16.0bn. | 15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-134 | BlackRock Q2 2026 AUMBlackRock Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM ≥ $13.0T (vs $13.9T end-Q1) — ~0.92HIT - BlackRock Q2 quarter-end AUM $15.345T, >=$13.0T. | 15 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-97 | JPMorgan Q2 2026 net incomeJPMorgan Q2 2026 net income ≥ $12bn — ~0.88HIT - JPMorgan Q2 net income $21.2bn reported ($16.9bn ex-items), >=$12bn. | 14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-107 | Boeing H1 2026 deliveriesBoeing H1 2026 commercial deliveries ≥ 285 — ~0.91HIT - Boeing H1 commercial deliveries 314, >=285 (best first half since 2018). | 14 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-120 | Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenueGoldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue ≥ $14.0bn (vs ~$15.7bn consensus) — ~0.92HIT - Goldman Sachs Q2 net revenue $20.34bn, >=$14.0bn. | 14 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-03 | India June CPIHeadline 4.6% YoY (above ~4.5% consensus)MISS - locked 4.6% (above the ~4.5% consensus); India June CPI printed 4.38%, below both. | 13 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-14 | Wimbledon men's singlesChampion is NOT Alcaraz (withdrew, not in draw)HIT - the champion was NOT Alcaraz: Jannik Sinner beat Alexander Zverev to retain the title. | 12 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-18 | Wimbledon 2026 men's (draw simulation)Sinner ~51% title (sim 41% / market 58%) — 50k-draw Monte-CarloHIT - the sim's favourite Sinner (locked ~51%) won the title, defending his crown. | 12 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-131 | Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 EPSDelta Q2 2026 EPS ≥ $0.75 (vs $1.00–1.50 guide) — ~0.85HIT - Delta Q2 adjusted EPS $1.56 (GAAP $2.44), >=$0.75. | 10 Jul 2026locked 26 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-43 | TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenueQ1 FY27 consolidated USD revenue in $7.55–7.85BHIT - TCS Q1 FY27 USD revenue ~$7.58bn, inside $7.55-7.85bn. | 9 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-118 | PepsiCo Q2 2026 organic growthPepsiCo Q2 2026 organic revenue growth ≥1% — ~0.87HIT - PepsiCo Q2 organic revenue growth +2.4%, >=1%. | 9 Jul 2026locked 25 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-11 | 2026 Emmy nominationsThe Bear ≥ 1 major comedy nominationHIT - The Bear earned an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination (25 total noms). | 8 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-80 | OPEC+ August 2026 outputOPEC+ announces an August 2026 quota increase (>0 bpd vs July) — ~0.82HIT - OPEC+ announced an August output increase of 188,000 bpd (>0). | 6 Jul 2026locked 24 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-13 | F1 — Antonelli's title leadStill standings leader after the British GPHIT - Antonelli remained championship leader after the British GP (Leclerc won; Antonelli P16/no points after a wheel-shield failure); lead trimmed to 25 pts over Russell. Criterion = still leader, TRUE. | 5 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-05 | Tesla Q2 deliveries424k (primary bucket 400–425k)MISS - locked the 400-425k bucket; Tesla delivered 480,126 in Q2, well above the band (a bucket miss - Tesla also beat the ~406k Street). | 2 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Miss |
| P-66 | Australia Women — T20 WC finalAustralia Women reach the ICC Women's T20 WC 2026 final — ~0.72HIT - Australia Women reached (and won) the ICC Women's T20 WC final, beating England by 7 wickets. | 2 Jul 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-09 | BYD Q2 NEV sales> 950k units (Apr+May already public = 704.6k)HIT - BYD Q2 NEV sales 1.108M units, >950k. | 1 Jul 2026locked 20 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-65 | Micron FQ3 2026 revenueMicron FQ3 2026 revenue ≥ $32.75B (guide floor)HIT - Micron fiscal-Q3 revenue $41.5bn, >=$32.75bn (record, +346% YoY on the AI-memory boom). | 24 Jun 2026locked 21 Jun 2026 | Hit |
| P-02 | US–Iran 14-point MoUP(signed-as-drafted, by Jun 16) = 100%Headline MISS (Brier 1.0) — signed Jun 17 as a modified text. Secondary: ~88% document/clause match; the HEU clause we ranked #1-to-slip was the actual slip. We published the miss. | 17 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Miss |
| P-01 | US CPI energy commodities (May print)+39.65% YoY, band [+33.4%, +43.5%]HIT — locked +39.65% [33.4–43.5%]; energy-commodities printed ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, the dominant component), inside the band, ~1pt from the point. Scored against energy-COMMODITIES, not the broad energy index (+23.5%, a different series). | 10 Jun 2026locked 26 May 2026 | Hit |